I need to retain two running backs from Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, Clinton Portis or LenDale White. Suggestions? Also, what sort of numbers do you predict for Steve Smith in 2008? -- R. Tansey, Merrimack, N.H.
Michael Fabiano: Alexander's value as a keeper is close to null and void, so the decision boils down to Parker, Portis and White. While the latter has the advantage in terms of his age, the Tennessee runner was inconsistent at times and isn't as established as Parker and Portis. As a result, I'd retain the two veterans and release Alexander and White back into the pool of available backs. As for Smith, I still see him as an elite fantasy wideout despite the fact that his numbers fell hard after Jake Delhomme went down for the season. With Delhomme slated to return as Carolina's quarterback in 2008, I think Smith will finish with around 90 receptions, 1,200-plus yards and nine-plus touchdowns.
What will the presence of Mike Martz in San Francisco do to the value of Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Darrell Jackson and Vernon Davis? -- J. Tansiano, Phoenix, Ariz.
M.F.: I have never been a fan of Smith, who still hasn't shown that he can be a viable option for fantasy footballers at the NFL level. The addition of Martz as the new offensive coordinator will no doubt mean a more prominent pass attack for the Niners, but that doesn't mean Smith will all of a sudden become a reliable passer. He's still no more than a borderline No. 2 or 3 fantasy quarterback in this writer's book. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he loses the top spot to Shaun Hill.
Jackson could see an increase in stock, so he'll be worth a look in the late rounds. Davis, who is the best receiver on the team, should also see a rise in value and remains a viable No. 1 fantasy tight end.
The player whose value could see the greatest increase is Gore, who will become a receptions machine out of the backfield. While Martz's offenses have abandoned the run at times in the past, this team has far less talent at wideout than the attacks he led in both St. Louis and Detroit. That means Gore, who is the team's most dangerous threat, should still see 250-300 carries. An underrated receiver out of the backfield, Gore has averaged 57 catches over the past two seasons and is almost guaranteed to see 65-75 catches with Martz at the helm. That makes him a more attractive No. 1 fantasy runner across the board.
I have to retain two players from Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Larry Johnson, Braylon Edwards, T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Greg Jennings in a PPR league. Any advice? -- S. Nasby, Indianapolis, Ind.
M.F.: Edwards, Houshmandzadeh and Jennings all have added value in this sort of format, but I still have to side with the duo of Addai and Johnson as the two top keepers. With an increase in backfield committees throughout the NFL, true featured runners will be almost impossible to find in all re-drafts. As a result, this duo is a tremendous foundation to build around. Furthermore, I would bet that you'll be able to add at least one (if not two based on draft position) of Edwards, Houshmandzadeh and Jennings.
I can keep up to three players for 2008, but I lose the round they were selected in. Who should I retain from Frank Gore (Round 6), Maurice Jones-Drew (Round 8), Brandon Marshall (Round 10) and DeAngelo Williams (Round 11)? -- K. Raff, Mount Laurel, N.J.
M.F.: Gore, Jones-Drew and Marshall are all terrific values based on the rounds lost, so I'd retain that trio and release Williams back into the free-agent pool. You'll have six of the first seven rounds to focus on a quarterback, backfield depth, additional wideouts to pair with Marshall and a superstar tight end.
I'm in a league where quarterbacks are king, and I need to protect three players from Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Grant, LaDainian Tomlinson and Wes Welker. I'm stuck between Grant and Welker. Who should I keep? -- R. Todd, Murfreesboro, Tenn.
M.F.: I think you're correct to side with Roethlisberger in a quarterback-favorable format, and Tomlinson is an obvious choice. I think the third and final choice has to boil down to two issues. First, does the league reward points for receptions, which would make Welker more attractive? Second, will most of the other owners retain two runners and diminish the position's depth in the re-draft? Overall I would side with Grant, however, because I'm not sure Welker can duplicate the 112 receptions, 1,175 yards and eight scores he recorded in 2007. In fact, I think he's destined to see a decrease in statistical success across the board. That same holds true for the duo of Tom Brady and Randy Moss.
I have Peyton Manning and Tony Romo at the quarterback position, and it looks like I can deal Manning for one of Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens or Randy Moss. Should I make one of these moves and retain Romo for 2008? -- D. Twomey, Eden Prairie, Minn.
M.F.: I'd deal Manning for Moss, but be aware that the New England wide receiver is a free agent in 2008. In the event that he leaves (though I can't think of why in the world he would leave pro football nirvana), then the deal is a lot more of a risk. Before I did make a trade, however, I would make sure it was known that both Manning and Romo are on the trade block in an effort to field the most offers possible. Who knows, another owner might decide to part with a top-notch running back for one of those elite quarterbacks.
I have been offered Brian Westbrook for Marion Barber and Deion Branch in a keeper league. It seems like a no-brainer since I had no plans to retain Branch, but I'm worried about Westbrook's knee issues and the fact that Barber is a younger running back. What are your thoughts? -- T. Toker, Canada
M.F.: Barber is an All-Pro back and finished as one of the top runners in fantasy football this season, but Westbrook is on a different level. He is as good a runner as he is a receiver out of the backfield, and despite his knee issues he has still started no fewer than 14 games from 2006-2007. I'd pull the trigger on this one right now.
What is all this talk about Tom Brady as the No. 1 overall selection in 2008? Brady was a monster in what was the season of the quarterback, but he'll never duplicate those numbers. If I get the first pick, I'd take LaDainian Tomlinson. Can you explain to me how this cloud of madness has descended on you and your cohorts? -- T. Burrows, England
M.F.: I had Brady listed as the No. 1 overall pick in 2008 drafts when I discussed next season on Point After, but you're 100 percent correct that he has no chance to duplicate this season's immense totals. But in an NFL that has become more dependant on the pass and less willing to showcase one running back, I still think Brady warrants the top spot even if he throws for 4,200 yards and scores 35 total touchdowns. With that said, I also wouldn't blame fantasy footballers that would rather draft Tomlinson, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai or Steven Jackson with one of the first five overall selection based on that lack of true featured backs around the league.
What kind of value will Edgerrin James have next season? Is he still worth a second-round pick in seasonal drafts? Would you keep him or Selvin Young? -- G. Everson, Buffalo, N.Y.
M.F.: James did have a nice 2007 season with 1,222 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, but he's in danger of losing his featured role in Arizona. In fact, reports out of the desert report the Cardinals could add a power runner in the offseason to pair with James in a backfield committee. What's more, James turns the dreaded 3-0 before the start of next season, so he'll be a more viable bust candidate. You do have time to make a final decision, but at this point I'd have to side with Young over James in keeper formats.
What do you think will happen in the Oakland backfield this offseason? I have Michael Bush in a dynasty league, but the emergence of Justin Fargas has me worried that a committee is imminent. Thanks! -- P. Conor, Seattle, Wash.
M.F.: That's a good question. I'd bet that the Raiders will re-sign Fargas, who is slated to be a free agent, and make him the favorite to start in 2008. He would no doubt compete with Bush, who should be back to 100 percent health and set to make his presence felt at the pro level. Veteran Dominic Rhodes, who finished this season on fire, could also find himself in the mix. The same can't be said for LaMont Jordan, who will no doubt be released in the offseason.
