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Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos: I certainly don't believe Manning forgot how to play football after he missed one season. But with so many great quarterbacks available (especially in 10-team leagues) there is no need to reach for a 36-year-old quarterback who is coming off four neck surgeries. Somebody is going to reach for Manning in the second or third round, don't let it be you. If he's there in the fifth or sixth round, you might be on to something.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears: There are a number of factors working against Forte, not including his durability issues. For starters, the Bears signed Michael Bush in the offseason. That alone would be enough to hurt a running back's value. But there is a real risk Forte is going to miss offseason workouts and training camp because of a contract dispute. And if it doesn't get resolved soon, the Bears will simply move on with Bush.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Turner had a deceptively good 2011 season, thanks to a 172-yard performance against the Buccaneers in Week 17 (and 81 of those yards came on one run). Turner has rushed the ball 635 times over the last two years, and he doesn't have much value as a receiver, either. The Falcons are likely to turn the page on Turner this year, and you should too.
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: The lack of true No. 1 running backs in fantasy is the only explanation I can see for people trying to wedge McFadden into the top of draft boards. Look, the guy is great when he plays. There is no denying that. But he's topped 113 rushing attempts only once in his four years in the league. He's too much of a risk.
Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: Bush had 216 rushing attempts in 2011. He had 212 from 2008-10. And now we're just going to welcome him into the RB1 category? Not so fast. Bush is a great option for the right price, but you just can't risk taking him too high. The good news is the Dolphins are going to need him to be a big part of the offense, no matter who the starting quarterback is. The bad news is they're banking on Bush being healthy for an entire season. I'll believe that when I see it.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: This spot is dying for an Alvin Harper comparison right here, but we won't do that. But let's take a look at Jackson's numbers over the last three years. He's caught 21 touchdown passes in three years (and yes, he missed some time as a holdout in 2010). Compare that to Robert Meachem who had 20 over the same timeframe as a part-time player. But somehow Jackson is considered a No. 1 receiver and Meachem is not. But look for Jackson to slip with a new quarterback and a run-heavy offense in Tampa Bay.
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Gore is going to have a decrease in chances this year with Kendall Hunter getting a more prominent role, plus you have the additions of Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James. Gore carried the ball 20 times or more in five games last year, but don't look for him to reach that mark again. Gore will likely be somewhere between 12-17 carries a game, and he can no longer be counted on as a No. 1 running back.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers: The Buccaneers drafted Doug Martin to be a franchise running back. The ultimate act of revenge for Boise State in response to Blount landing a sucker-punch on Byron Hout a few years back. Martin is going to become a three-down back, and Blount will be relegated to goal-line work.
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: The Texans will open the 2012 season as favorites in the AFC South and possibly the entire AFC, but it will be because of the team's running game and strong defense. As a result, Schaub's fantasy value continues to take a hit. Playing in shorter games and bleeding the clock while nursing leads will again mean less opportunities for Schaub to shine as a passer. This also dings Andre Johnson a bit, too.