I'm all about math. Okay, not really. It was my worst subject in school, actually. Check that, second-worst behind science. Anyway, each week we're going to take a look at some very special numbers and see how they relate to the current fantasy week and also for the future. And I may get in some stuff outside football too. So buckle in like you're Walter White caught in an SUV between Hank and Todd's people. And by the way -- if you own Hank or Gomez in a 'Breaking Bad' fantasy league, start looking at some potential add/drops.
3: Number of 'new-face' tight ends I'm excited about for 2013: Over. Phenomenal season debuts for Jared Cook, Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron, who are all rising stars and must be started unless your TE is named Graham, Witten, Davis or Gonzalez. Brandon Myers came through late in the Giants loss to the Cowboys, so he's my 8th ranked TE for Week 2. JerMichael Finley is a new old face, and he comes in at number 9. He looks to have returned from fantasy banishment for Green Bay. And if Finley returned from banishment, Kellen Winslow came back from General-Zod-shot-into-deep-space-forever banishment for the Jets. There's much more talent at the position than we thought going into the season. Can they keep it up? Cook and Cameron are their team's No. 1 targets in the passing game, and Thomas catches passes from Peyton Manning. I'm high on Myers and Finley being right with this group as well. Now, instead of 6-8 owners in your league playing plug-and-play every week at the TE position, it's only going to be 1 or 2. You have to get a TE who produces, because everyone else is going to have one.
10: How many fantasy points Terrelle Pryor is going to get you with his legs every week. Over. He's got carte blanche to run whenever he wants to, which is great for him, not so great for Darren McFadden or any of the Raiders WR's. He's got a lot of Cam Newton in him in that he'll pull it down whenever he feels like it. He's not going to run for 100 yards every week, but will he give you between 60-70 and a touchdown? Sure he will. That's incredibly valuable considering even if he has a pedestrian-type day throwing the football (say 10 points, but probably more), he'll hover around the 20 point mark for fantasy each game. And against Jacksonville? You have to start him unless you already have an elite QB like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick or RG III.
Young TEs lead waiver picks
QBs were strong in Week 1, but two young tight ends caught Michael Fabiano's eye as hot waiver wire options. More ...
15: How many fantasy points for David Wilson against the Broncos. Over. Certain situations in fantasy, you can throw statistics out the window. This is one of those times. Wilson knows this is his Major-League-Baseball-Steve-Howe last chance to be the Giants feature back for 2013 and beyond. If he puts the football on the ground, he's done. Hopefully, this week he watched 'The Program' where they made Omar Epps carry a football around campus to drill into him how important it is to hold onto the ball. Last year, Tom Coughlin taught him a lesson in the Giants opening game. After an early fumble, it was weeks until he was part of the Giants offense. Point taken by Wilson, who really came on the back half of last year. Maybe Wilson is the kind of guy you have to keep the pedal down on, but it doesn't matter. He knows this is it for him. There's no one else on the Giants who's going to cut into his carries as long as he doesn't fumble. And he'll come through with a huge week that will include one very long touchdown. Play him with confidence. But…also have a backup plan. If fumble-itis strikes, pick up Andre Brown off the waiver wire, because when he returns in Week 7 he'll be the feature back.
20: How many points a quarterback must total in 2013 for it to be an acceptable fantasy start.*Over.* Two years ago, 15 points was decent enough production from your starting fantasy QB. Last season, it jumped up to 20. This year, it's going to be towards 25. There's so many QB's every week that will put up 25+ points -- including fantasy No. 2's like Eli Manning and Philip Rivers - that a quarter century will be the norm. Eight quarterbacks were over 20 points in Week 1. 23 signal-callers topped the 15 point mark which shows you where the direction is going. There's going to be less 'must-start' QB's than there's been in recent history, and more 'matchup-based' starts because of this. So don't be surprised if you're starting Eli Manning over Cam Newton more than as just a bye-week replacement.
50: Number of tweets I got Tuesday about the values of Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson.*Over.*Chip Kelly's offense was a ton of fun to watch in Week 1, and it will be for the next few weeks. However two things are going to happen to the Eagles offense. The first thing is that the rest of the NFL is going to catch up to it once we get into October so it's production will decrease a little bit. The second thing is that in every game they're going to hit a wall because they're exhausted from going as hard as they can for the first two quarters. So what does that mean in fantasy? It means I would try to trade Vick and Jackson while they're value is at the highest because the odds of them keeping up this pace through 16 games is very small. And it's not like the two of them are the most durable players on the planet, either. But the hidden benefit is that I'm excited about any offense facing Philadelphia, because their style of play lends itself to a shootout every week. So if I'm debating about my flex play and my player is facing the Eagles? Then I'm defaulting to putting that guy in my lineup.
Jason Smith hosts NFL Fantasy Live on the NFL Network and writes fantasy and other pith for NFL.com. Talk to him on Twitter @howaboutafresca, and listen to his Fantasy Podcast with Michael Fabiano and Elliot Harrison every week on nfl.com. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.
