By Ted Rossman
High Fives
In this section, we examine five strong but unheralded performances from the previous week and determine whether these players are likely to remain hot.
- Kawika Mitchell (LB, NYG): Mitchell had a huge game in Week 16 at Buffalo, making six tackles (three solo), two sacks, a forced fumble and an interception that he returned 20 yards for a key touchdown. However, in Week 17 he faces a New England offense that allows among the fewest sacks and turnovers in the NFL.
- Nick Greisen (LB, BAL): In his first start of 2007, Greisen amassed 10 tackles (all solo) in place of Ray Lewis (finger) on Sunday. He averaged more than five tackles per game in 2004 and 2005 as a full-timer with the Giants and is one of the few Ravens who looks motivated at the moment. He's worth a look in Week 17 against the Steelers if Lewis misses consecutive games.
- Brent Grimes (DB, ATL): In his NFL debut, Grimes made 11 tackles (10 solo) on Sunday at Arizona. The Falcons have a banged-up secondary, Grimes is playing for a 2008 role and faces a Seattle team in Week 17 that has nothing to play for. Grimes is worth a look on the waiver wire of deep leagues.
- Sione Pouha (DT, NYJ): Pouha led the Jets with eight tackles (all solo) in Week 16, an impressive total for a defensive tackle. However, he has only started one game this season (Week 14) and has only exceeded three tackles in three games. Pouha benefited in Week 16 against a run-happy Tennessee offense (36 rushes, 22 passes). Pass on him in most leagues.
- Igor Olshansky (DE, SD): He recorded four tackles (all solo), a sack and a forced fumble in Monday's victory over the Broncos. Olshansky, however, isn't a prime IDP because he is averaging just more than three tackles per game with 3.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. You can do better in most leagues.
Trend Watch
Here, we look at trends and matchups savvy owners can exploit in the upcoming week.
- The 49ers (at Cleveland), Bears (vs. New Orleans), Chiefs (at the N.Y. Jets), Dolphins (vs. Cincinnati), Falcons (vs. Seattle), Jets (vs. Kansas City), Panthers (at Tampa Bay), Raiders (vs. San Diego) and Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh) all harbor uncertain or undesirable quarterback situations in Week 17 because of injuries, ineffectiveness or both. All of those opposing defenses warrant an upgrade.
- The league's worst offenses (in terms of points per game) are San Francisco, Atlanta and Kansas City. Those teams, respectively, visit Cleveland, play host to Seattle and visit the N.Y. Jets in Week 17.
- It's no secret that teams that need to win to improve their playoff hopes or seeding are better bets for strong IDP performances. Those teams are: Minnesota (hopes), New Orleans (hopes), Pittsburgh (seeding), San Diego (seeding), Tennessee (hopes) and Washington (hopes). An honorable mention goes to New England, which has wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC but is expected to play to win to secure the NFL's first 16-0 regular season.
- Looking for sacks in Week 17? Try the Packers (vs. Detroit, which has allowed a league-high 54 sacks), Jets (vs. Kansas City, which has allowed 52 sacks), Chiefs (at the N.Y. Jets, who have allowed 50 sacks) and Browns (vs. San Francisco, which has also allowed 50 sacks). Teams to avoid are Chicago (vs. New Orleans, the toughest team to sack), Miami (vs. Cincinnati, the second-toughest team to sack), Detroit (at Green Bay, tied for the third-toughest team to sack) and 49ers (at Cleveland, tied for the third-toughest team to sack).
- Wondering who is toughest to intercept? Tampa Bay (vs. Carolina) has only been intercepted seven times, while Jacksonville (at Houston) has thrown eight picks and New England (at the N.Y. Giants) nine. The easiest teams to pick off? St. Louis (at Arizona) and Arizona (vs. St. Louis).
- Slippery fingers, anyone? The Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh) lead the league with 25 fumbles lost. Houston (17, vs. Jacksonville) and San Francisco (17, at Cleveland) have also had trouble holding onto the football. The Colts (vs. Tennessee) have lost four fumbles, the fewest in the NFL. The Cowboys (five lost, at Washington), Patriots (six lost, at the N.Y. Giants) and Jets (six lost, vs. Kansas City) have also been stingy in this category.
Whiter the weather
Because bad weather usually means fewer points and more turnovers, you need to know where IDPs could benefit from the elements. Here are some sites where the weather could be a significant factor. Keep in mind that the forecasts can change leading up to gameday.
Wind, snow, sleet and rain have affected several NFL games this month. Four Week 17 games will be immune from the elements thanks to climate-controlled venues: Seattle at Atlanta, Jacksonville at Houston, St. Louis at Arizona and Tennessee at Indianapolis. At press time, almost all of the outdoor games were expected to experience some sort of precipitation on gameday.
On Sunday, steady rain is expected in East Rutherford, N.J., (Chiefs at Jets), Philadelphia (Bills at Eagles), Washington (Cowboys at Redskins) and Baltimore (Steelers at Ravens). Mixed precipitation is forecast for the 49ers-Browns game. Rain showers may affect the Patriots at N.Y. Giants (Saturday), Chargers at Raiders and Panthers at Bucs. A few snow showers are forecast for Green Bay (Lions at Packers) and Chicago (Saints at Bears).
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