Just like last week, I am going to focus on upside players that don't appear in the median projection top seven by position below. Also, let me know what you'd like answered for next week. I want to make sure to make this as useful as possible. I always try to answer questions that I would want to know, but it's better if you tell me! Good luck in your playoffs!/p>
1) Projections
Note: These projections are based on my stat-line projection for each player translated into standard fantasy scoring. These are the median values.
Tip: Use the order and points as a way to compare ... e.g. if a running back is projected to earn 1.5 points more than the guy behind him, but only 0.15 points less than the guy in front of him, take the magnitude into consideration. Also, asterisks (*) mean watch out for injury report changes, but always do that anyway, even if there doesn't happen to be an asterisk.
Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson, Seahawks (18.8)
Drew Brees, Saints (18.7)
Andy Dalton, Bengals (18.4)
Matthew Stafford, Lions (18.3)
Tom Brady, Patriots (18.2)
Matt Ryan, Falcons (17.9)
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (17.9)
Running Backs:
David Johnson, Cardinals (19.8)
Le'Veon Bell, Steelers (18.9)
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (16.6)
DeMarco Murray, Titans (15.5)
Melvin Gordon, Chargers (14.7)
Matt Forte, Jets (14.6)
Jeremy Hill, Bengals (14.0)
Wide Receivers:
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (14.4)
Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (14.0)
Antonio Brown, Steelers (13.5)
Julio Jones, Falcons (12.4)
Dez Bryant, Cowboys (11.4)
T.Y. Hilton, Colts (11.3)
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (10.8)
Tight Ends:
Greg Olsen, Panthers (9.2)
Tyler Eifert, Bengals (9.1)
Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (7.9)
Antonio Gates, Chargers (6.7)
Zach Ertz, Eagles (6.5)
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (6.2)
Delanie Walker, Titans (6.2)
Kickers
Dan Bailey, Cowboys (10.06)
Cairo Santos, Chiefs (8.80)
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (8.26)
Kai Forbath, Vikings (7.90)
Robbie Gould, Giants (7.87)
Matt Prater, Lions (7.87)
Nick Novak, Texans (7.82)
D/STs
Minnesota Vikings (11.1)
Atlanta Falcons (8.89)
Miami Dolphins (8.83)
Arizona Cardinals (8.82)
New England Patriots (8.78)
Houston Texans (8.25)
Dallas Cowboys (8.21)
2) The Saints' Michael Thomas leads all rookies in targets (89), receptions (69), receiving yards (831) and receiving touchdowns (seven).
I know after last week in a seemingly-plus matchup his 42 total yards off four receptions (five targets) seemed a little "meh." However, for the season he averages 5.8 receptions off of 7.4 targets yielding 69.3 receiving yards per game.
Fantasy Impact: I know he faces the Bucs defense who are top five against WR1s and ranked in the low 20s against WR2s. I know they are most vulnerable to passes made to running backs, which wouldn't seem to boost Thomas much, but this should be a high scoring game with lots of opportunities. I have Thomas' median at five receptions for 72 yards and just better than 50 percent odds of seeing the end zone. That's the median ... his upside case would put him in the top 10 at his position for the week. Note: Brandin Cooks' median and upside projection are both below Thomas' for me this week.
3) The Panthers' defense averages 369.6 total yards against (tied for ninth-most), with 276.8 net passing yards allowed per game (third-most) as well as 26.8 points allowed (fifth-most) for the season.
It looks like Luke Kuechly will return, which is great news for the Panthers' defense and not-so-great for Philip Rivers and company. However, the numbers above are season-long averages and when broken down by position, the Panthers are toughest on running backs and more generous to WR1s and tight ends. Kuechly's return will not impact the WR1 as much as other places.
Fantasy Impact:Tyrell Williams is in my top 12 wide receivers in the upside case (and the top 18 median). Other wide receivers not to overlook (remember this is upside-seeking): Pierre Garcon, Sammy Watkins, Kenny Britt, Sterling Shepard. And also some running backs: Rob Kelly, Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore, Devontae Booker, Isaiah Crowell.
4) Two snacks: Sneaky plays in presumably bad matchups
4a)Stefon Diggs has lined up in the slot on about 60 percent of his snaps., a place presumably free of the Jags' dynamic and physical rookie defensive back Jalen Ramsey. Diggs averages 9.6 targets for 7.5 receptions and 80.6 yards per game.
4b) The Bills' defense rates in the bottom quarter of the NFL against tight ends. Ladarius Green's 110 yards and a touchdown last week show that the Steelers are willing to use him in the passing game (in his first three games he only had a total of 97 yards). If you are looking for a tight end, then consider Green. Remember, he came from San Diego where big-bodied tight ends are a fixture in the passing game. Maybe this can now be said of the Steelers.
5) Three If/Thens: Injuries
If the Jets' defensive lineman Mohammed Wilkerson doesn't play (he's questionable) then give 49ers' running back Carlos Hyde's projections a bump (he would have my highest ceiling for all rushers this week in this case.) Over the past four games, his averages are: 16.3 carries, 64.3 rushing yards, 2.3 receptions and 15 receiving yards per game -- but no touchdowns. Hyde also gets stuffed on 13.8 percent of his runs (stuffed is tackled behind the line of scrimmage. For context, think of anything lower than 8 percent being better than average). If Wilkerson is out, Hyde has a better opportunity to earn yards.
If the Bills' DT Kyle Williams doesn't play, then give a boost to the Steelers' Le'Veon Bell. It's not like you wouldn't start Bell in your season-long roster, but if you are playing in formats like Perfect Challenge it's worth considering the improvement to Bell's upside if Williams is ruled out. Oh and remember stuff percentage from the note above ... Bell leads the league at 3.9 percent ... his ability to gain yards after contact drives this number. The No. 2 running back in this metric, Latavius Murray, has a 4.9 percent stuff rate.
Keep an eye on the Eagles receivers. If Jordan Matthews plays, then consider him as a strong upside candidate. His 5.2 receptions off 8.2 targets for 62.4 yards per game averages often comes from production in the slot. You know who is not often defending the slot for Washington? Josh Norman. Usually, it's Kendall Fuller who has been leaky in coverage of late.
