If you have Doug Martin and are in the fantasy playoffs, here's the good news: Tampa Bay is going up against the Saints in a game that is anticipated to be a high-scoring affair.
Here's the bad news: pretty much everything else.
Martin has slogged through 105 attempts averaging just 2.98 yards per carry, the worst mark of any current starting running back. For comparison, even the uninspiring Matt Asiata is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and the Vikings offense is an absolute mess.
The last four games since Martin has come back from his hamstring injury have been even worse, as he is averaging just 2.85 yards per carry.
The poor play has finally forced offensive coordinator Todd Monken to potentially look elsewhere for ground production, telling reporters Wednesday that backup Jacquizz Rodgers could see an "expanded role" Sunday. And considering Rodgers is averaging 4.44 yards per carry on a similar workload (95 carries) there is definitely some teeth to this proclamation.
But unlike traditional committees, the Monken comments point more to a "hot-hand" approach. If Martin is running well, I wouldn't be surprised if the team stays with him. If he isn't? Well ... it's anyone's guess as to how long before the Bucs pull the rip cord and go with 'Quizz. That's a nightmare scenario if you're depending on Martin for solid production.
Despite all the red flags (warning signs, not challenge flags), I don't see any way around not playing Martin.
Most fantasy managers are starving for running back production at this point in the season and Martin is averaging more than 21 carries per game over his last three. And even though he's been terribly inefficient with his touches, from a fantasy perspective, Martin has been unspectacularly solid, scoring 10-12 points in three of his last four games.
The Saints have been a lot better against opposing running backs as of late but overall their defense is still the seventh-most generous on the season allowing 135 scrimmage yards per game to the position group.
If this game is the track meet that many are expecting, even if Martin is splitting carries with Rodgers, you have to expect that the goal line work will still be Martin's domain given that Rodgers is all of 5-foot-6 and 205 pounds.
Bottom line: you're playing Martin unless you have great RB depth. Just go in expecting ... well, anything. He could be a total week killer or have a 100-yard, two-score day. Cross your fingers and good luck.
More news and notes ...
NEWS: Mark Ingram is dealing with toe and knee injuries. He practiced Wednesday but was downgraded and didn't practice Thursday. His status is unclear for Sunday's road tilt versus Tampa Bay. Michael Thomas also did not practice Thursday with a foot injury.
- Fantasy spin: Ingram is looking extremely dicey for Sunday. If he doesn't go, Tim Hightower all of a sudden becomes a sure-fire top-20 running back play with top-10 positional upside. Even though the Tampa run defense has been much improved over their last four games, I'm not sure it matters. After last week's debacle offensively, Drew Brees will be looking to sling it and Hightower could benefit with increased red-zone opportunities. Given that the Saints have mixed in Hightower a lot in the offense, even with a healthy Ingram, it's not the worst idea in the world to play Hightower in the flex just in case Ingram is active but can't finish the game.
- Bottom line: With the Thomas injury and with Josh Hill lost for the season, the New Orleans passing attack becomes much more concentrated for Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and Coby Fleener.
NEWS: Julio Jones (toe) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday but the coaching staff says they're optimistic that Jones will be good to go for Sunday versus the Rams but he's officially questionable. Mohamed Sanu (groin) has been ruled out.
- Fantasy spin: Play Jones as you normally would but with Sanu unlikely to play that opens up a lot of playing time to some grab-bag combination of Taylor Gabriel, Aldrick Robinson and Justin Hardy. For what it's worth Gabriel and Robinson played about the same number of snaps (29, 25 respectively) while Hardy played just 12 offensive snaps. Gabriel offers solid sleeper potential versus a Rams team that is tail spinning and prone to giving up big plays. Robinson is a burner as well and could easily rip a deep pass from the slot.
- Bottom line: If you had concerns regarding Matt Ryan because of the wide receiver injuries, I wouldn't. Play him with confidence.
NEWS: Ryan Mathews (knee) practiced this week and was upgraded to probable as the Eagles play host to Washington. Jordan Matthews (ankle) was a full participant in practice Thursday as well. He'll be good to go.
- Fantasy spin: It's a terrific matchup for both Mathews and Darren Sproles as Washington has given up the third-most fantasy points and 4.03 yards per carry to opposing running backs. There will naturally be concerns regarding usage coming back from injury and the whole committee backfield thing, but given the positive reports out of practice Mathews is a rock-solid flex play at worst.
- Bottom line: The same can't necessarily be said about Jordan Matthews. If Josh Norman roams and is stuck on Matthews (and quite frankly why the hell would he not be?), it's going to be a long day for Matthews who should be considered nothing more than a high-risk WR3.
NEWS: Jordan Reed was back practicing after suffering that grade 3 sprain of his AC joint. Reed sounded very confident that he'll be playing, telling reporters that he has his full range of motion back.
- Fantasy spin: While it's extremely unlikely that Reed does indeed have his full range of motion back, I'm not sure it's relevant. He was hurt two weeks ago, came out after halftime and absolutely crushed it on the field. Now, the Eagles have been brutal on opposing tight ends on the season (allowing just 4.73 fantasy ppg) but over the last four weeks, Jimmy Graham and Tyler Eifert each caught a touchdown against this unit.
- Bottom line: Sometimes you play talent over the paper matchups. This is one of those times. Play Reed with confidence.
Other news and notes:Sammy Watkins (foot) is still on track to play Sunday's home game against the Steelers. Watkins played 68 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 13 but only collected 38 receiving yards.
Robert Woods (knee) also practiced this week and after missing two straight games, he looks like he'll be good to go in at least some capacity. It's the first time Woods and Watkins have played together since Week 2.
Marvin Jones (quad) got in limited practices this week. All signs point to him playing versus the Bears but how many snaps he'll see and how involved he'll be in the passing game remain huge question marks.
Want more fantasy news and notes? Follow James Koh on Twitter: @JamesDKoh
