What can we expect from Braylon Edwards in 2009? -- J. Adamiec, Barrington, Ill.
Michael Fabiano: I don't think Edwards is as bad as his final totals from last season, but I don't think he'll ever produce the 16 touchdowns he scored in 2007 again. In my research, most of the NFL's greatest wideouts didn't experience such a drastic decrease in production after a breakout season (outside of injuries). Terrell Owens was one of the receivers who did see his numbers fall after he broke out with the 49ers in 1998, as he finished the next season with just 754 yards and four touchdowns. But that team still had Jerry Rice, a pass-catching running back in Charlie Garner and was forced to start then rookie Jeff Garcia when Steve Young was lost for the season in Week 3.
What worries me about Edwards is that he dropped a ton of passes last season. In fact, he finished with 55 receptions despite being targeted 138 times. The lone wideout to be targeted at least than many times and not finish with 70-plus receptions was, ironically, Owens, who had 69 for the season. Overall, I think Edwards is a perfect example of the high-risk, high-reward draft choice. I'd project him as a No. 3 fantasy wideout who has the potential to produce around 1,000 yards with five to seven touchdowns.
I saw your blog post on Terrell Owens last week. How far would the fantasy value of Tony Romo fall and Roy E. Williams rise if T.O. isn't in Dallas next season? -- G. Shelton, Bloomington, Minn.
M.F.: As I mentioned in that particular blog, both Garcia and Donovan McNabb both saw their numbers decrease once Owens left their respective teams. While Romo does have much more talent around him than either Garcia or McNabb had in their pass attacks, I still think Romo would lose a little of his luster without Owens. Of course, Williams would see his stock soar in a T.O.-less Dallas offense. Barring injuries, a season with around 1,200 yards and eight to 10 touchdowns would be well within reach. Numbers like that would make Williams a low-end No. 1 fantasy wideout across the board.
Who is the better keeper: Frank Gore or Maurice Jones-Drew? -- S. Scott, Scottsdale, Ariz.
M.F.: I think if the Jaguars release Fred Taylor and don't draft or add another running back who will steal carries from him, Jones-Drew is the better option. At 23, he doesn't have one season with 200-plus carries on his resume but is still the owner of 38 total touchdowns. He's also been in a backfield committee with Taylor, so Jones-Drew has far less wear and tear on his body. On the other hand, Gore has endured the load of a featured back for three consecutive seasons and still has 15 fewer touchdowns than Jones-Drew in that time. I see "Pocket Hercules" as a potential top-five pick in seasonal drafts and a solid keeper in all formats.
What do you think about Chad Johnson for next season? Is he on the downside of his career or did he just fall off without Carson Palmer? -- K. Franklin, Aberdeen, Wash.
M.F.: Johnson, 31, recorded six consecutive seasons with better than 1,100 yards and averaged close to nine touchdowns from 2003-2007. With that said, I find it hard to believe that Johnson somehow lost his skills all of the sudden. Reports indicate he will participate in offseason programs as well, so his rapport with Palmer shouldn't be an issue. There are some uncertainties at this point, like the status of impending free agent T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but I think Johnson could be a brilliant draft value.
JaMarcus Russell finished last season very strong on a team that had no reliable receivers outside of Zach Miller. Do you consider him a sleeper in 2009? -- S. Abernathy, Passaic, N.J.
M.F.: Russell did put up good numbers in the final three weeks of the season, throwing for 626 yards and six touchdowns. However, I don't know that the Raiders have enough talent in the passing game to make him a viable fantasy starter. Of course, if the Cowboys do release Owens and he lands in Raider Nation (a hypothetical scenario), then Russell would all of the sudden be a more attractive option in fantasy drafts. As it stands, I see him as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback and worth a late-round selection.
I have Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson in a keeper league, but I can only keep one player per position. I had planned to retain Fitzgerald, but should I side with Johnson if Kurt Warner retires? -- J. Balfour, Murfreesboro, Tenn.
M.F.: Well, it looks like it's either the Cardinals or retirement for Warner in 2009. The Arizona Republic reports the veteran quarterback wants to remain with the team if he's going to continue his career, which is good news for the value of Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. But if Warner does decide to hang 'em up and retire, then I would retain Johnson instead. He's already proven that he can produce solid fantasy numbers regardless of the level of quarterback under center in Detroit.
I'm in a 10-team keeper league and need to retain either Jay Cutler or Matt Ryan. Advice? Also, would you trade Willie Parker for Ronnie Brown? Who has more value? Thanks! -- V. Shafer, Independence, Mo.
M.F.: As much as I like Ryan as a long-term keeper, I think you have to retain Cutler. After all, he is coming off a season with 4,526 yards and 27 total touchdowns. He's also a young gunslinger at the age of 25, and the addition of coach Josh McDaniels should be a positive in his development into an elite NFL quarterback. As for the trade, I would rather have Brown than Parker moving forward. Brown now has one full season under his belt after a reconstructive knee procedure, and I think he'll receive more of the workload for the Dolphins in 2009 and beyond. Brown has also averaged just 221 carries in his three full NFL seasons, so he doesn't have the same wear and tear as Fast Willie.
I'm in a 12-team keeper league and need to retain three players, but I lose the round the player was drafted in the previous season. My options are Joseph Addai (Round 1), Calvin Johnson (Round 4), Matt Forte (Round 6), Aaron Rodgers (Round 11) and Steve Slaton (Round 15). Thanks! -- T. Stepanek, Dayton, Ohio
M.F.: Addai isn't worth the first-round price tag, and you have far better options at the position in Forte and Slaton. I'd also retain Johnson ahead of Rodgers. The quarterback is a tremendous value for an 11th rounder, but Megatron is far too talented to throw back into the pool of available players. He's also worth a second-round pick, so Johnson for a fourth rounder is an attractive keeper. With a pick in each of the first three rounds, I would target a quarterback and another wideout to pair with Johnson.
I'm in a keeper league and need to retain four players from Anquan Boldin, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer, Adrian Peterson and Steve Slaton. I guess I'm most confused about the quarterbacks. Do I keep Cassel or Palmer? -- M. Bednar, Canada
M.F.: Right now I'd say you have to retain Palmer ahead of Cassel, and I'm not sure there's a scenario that would make me alter that train of thought. Sure, Cassel did have a nice season in 2008, but he struggled to produce good numbers against more formidable opponents. Furthermore, Cassel is still a backup in New England behind Tom Brady. Even if he's traded to another team and assumes the top spot on the depth chart, he likely won't have the same level of talent around him. He also won't have either Josh McDaniels or Bill Belichick. Palmer, who has two 4,000-yard seasons on his NFL resume, is on pace to be 100 percent back from an injured elbow for the start of 2009.
Give me your take on Marshawn Lynch for next season. I have to decide on keeping him or Ryan Grant. Thanks! -- D. Stepnowski, Davie, Fla.
M.F.: I've been getting a lot of emails about Lynch, and I'm not sure where all the doubt comes from about his skills and abilities. He's coming off a season that saw him record 47 receptions, close to 1,400 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns in 15 games. Sure, he lost carries to Fred Jackson, but that has become the nature of the NFL backfield. Most teams now have two runners in prominent roles, and those situations aren't going away soon (if at all). I see Lynch as a borderline No. 1 or 2 fantasy back who's worth a late first-round or a second-round selection in seasonal drafts, and I would certainly retain him ahead of Grant.
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