Welcome to FedEx Air and Ground fantasy analysis. Each week, we'll highlight some favorable quarterback plays and a few running backs that could prove valuable for fantasy owners based on matchups, projected game flow, and most essentially, talent. With Week 5 in the books and another sample of fantasy points against data to work with, here are a few options to keep your eye on Week 6. These players might just win your week.
He walks into an ideal situation for a veteran quarterback: a home tilt against the Jets' 31st-ranked pass defense that allows 302.4 passing yards per game. I wrote last week in this space about how the Jets have been susceptible to giving up deep completions, and the Steelers attacked that weakness early in Week 5 when Ben Roethlisberger hit Sammie Coates for a 72-yard touchdown on Pittsburgh's third snap of the game.
Palmer and the Cardinals have a deep threat too, maybe you've heard of him before: John Brown. New York is second in the league in pass plays of 40-plus yards allowed this year, with at least one in each game so far and eight total. Palmer could go deep early to challenge this weakness the way the Steelers did. In addition to the huge plays, the Jets have given up more than 20 points in every game this season.
Flacco, who has 215 pass attempts this season, most in the NFL, is averaging just 5.9 pass yards per attempts which ties him for the fewest in the league with ... Blaine Gabbert. In case you can't do the math yourself, that is a terrible statistic. Now that the handcuffs are off though, Flacco should be looking to take advantage of the biggest weakness in the Gaints' defense: the secondary. New York ranks 20th in pass defense in addition to their dead-last ranking in sacks, 30th in third down defense and last place ranking in turnovers. That sounds like an ideal situation for a Ravens offense, currently fifth in passing despite recent struggles, to produce through the air. The Giants have also allowed 15 plays of 20-plus yards in their last three games, and have surrendered 25.3 points per game in that span.
McCoy has proven that he's virtually matchup proof thus far, putting up solid numbers against some of the league's better rush defenses:
That's some impressive production to say the least. McCoy has played better this season than he did last year, too. His rushing yards per game is up to 89.4 from 74.6 last season, as well as his average yards per carry which has increased from 4.4 last season to 5.3.
Pretty much every factor ahead of this matchup points to a huge game for McCoy. Through five games, McCoy ranks 10th in rush attempts (85), is fourth in rushing yards (447) and is fantasy's sixth-highest scoring running back in standard leagues with a 15.6 fppg average. His strong start has the Buffalo rushing offense ranked third in the NFL, averaging 137.2 rushing yards per game as a team. San Francisco's rush defense is allowing 146.8 rushing yards per game, good enough to rank 31st in the league. The 49ers have been nothing short of abysmal against running backs, allowing 501 rushing yards and five touchdowns to the position over the last four weeks.
Everything is set up perfectly for McCoy to gash the 49ers, so fantasy owners should be doing all that they can to make room for him in their lineups.
From a fantasy football perspective, it's now or never for Lamar Miller. Despite ranking fourth in rush attempts (101) and ninth in rushing yards (371), the Houston running back has just 45.3 fantasy points through five games which ranks him 22nd at the position. His 9.1 fppg average is fewer than even the unreliable and mediocre Matt Jones.
Fortunately, Miller this week faces a Colts defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of five games thus far. Indianapolis also allows 109 rushing yards per game and has surrendered the fourth-most rushing touchdowns, five. If he sees his normal volume (throw last week out) of about 23 attempts per game, Miller should be able to produce RB1-type numbers.
The Colts have been destroyed by running backs. In Week 1, the Lions' committee racked up 229 total yards against them. Week 2 saw C.J. Anderson post over 90 rush yards and a score against them. Melvin Gordon put up 78 yards and a rushing touchdown against Indy in Week 3. T.J. Yeldon posted 100 yards in London against the Colts. And last week, Jordan Howard racked up over 163 total yards and a receiving touchdown in Indianapolis. All of that equates to 24.48 fppg allowed to opposing runners.
If Miller and the Texans cannot get their stagnant offense going on Sunday night, it may be time to throw in the towel for Miller's fantasy value. But the outlook for this week is bright, so make sure Miller is slotted into your fantasy lineup with this favorable matchup on tap.
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