Every week, Scott Engel of RotoExperts.com focuses on key recent trends and numbers, and tells you how they will affect your fantasy outlook for the upcoming week.
FEELING THE HEAT:
Players who have positive numbers following them into Week 4.
Steve Smith, WR, Carolina
Stat: In three meetings with the Bears, Smith has 30 catches for 484 yards, an average of 161.3 yards per game. He also has two TDs in those matchups.
Analysis: Smith was quieted last week after exploding in the first two games. Chicago's defensive line can get pressure up front, but the Carolina offensive line has done a fine job of pass blocking so far and will be ready to protect Cam Newton. Even if Smith doesn't enjoy another huge day, his QB will get him the ball and he is a good bet for another 100-yard outing.
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Tennessee
Stat: Hasselbeck is shooting for his third consecutive game with more than 300 passing yards.
Analysis: Hasselbeck has carried some bad luck from Seattle with him to Tennessee. The past few years with the Seahawks, it seemed he was often dealing with key receiver injuries that cut into his production. Now he is without Kenny Britt after just three weeks with the Titans. Hasselbeck had never played with an elite WR talent like Britt at any point in his career. Without Britt, Hasselbeck will certainly see a dip in production, especially with the running game not offering the optimum level of support. Hasselbeck's best days in Tennessee may already be over. Do not start him against Cleveland.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco
Stat: In his last meeting with the Eagles, Crabtree had nine receptions for 105 yards.
Analysis: Crabtree is owned in 51.1 percent of NFL.com leagues, a low number for a player of his potential. But he has been slowed by a foot injury and the QB play in San Francisco leaves a lot to be desired. Crabtree had a TD reception wiped out last week on a questionable call that stated he went out of bounds. For all his talent, Crabtree has not been worth a roster spot in many leagues so far this year. Yet he is capable of breaking out at any time and should at least be stashed for bye week help even if you do not use him this week.
John Abraham, DE, Atlanta
Stat: Abraham has three sacks and a forced fumble in two games vs. the Seahawks.
Analysis: The Seahawks won their home opener last week, but Tarvaris Jackson continued to look very shaky. He does not make good reads or decisions and it is befuddling why Pete Carroll continues to stick with his inept QB. Abraham is going to terrorize a Seattle offensive line that is still a work in progress. The Falcons are the top Week 4 pick for those who like to stream defenses based on matchups.
Week 4 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
Believe it or not,
Eli Manning is a must-start fantasy quarterback for his Week 4 matchup against the
Arizona Cardinals.
**Michael Fabiano** breaks down the rest of the guys to start and avoid this week.
**More ...**
Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay
Stat: Nelson has a TD reception in three of his last four games.
Analysis: Nelson has truly arrived as a strong WR start. While he may not see the field as frequently as some other WRs of similar fantasy value, Nelson gets a lot of looks from Aaron Rodgers every time he is in there. Denver has little hope of containing the Packers offense this week, and you should lock Nelson into your lineup again. He is a consistent threat for a team that simply has too many weapons.
Deion Branch, WR, New England
Stat: Branch has two TDs in three career games against Oakland.
Analysis: Somehow, Branch was actually shut out during another Patriots offensive outburst at Buffalo last week. It would be shocking to see him shut down again, as he simply has a great on-field relationship with Tom Brady and the New England QB certainly distributes the ball well. Even if he does not score this week, you can expect a healthy statistical rebound for Branch at Oakland.
Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets
Stat: Holmes has seven TDs against the Ravens, the most vs. any opponent.
Analysis: Holmes is shooting for his seventh consecutive game against Baltimore with a TD catch. The former Steeler looked forward to facing the Ravens during his Pittsburgh tenure and is a good bet to score again this week. With the lack of a quality running game in New York, Mark Sanchez will continue to throw often, and that means TD chances for Holmes against a Ravens pass defense that can be exploited. Even if the Jets do not play up to expectations overall this week, Holmes will still get his numbers.
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis
Stat: In his last two games vs. the NFC, Addai averages 110 rush yards per game.
Analysis: Addai rushed for 86 yards against the Steelers last week, generating some optimism about the Colts running game. Addai is in line for an important role at Tampa Bay as Indianapolis must generate some offensive balance to stay in the game against the Buccaneers. Certainly, though, the Buccaneers defense will be ready to stop the run and make the Colts throw, so do not expect another quality performance from Addai this week.
