The National Football League has been abuzz in recent weeks, as two blockbuster trades have shaken up the top of the 2016 NFL Draft. With those deals in the books, we can predict with relative certainty that both the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles are going to select a quarterback ... either Jared Goff out of California or Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.
We can also predict that there's a good chance neither will make a massive impact in fantasy football as rookies. Furthermore, based on historical data from the last decade, there's no guarantee that either Goff or Wentz will ever be more than mid-tier fantasy signal-callers. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see both players thrive at the next level. The more elite quarterbacks in the league, the easier it is to prognosticate the future. But picking a field general in Round 1 hasn't always equated to a lot of success for pro franchises ... or fantasy football owners.
Since 2006, a total of 26 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Six of them came off the board with the No. 1 overall pick: Jameis Winston (2015), Andrew Luck (2012), Cam Newton (2011), Sam Bradford (2010), Matthew Stafford (2009) and JaMarcus Russell (2007). Luck (eighth) and Newton (fourth) both finished in the top eight in fantasy points as rookies, while Winston ranked a respectable 13th. Bradford (20th), Stafford (40th) and Russell (62nd) had less success.
Now let's take a look at quarterbacks drafted in the top five. Aside from the aforementioned six, Marcus Mariota (2015), Blake Bortles (2014), Robert Griffin III (2012), Mark Sanchez (2009), Matt Ryan (2008) and Vince Young (2006) were picked from No. 2 to No. 5. Two members of that group (Griffin III, Young) finished in the top 10 as rookies. None of the other four finished higher than 15th (Ryan).
So, of the 12 quarterbacks picked in the top five in the NFL Draft over the last 10 years, four (33 percent) finished in the top 10. That's not a terrible percentage, but take a deeper look at the players who had strong rookie campaigns ... Newton, Luck, Griffin III, Young. What do these quarterbacks have in common?
That's right, all four of them had some level of success as runners.
Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns as a rookie, so almost 43 percent of his fantasy points came on the ground. RG3 recorded 815 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, which accounted for almost 40 percent of his points. Young put up 553 yards and seven scores as a runner in his rookie season, which made up for almost half of his fantasy production. While Luck rushed for a mediocre 255 yards in his first pro campaign, he also scored five times on the ground.
Advantage Wentz, who rushed for a combined 936 yards and 12 touchdowns in his final two seasons with the Bison. Of course, he put up those numbers in the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) against teams like the Montana Grizzlies, the South Dakota Jackrabbits and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. As for Goff, he rushed for a combined minus-114 yards with one touchdown during his time with the Golden Bears.
Now let's look at the entire first round of quarterbacks drafted over the last decade.
Taking into account the 26 quarterbacks and their entire respective NFL careers (or a combined 114 "seasons"), there were 23 top-10 finishes based on fantasy points. Another 28 quarterbacks had seasons that ranked them in the 11-20 range at their position. The remaining 63 signal-caller campaigns resulted in a fantasy finish that was 21st or worse.
So of the field generals picked in the first round since 2006, more than 55 percent of their career seasons resulted in a fantasy point total that would have ranked them outside of the top 20. What's more, a mere 20 percent of those seasons would have been good enough to consider them No. 1 fantasy quarterbacks based on points.
I understand that these totals include the numbers (or lack thereof) from signal-callers like Russell, Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart. But keep in mind that NFL teams believed these players were worth a first-round pick (or the top pick in the case of Russell) before their NFL careers went poof.
So for all the excitement around Goff and Wentz and all the debate about which quarterback should be picked No. 1 overall, that excitement can turn to disappointment in a virtual blink of an eye ... both on the field and in fantasy land.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!
