Scott Engel of RotoExperts.com highlights some interesting numbers and key players as you prepare for the critical Week 13 of the fantasy football season. We crunch the numbers as you peer ahead to the fantasy playoffs.
High times: These players have some positive statistics accompanying them into the all-important Week 13 schedule. Are the numbers a true reflection of what's ahead?
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Stat: Johnson has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his past three games.
Analysis: Johnson recorded his third career game of 190-plus rushing yards last week. This week, he faces Buffalo's 21st-ranked run defense and he is a top start. Johnson has disappointed overall this year, but he has been playing better recently and is a terrific choice when the matchup is right, as is the case this week. The Bills allow 123.8 rushing yards per game.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City
Stat: Bowe had seven receptions in each of the past two games.
Analysis: Quarterback problems don't always mean terrible numbers for a top wide receiver on an NFL team. Tyler Palko has to throw to someone when he makes completions, and Bowe does not lose points for interceptions. If Kyle Orton plays this week, he will also have to go to his most dependable receiver, and that is Bowe. All throughout his career, Bowe has often posted quality totals even when defenses converge on him. Continue to start him as a very good PPR WR2.
Reggie Bush, RB, Miami
Stat: Bush leads the NFL with four rushing TDs in the month of November.
Analysis: Bush is running with urgency and has an evident knack for the end zone, an intangible skill that some RBs possess and others simply do not. Oakland's defense ranks 27th against the run, and has allowed 10 rushing TDs. You should go with Bush as a RB2 or flex this week.
Eric Decker, WR, Denver
Stat: Decker has TD catches in four of his past five games.
Analysis: Decker has become a consistent scoring target for Denver, even though defenses are well aware Tim Tebow cannot seem to complete key passes to anyone else. Decker is also a Minnesota native and attended the University of Minnesota. He gets to play in front of the home folks against the Vikings, who have allowed an NFL-high 22 TD passes. Decker is a very strong start for Week 13.
Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis
Stat: Wayne had 18 catches for 233 yards and three TDs in his last two games vs. New England.
Analysis: Wayne also had a season-best 122 receiving yards last week, and the Patriots have the worst pass defense in the league. Yet Wayne is not in an ideal position to take advantage of the matchup. He has been unreliable all year long, and with Dan Orlovsky at QB now, his outlook seems quite bleak. Do not start Wayne in a critical fantasy week. Whereas Dwayne Bowe has been able to produce well with QB issues, Wayne has not. Every situation is different.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati
Stat: Green posted his third 100-yard game of his rookie season last week.
Analysis: Green bested top cover cornerback Joe Haden last week, and caught a 36-yard TD pass against the Steelers in Week 10 before leaving the game with a knee injury. Green has become a must-start fantasy player regardless of matchup, and the Steelers will be tested by his superb skill set this week.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay
Stat: Blount had 19 carries for 91 yards and a TD in his only meeting with the Panthers.
Analysis: Blount faces Carolina's run defense, which is ranked 28th in the league and has allowed a league-high 15 rushing scores. The Panthers have looked downright awful against the run recently and Blount is running smoothly and with great vision. He simply has to be in your lineup this week.
Fred Davis, TE, Washington
Stat: Davis has five TDs in his past seven December games.
Analysis: Davis becomes more of a threat now that Santana Moss has returned and allows the Redskins to challenge defenses more with their passing game. Davis will be a regular scoring threat for the rest of the fantasy season. When Moss is in the game, he commands significant defensive attention and opens up opportunities for other Washington pass-catchers.
Cool runnings: These players are looking to put some disappointing past trends behind them heading into Week 13. Their fantasy owners need them to turn things around now, with no more room for patience or waiting.
Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
Stat: Greene has not rushed for a TD in his past six games.
Analysis: Greene has two rushing scores this year and is averaging 59.2 rushing yards per game. Some NFL experts are speculating that he is looking like he may be playing hurt, too. You should consider another option if you are facing the prospect of missing the fantasy playoffs if you lose this week.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston
Stat: Johnson has not scored in his past three games.
Analysis: Johnson should be in better form this week in his second game back from a six-game layoff, but his QB situation is very troubling. If you have other top options at WR, benching Johnson is not crazy, it actually may prove to be a safe move.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh
Stat: Mendenhall has one 100-yard game in 2011.
Analysis: Mendenhall has not rushed for more than 70 yards in any of his past five games. He faces the fifth-ranked Cincinnati run defense this week, so the yardage numbers could be disappointing again. But Mendenhall is always a threat to score in any matchup, so he is a decent choice if you do not have a RB2 with more upside this week.
Steve Smith, WR, Carolina
Stat: Smith has not reached the 70-yard receiving mark in any of his past three games.
Analysis: Smith has slowed statistically after registering five 100-yard outings in his first eight games of 2011. You cannot keep a superstar down for too long, and Tampa Bay ranks 28th against the pass. Smith should be locked into your Week 13 lineup.
Week 13 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
Needing a Week 13 win to make the fantasy playoffs?
**Michael Fabiano** writes that
**LeGarrette Blount** could be just the guy to carry your squad into the postseason.
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Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland
Stat: Hillis' last 100-yard rushing game came on Dec. 12 of 2010.
Analysis: Hillis returned to action last week and ran hard. He is looking mostly healthy again, but faces the best run defense in the AFC this week when he takes on the Ravens. Hillis is only one game removed from a five-week absence and it's too risky to use him because of the matchup.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
Stat: Nicks has one TD catch and no 100-yard outings in his past five games.
Analysis: Nicks is also battling the effects of a concussion and a rib injury. Victor Cruz has surpassed him as the team's most productive pass-catcher. Yet the Giants are facing a must-win scenario and will likely ride high emotion into their matchup with the Packers. You have to trust Nicks to make some needed plays in Week 13 as long as he is able to start with no major issues.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit
Stat: Stafford has thrown nine interceptions in his past three games.
Analysis: Stafford's fractured finger has reportedly healed enough to the point where he no longer needs gloves or a splint. But decision-making has played an equal role in his mistakes. The Saints do rank 27th against the pass, though, so you can expect Stafford to post good fantasy numbers overall even if the picks still are an annoyance.
Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego
Stat: Jackson has failed to score in 7 of 11 games this year.
Analysis: Mr. Inconsistency has scored five of his seven TDs in two games. Jacksonville is in disarray, but also ranks fourth in the NFL against the pass. Jackson cannot be considered a must-start simply based on the Jaguars' overall outlook. If you have a more reliable top-level WR starter, use him over Jackson.
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