Julius Thomas' fantasy value decreases with Jaguars

Tight end will be the thinnest of the top four offensive skill positions in fantasy football next season. Julius Thomas' move to Jacksonville won't help improve it, either.

According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, the veteran has agreed to terms with the Jaguars on a deal that will pay him around $9 million a year. And while the move adds another weapon to what should be a much improved pass attack, it also makes Thomas a potential bust candidate from a fantasy standpoint.

Over the last two seasons, the Portland State product has found the end zone 24 times (27 games) with a combined 33 red-zone targets. Of course, that was in an offense that found itself in the red area a lot under future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. Marcedes Lewis, the top tight end in Jacksonville the last two seasons, saw a combined 12 red-zone targets (19 games). Thomas is also going from the seventh-ranked passing offense, according to Pro Football Focus, to the NFL's worst (32nd).

Oh, and did I also mention the downgrade at quarterback from Manning to Blake Bortles?

Not to be even more of a "Negative Nancy," but there's nothing to like about Thomas' landing spot from a fantasy standpoint. In fact, I'm moving him from the No. 3 tight end spot (behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham) to No. 7 behind the likes of Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates and Martellus Bennett. That puts him into the middle- to late-round conversation, but I wouldn't be optimistic about his production curve in 2015.

In Denver, the Broncos will be tied to free agent Owen Daniels because of his ties with new coach Gary Kubiak. Though he's on the downside of his career, Daniels would still be on the No. 1 tight end radar in Kubiak's tight-end friendly offense. Re-signing Virgil Green is another possibility, though he's more proficient as a pass-blocker than a pass-catcher.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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