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The fantasy draft window is open, the clock is ticking down and you are feeling pressue to make a pick. It is only natural to look back on last season's numbers to justify your selection, especially if some of the player names on the screen seem unfamiliar. But you must tread with caution here -- full-season stats and total fantasy points from the previous year can be extremely deceiving.
Remember that the fantasy regular season only lasts about 12 or 13 weeks (depending on your league) while the real NFL season is 17 weeks (16 games for each team). Players that started slow but picked up steam late might have salvaged their full-season stat lines well after you were out of the fantasy playoff hunt. If some mid-round draft picks do not produce early on, your fantasy team could be out of the running by Week 6.
Take a player like Cardinals' wideout Michael Floyd for example, who finished the 2014 season with 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns. If you discount the fact that Floyd was a fantasy bust based on his preseason draft value, his stats seem legitimate for a middle-of-the-pack receiver who you might have used in a good matchup or in your FLEX spot in a deeper league.
A more detailed look at Floyd's 2014 game log reveals that four of his six scores came after Week 10. His fantasy production was so inconsistent that his owners struggled to justify keeping him on their roster. Floyd also registered three 100-yard games, two of which came in the first three weeks of the season and then not again until Week 17 when most fantasy leagues had already crowned a champion.
So here's a look at some other names to be wary of at the running back, wide receiver and tight end positions who finished last year with impressive stat lines. But don't let their 2014 season totals fool you into reaching for them this draft season.
All fantasy totals based on NFL.com standard scoring.
Running backs
Isaiah Crowell, Browns | 2014 stats: 8 TDs/694 total yards/113.40 fantasy points
Crowell's eight touchdowns last year came as a surprise as he was virtually unknown in fantasy prior to his two-score Week 1 breakout. But owners seeking consistency from Crowell rarely received it -- he eclipsed 15 carries just twice all season (Week 13, Week 16) and did not have a single 100-yard game. He split backfield duties with fellow rookie Terrance West and veteran Ben Tate for most of the season, which made the Browns' backfield one of the most unpredictable in the league. Now with another young gun in the mix in Duke Johnson, the running back situation in Cleveland is murkier than ever. Don't invest too richly in Crowell this season based on what he did last year.
Andre Williams, Giants | 2014 stats: 7 TDs/851 total yards/127.10 fantasy points
As a rookie last year, Williams got his shot in the spotlight when starting back Rashad Jennings missed time with an injury. Williams piled up seven touchdowns and more than 700 rushing yards over the course of the season, but averaged a mere 3.3 yards per carry. In case you're new to this, that's no bueno. One of the major concerns with Williams was his ability to catch passes, so his duties were mainly limited to rushing the ball (he had 18 receptions). While he did break the 100-yard rushing mark in two games, they didn't come until Weeks 14 and 16 when most fantasy owners had been relegated to the consolation bracket. With a healthy Jennings back and the acquisition of Shane Vereen, Williams should see a major decline in opportunities and in turn, fantasy points this season.
Matt Asiata, Vikings | 2014 stats: 10 total TDs/892 total yards/150.2 fantasy points
This one is obvious, but if you're a more casual player and are sorting through 2014 stats for running back targets, you could easily fall right into the Asiata trap. The plodder scored his nine rushing touchdowns last year in a total of four games (save for a single receiving score in Week 2). His scoring came in clusters that were few and far between: Three scores in Week 4, three in Week 9 and then three in Weeks 15 and 16 combined. Starting Asiata on the right week was nearly impossible. Now, Adrian Peterson is back and Asiata has been bumped down the depth chart into fantasy irrelevance. Don't get duped.
Wide receivers
Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs | 2014 stats: 10 TDs/1,318 yards/191.80 fantasy points
While Maclin finished last season as a top-10 fantasy option at his position with the Eagles, he is now in a completely different situation in Kansas City. This by no means is a knock on Maclin's talent -- he demonstrated last year that he needs to be considered in the conversation along with some of the NFL's best receivers. But although he projects as the No. 1 receiver for the Chiefs, lest we forget that this is a team that failed to complete a touchdown pass to a single wideout last year. Plus, quarterback Alex Smith always seems to be the butt of jokes when it comes to throwing the deep ball. All signs point to a downturn for Maclin following the best statistical campaign of his career.
Torrey Smith, 49ers | 2014 stats: 11 TDs/767 yards/142.70 fantasy points
If you are sorting wide receivers by 2014 touchdown totals, Smith ranks in the top 10. His career high 11 scores put him on par with the likes of Demaryius Thomas. But a closer look at Smith's game log shows that he was comatose at the start of the season in Baltimore with just 85 yards combined in the Ravens' first three games. While he finally started to regain consciousness in Week 6, seven of his 11 regular season touchdowns came after Week 8. Over the last few years, Smith made his name as a deep-threat who can stretch the field, yet he failed to reach the 100-yard receiving mark in a single game. He now finds himself in a San Francisco offense that ranked 30th in the league last season in total passing yards and passing yards per game. He will still be a top target for Colin Kaepernick but do not bank on double-digit scores again.
Terrance Williams, Cowboys | 2014 stats: 8 TDs/621 yards/110.1 fantasy points
In Dallas, Williams was off to a scintillating start to his second season in the NFL. He scored six touchdowns in the Cowboys' first seven games, yet he had only caught 19 passes in that same span. Sure enough, his streak slowed midseason and he went the next six games without a score. And while Williams was a savior in the postseason with three touchdowns in two games he still finished fourth on the Cowboys in receptions with 37 for the year. While Williams could see an uptick in volume this season, a repeat of eight touchdowns seems out of reach.
Tight ends
Dwayne Allen, Colts |* 2014 stats: 8 TDs/395 yards/87.50 fantasy points*
Last season, Allen was the epitome of a "touchdown-dependent" tight end. Seven of his eight touchdowns came in the Colts' first nine games, yet he hauled in just 29 receptions for 395 yards on the season and never tallied more than 64 yards or four catches in a single contest. And according to Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus, Allen finished dead last in route percentage (52 percent) among tight ends in 2014. While his touchdown total could easily lure fantasy enthusiasts into drafting him, Allen's low yardage total is also a major red flag. With so many mouths to feed in Indy, don't expect his scoring production to continue at the same level in 2015. Also keep in mind that fellow Colts' tight end Coby Fleener scored the same amount of times as Allen last year but was much more valuable with 774 yards on 51 receptions.
Martellus Bennett, Bears | 2014 stats: 6 TDs/916 yards/131.60 fantasy points
The Bears' tight end came out of the gate on fire with four touchdowns in Chicago's first three games and piled up 134 yards in Week 4. But as soon as the calendar turned over to October, Bennett's fantasy production froze up along with the Chicago winter air. He only scored twice for the rest of the season and while he led NFL tight ends with 90 receptions and registered nearly 1,000 receiving yards, the veteran is due for a statistical drop off this year.
Larry Donnell, Giants | 2014 stats: 6 TD/623 yards/90.30 fantasy points
Donnell emerged last season as the 12th-highest scoring tight end in fantasy but 50 percent of his touchdowns for the season came in a single game. His inconsistency following his Week 4 outburst plagued those who plucked him off the waiver wire for the rest of the season. Donnell also lost four fumbles -- more than any other tight end in the league. As is the case with tight ends these days, there remains the chance of a big game once in a while but don't let his 2014 touchdown total deceive you into reaching for him on draft day.
Matt Franciscovich is an associate fantasy editor at NFL.com. He's been starting his mornings off with The Chemical Brothers' new song "Go" to get in the zone. Hit him up on Twitter _**@mfranciscovich**_ for music recommendations and fantasy advice.
