"Running backs are the lifeblood of fantasy football."
I can't count the number of times I've used that phrase in my career as a fantasy analyst. But I have to admit, the lack of production from the position after three weeks has become a cause for concern. In NFL.com's standard scoring format, there is one running back in the top 10 based on points, and it's not LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson.
It's Brian Westbrook.
Furthermore, a mere six backs (Westbrook, Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Adrian Peterson) are in the top 30 after three weeks. Where are L.T., Action Jackson and L.J.? Well, Tomlinson is 41st and has the same number of points as Derrick Ward. Jackson is 90th and has the same number of points as Kurt Warner (who has seen less than four quarters of action this season), and Johnson is 104th and tied with the likes of Kyle Boller, DeShawn Wynn and Heath Miller, to name a few.
On the other side of the spectrum, quarterbacks and wide receivers have dominated the stat sheets. In fact, 24 of the top 30 points producers come from one of these two positions in standard formats. The top four players are all quarterbacks -- Tom BradyTony Romo, Carson Palmer, Jake Delhomme -- while Randy Moss is fifth overall.
So what's the reason for this sudden turn in the fortunes of the Big Three? Well, the reasons are quite different for each back.
Tomlinson has had to face three solid defenses in Chicago, New England and Green Bay, so it's hard to place the blame completely on his shoulders. He does have an awful 2.3 yards-per-carry average, but at least Tomlinson continues to see the football and remains the unquestioned focal point of the San Diego offense. What's more, contests against lesser defenses like Kansas City (2), Oakland (2), Houston, Tennessee and Detroit should reverse his fortunes. He'll also face a Denver defense twice that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run after three weeks.
With these contests down the road in his favor, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Tomlinson still finishes with solid numbers across the board.
Jackson did rush for 115 yards in a loss to Tampa Bay, but he suffered a partial tear of his left groin in the fourth quarter and will miss at least one week and possibly two to three weeks. Fantasy owners should look to add rookie Brian Leonard, who showed flashes of potential in the preseason and will start in his absence.
While he was 100 percent, Jackson's lack of production was due in large part to the team's patchwork offensive line, which has lost T Todd Steussie, T Orlando Pace and G Mark Setterstrom for the season. The team has also been without C Richie Incognito, who has been out with an injured ankle and is expected to miss at least one more week. When a team's line collapses, chances are the numbers of its top offensive skill position players will do the same. Another reason for Jackson's decreased numbers had been his lack of touches as a receiver out of the backfield. He led all backs with 90 catches last season, but he was on pace for just 43 before he sustained the groin ailment.
The schedule will be much kinder to Jackson when he returns to action, as he won't face a defense ranked higher than 16th against the run from Week 7 to Week 14. That list includes contests against Cleveland (31st), New Orleans (21st), San Francisco (25th), Atlanta (25th) and Cincinnati (27th). While the line needs to overcome its injuries, the future should be brighter for Jackson even if he misses a few weeks.
The same can't be said for Johnson.
Part of the reason for Johnson's problems comes from a schedule that has been relentless. He has faced two of the top five run defenses (Minnesota, Houston) after two weeks, and his third opponent was no slouch -- Chicago. This week he'll face San Diego's ninth-ranked run defense before a contest against Jacksonville, which held Travis Henry to 35 rushing yards in Week 3. The schedule eases a bit afterwards with games against Cincinnati, Oakland (2), Denver (2), Detroit and the New York Jets, none of which are ranked higher than 19th against the run.
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One disadvantage that Johnson has when compared to Tomlinson and Jackson is the lack of an effective quarterback that keeps defenses honest. Damon Huard isn't on the same level as Philip Rivers and Marc Bulger, and the prospect of Brodie Croyle under center later in the season will mean continued stacked fronts on the line of scrimmage. Owners should also remember that L.J. endured an NFL-record 416 carries in 2006, and that sort of workload has been detrimental to previous backs. In 1998, Jamal Anderson carried the rock 410 times. He tore up his knee in 1999 and was never the same back again. Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson had 404 carries in 1986, but he rushed for 533 fewer yards and six fewer touchdowns in 1987. Eddie George recorded 403 carries in 2000, and he had 570 fewer yards and nine fewer touchdowns in 2001.
While it's too late to trade Johnson one for one, owners might want to put him on the block and include him in a package deal. If you're forced to retain him, L.J. shouldn't be considered a must-start back unless you have no backfield depth or until he turns it around and produces like the stud runner he was the previous two seasons.
Aside from the Big Three, the other elite backs haven't been all bad. Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, Westbrook and Willie Parker are all on pace for well over 1,000 rushing yards. LaMont Jordan, Edgerrin James and Clinton Portis have exceeded their statistical expectations, while Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies. Still, it's notable that an owner who drafted L.J. and Maurice Jones-Drew in the first two rounds would have been better off with Peyton Manning and Steve Smith, at least after three weeks.