SEARCHING FOR SPARKS:
These players will look to turn some negative outlooks around in Week 4.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh
Stat: Mendenhall is averaging 49.3 rush yards per game so far in 2011 with just one TD run.
Analysis: The Steelers have looked sluggish on offense, and the line has not blocked well. The unit is banged up heading into a matchup with the Texans. You cannot bench Mendenhall, as he can burst out of this statistical slump at any time, even though the outlook is not good for yardage this week. Keep in mind that Ben Roethlisberger is capable of putting the team in position for a short yardage score at any time, and keep the faith in Mendenhall for another week.
Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota
Stat: Harvin is averaging 43.3 receiving yards per game and has not scored this year as a wide receiver.
Analysis: It's going to be a long, disappointing year for Harvin and his fantasy owners, and even a Week 4 matchup with the Chiefs cannot generate any significant optimism. Harvin lacks any quality complements in the passing game. Opposing pass defenses can simply concentrate on Harvin and dare the Vikings to beat them with guys like Michael Jenkins. Harvin is no strong start against any opponent, not even the sagging Chiefs.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati
Stat: Green was held to 29 yards on four catches in Week 3.
Analysis: Green was held in check by the 49ers after a breakout game against the Broncos in Week 2. Green simply has too much talent to be stifled by the Bills this week. Expect him to score for the third time this year, and roll with the great-looking rookie as a very good WR3 option for Week 4.
Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville
Stat: Lewis has four catches for 43 yards in two games so far this season.
Analysis: Lewis had two catches for 15 yards against the Panthers after sitting out in Week 2. Some would naturally assume Lewis' production to fall off like it has early considering the Jacksonville QB situation. Keep in mind, though, that young passers often turn to their TEs as "security blankets." Blaine Gabbert should start to connect with Lewis more frequently very soon. Keep Lewis rostered even if you simply bench him and monitor his situation this week.
Jacoby Ford, WR, Oakland
Stat: Ford has played in one game this year and has three receptions for 22 yards.
Analysis: Ford was hailed as a fine value selection in drafts this year, but he has been out with a hamstring injury. Ford is owned in 59.5 percent of NFL.com leagues, and may be ready to return this week. If he has no setbacks, Ford could show some signs of regaining the promising form he displayed last season as the Raiders take on the Patriots this week. The emergence of Denarius Moore puts Ford in a situation where defenses must account for another playmaker at WR, which boosts Ford's potential appeal. Add Ford if you can and scout his situation for potential starting use in the weeks ahead.
Willis McGahee, RB, Denver
Stat: McGahee rushed for 52 yards on 22 carries at Tennessee last week, averaging 2.4 yards per rush.
Analysis: McGahee did register a TD reception, but was held in check most of the day. It gets even tougher this week against the Packers, who clearly have the best run defense in the NFL right now. McGahee has little hope of posting better numbers than he did last week. He is a matchup play as a RB3/flex and should be benched this week.
Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego
Stat: Tolbert has 64 rushing yards this year, with 29 in his last two games.
Analysis: Tolbert caught three passes for 24 yards last week, and his fantasy value is falling fast as Ryan Mathews continues to rise. Tolbert, though, has been slowed by a knee injury recently, and the Chargers likely want to keep both of their top RBs involved in the flow of the offense. Let's not forget Tolbert caught 17 passes for 131 yards in the first two games of 2011. Do not give up on Tolbert yet. He still has a lot of appeal as a pass-catcher and goal-line threat. Start him as a flex as he faces Miami this week.
Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay
Stat: Williams has 10 catches for 89 yards in his first three games of 2011.
Analysis: Williams drew a lot of negative fantasy attention with one catch for minus-four yards in Week 2, and his 43-yard outing last week conjured up more moaning and groaning. He did have a TD catch nullified by a penalty in Week 2, and Williams had five receptions last week. The Buccaneers know they have to get the ball to Williams, who is their top playmaking threat. Look for Josh Freeman to feed him the ball against Indianapolis, and Williams will get back on track in Week 4.
For more advanced insights and breakdowns, plus live gameday chats, check out the RotoExperts.com Xclusive Edge package, which includes VIP access to all content from Scott Engel, a 15-year veteran Fantasy analyst with sites such as CBS SportsLine and ESPN.com, and an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame.
