I can't believe it's already Week 13! This week I am focusing on players with high ceilings that aren't in my top sevens at each position (listed in No. 1 below). To be clear, those lists are based on median projections like normal, but all the other players listed are ranked in terms of my upside projection. In other words, players that could help you edge your way into your playoffs, or provide exceptional value in a format like Perfect Challenge.
Note: These projections are based on my stat-line projection for each player translated into standard fantasy scoring. These are the median values.
Tip: Use the order and points as a way to compare ... e.g. if a running back is projected to earn 1.5 points more than the guy behind him, but only 0.15 points less than the guy in front of him, take the magnitude into consideration. Also, asterisks (*) mean watch out for injury report changes, but always do that anyway, even if there doesn't happen to be an asterisk.
Fantasy Impact: Also fun, but this mostly served as a way to get into a game I wanted to talk about. First of all, if you need a tight end to replace Gronk and Coby Fleener is available, grab him. He has a great matchup and a high ceiling. In fact, he's the TE6 in my upside model. Speaking of, Eric Ebron is the TE1 in the upside model. Brandin Cooks is my upside WR15, Willie Snead is the WR26, and if Marvin Jones (questionable) doesn't play, then Golden Tate goes from WR23 to WR16 and Anquan Boldin jumps into the top 25 as well. Oh, and Mark Ingram is still on the injury report, so watch this one closely because Tim Hightower's value would take a huge leap if Ingram can't go.
4) Two snacks: Upside worth chasing at WR and RB
5) Three If/Thens: Injuries
If you're wondering how the loss of Gronk impacted the Pats offense in my model, here's the quick breakdown. Since Gronk lines up in any one of six positions and we can see the trends without Gronk on the field, it decreased Tom Brady's projection by about 20 yards, increased Martellus Bennett's, increased Edelman and Mitchell's projections (though three of those four are currently questionable) and increased the overall run game volume. Right now (as of Friday) these are the MEDIAN numbers:
Brady: 271, 2 TD
Edelman: 6 rec, 67 yards, better than 50/50 for a TD
Bennett: 4 rec, 44 yards
Blount: 78 rushing yards, better than 50/50 for a TD
Lewis: 26 rushing yards, 3 rec, 28 rec yards