Does all of this mean that fantasy strategies will be altered in future drafts? I doubt it, simply because true featured backs will remain valuable assets. With committees on the rise, backs that see most of the carries in addition to goal-line work will remain prominent in the first round. Also remember that solid wide receivers like Smith, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison will still be on the board in the second and third rounds, so there's still no reason to rush the position. The same holds true for productive quarterbacks, some of which will be on the board into the middle rounds. That was proven this season, as the likes of Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Brett Favre and Eli Manning were all of the board after the fourth or fifth round.
Where I think a change will occur is in the selection of unproven backs or runners in committees in the second and third round. Jones-Drew was an obvious bust candidate with Fred Taylor and Greg Jones in the mix, but he still went in the second round in countless drafts. DeAngelo Williams was a nice sleeper, but he was still in a committee with DeShaun Foster and was not worth a second- to fourth-round choice. Neither Thomas Jones nor Ahman Green was worth a second rounder based on their current numbers, but the first-round run at the position almost demanded that both fall into that area.
Owners who have been burned by players like Jones, Jones-Drew and Green will instead look to draft the best player available in the second round (after a back has been chosen in Round 1), and wait to take a second runner until the third or fourth round. That sort of scenario will mean more positional diversity in the second or third rounds, rather than a slew of backs and scattered quarterbacks and wideouts.
There are still nine more weeks in most fantasy regular seasons, so some of these trends could be altered down the road. But if this current trend prevails and backs falter while quarterbacks and wide receivers thrive, you will see a serious change in the landscape of draft strategies away from runners and to a best-player-available approach.
Waiver wire focus
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City: The rookie out of Louisiana State had five catches for 71 yards and scored his second touchdown in a 13-10 win over Minnesota. He won't be consistent, but Bowe should remain a starter the rest of the season on a Chiefs offense that needs a spark in the pass attack.
Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia: Curtis had a monster performance against Detroit with 11 catches for 221 yards and three touchdowns. The speedster seems to have established himself as the top wideout in the Eagles pass attack, and he's still available in close to 40 percent of NFL.com leagues.
Ron Dayne, RB, Houston: Green missed most of last week's game against Indianapolis with an injured knee, and his status for Week 4 is uncertain. Dayne would be in line to start if Green is out, but he missed the Colts contest with an injured chest. If neither back is active, Samkon Gado would be the player to target.
Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay: Jennings still isn't 100 percent back from an injured hamstring, but he sure looked fine on a 57-yard catch and run touchdown from Brett Favre. If he can avoid setbacks, the second-year wideout from Western Michigan has the skills to be a nice asset for fantasy owners.
Jeff King, TE, Carolina: Offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson wanted to get the tight end more involved this season, and he's done that with King. He caught four passes for 56 yards and scored a touchdown in Week 3, and King is on pace for 52 receptions at his current rate of production.
Houston defense: Believe it or not, but the Texans are ranked fourth among defenses in standard formats behind only Minnesota, Pittsburgh and New England. This week they'll face Joey Harrington and an inconsistent Atlanta offense, so Houston is a viable option across the board.
Brian Leonard, RB, St. Louis: With Steven Jackson out for at least one week due to an injured groin, Leonard will be the most added player in fantasy football in Week 4. He showed flashes of potential in the preseason, and chances are he'll see around 20 touches per contest while Jackson is out of action.
Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore: Mason was a serious disappointment last season, but he posted eight catches and one touchdown in Week 3 and is on pace for over 100 receptions at his current rate. He has re-emerged as the top wideout for the Ravens, and he's still available in close to 40 percent of NFL.com leagues.
Jeff Reed, K, Pittsburgh: Reed is the top kicker in fantasy football after three weeks, but for some reason he is still available in over 30 percent of NFL.com leagues. Kickers can be valuable assets, so fantasy owners who need an upgrade at the position should look to add the Steelers booter.
Roddy White, WR, Atlanta: White is available in most seasonal formats, but he won't be after his 127-yard, one-touchdown performance against Carolina. With no clear-cut top wideout on the roster, White could see a much more prominent role in the offense if he continues to perform well.
Mailbag
LaMont Jordan has been a stud this season, but what is his long-term outlook when Dominic Rhodes returns? Should I trade Jordan now? -- J. Pringle, Canada
M.F.: Jordan has done more than enough to retain the top spot on the depth chart, but head coach Lane Kiffin won't want to wear him down. As a result, he could lose some work to Rhodes and experience a slight decrease in value. I would put Jordan on the trade block and field offers, but don't take less than market value for a back that ranks in the top three at his position.
Who should I start in Week 4: Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart? Also, should I release Tatum Bell and add Kevin Jones? -- A. Bolenbaugh, Glenview, Ill.
M.F.: I have little faith in Leinart after he was pulled in Week 3, and I have less faith in him against Pittsburgh. Cutler doesn't have a fantastic matchup on the road against Indianapolis, but I'd still start him ahead of Leinart. I would add Jones, but I wouldn't drop Bell right now. Instead, look to drop a backup kicker or defense or a wide receiver or tight end who has become "dead wood" on your roster.
