Comparatively, this should be a blowout.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2) haven't lost since Week 5. They're ranked fourth in the NFL in passing, and seventh in total offense (in terms of yards per game). They hold an iron grip on the AFC North as we approach the final month of the season.
There's also Pittsburgh's decimation of Tennessee on Thursday Night Football, and the Steelers' 15-point win over Cincinnati back in Week 7.
Which Steelers team will we see on Monday night? Well, it is December, and despite last week's airborne shootout, a shift to winter, midwestern football is likely in the cards. Paul Brown Stadium isn't exactly a fearsome environment for opposing teams, but (even with Monday night's low of 49 degrees) it gets bitter along the Ohio River this time of year.
Here are four things to watch for in Week 13's Monday night showdown:
- Can Pittsburgh put together a game that matches its record? At 9-2, the Steelers are among prestigious company in the AFC, yet the majority of their wins have been less than convincing. With weapons like Antonio Brown (who is questionable for Monday night's game), Martavis Bryant, Le'Veon Bell and the emergent JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh is armed to the teeth. The Steelers boast a top-10 offense in total yardage. And yet, they frequently play to the level of their competition.
The aforementioned close calls are prime examples of this. Cincinnati is a familiar divisional opponent, making this contest a little tougher than usual. We're also in the final month of the season -- it's time for the Steelers to win over some skeptics by proving they're as good as their record implies.
- Was last week a fluke for Joe Mixon? The rookie running back has been one of the league's most inefficient runners this season, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry despite also showing flashes of potential greatness. Then he played against the Browns, who own a maybe-good defense but were not good against the Bengals, specifically when Mixon was on the field. The rookie rushed for a career-high 114 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries, which contributed to one of Cincinnati's best offensive outputs of the year in a 30-16 win over the still-winless Browns.
Can he do it again against a much better opponent? Statistically, Pittsburgh is only one place ahead of Cleveland in rushing yards allowed per game, but poses a much greater challenge to Mixon and the Bengals. The success (or failure) of Mixon, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill will go a long way toward determining how close this contest ends up being.
Mixon had complained publicly about his lack of carries after the two teams met in Week 7 -- a game in which Bell rushed for 134 yards on 35 carries, while Mixon finished with 48 yards on just seven totes -- which prompted Bell's subtweets, fired into the interwebs while Bell was waiting to face the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football.
For the record: Bell leads the league in rushing, even after the rest of the NFL has already played through Week 13. Bell's also second in the league in attempts per game with 22.9. Expect another heavy dose of Bell against the NFL's 29th-ranked rushing defense.
- Will the road ghost get Roethlisberger? Big Ben has largely escaped this long-running demon this season, but over his career, he's significantly better at home than he is on the road, owning similar passer ratings and completion percentages, but going 59-40 and posting a 136-93 TD-INT ratio. Those are still solid numbers, but pale in comparison to his 74-23 home record and 185-79 ratio in those games. Without going too deep into the QB Winz value, Pittsburgh's offense is simply better at home, and has been for much of Roethlisberger's career.
Monday night's game is not in Pennsylvania. Against Cincinnati's fifth-ranked pass defense, perhaps Pittsburgh would be better served to run the ball more. Then again, one deep completion to Brown on a route he likely ran while toasting Adam Jones could wipe all of this away. This is why they play the games, and why we watch them.