On the eve of the 2019 NFL Draft, here's my fourth and final look at how teams will pick when Round 1 begins on Thursday in Nashville, Tennessee.
This is my seventh year covering the draft for NFL Media and this is by far the most challenging first round I've tried to project. There's more misinformation and less solid info known about teams' interest in prospects than I can recall encountering in past years. I do expect we'll see a lot of movement on Thursday, especially in the back half of the opening round. Get your popcorn ready!
There's a lot of chatter about the Cardinals being undecided on what they'll do with the first pick. I'm sticking with Murray as their choice.
The Giants need a pass rusher and a quarterback. I'm hearing they'll look to get a pass rusher first, and they land one of the best available this year in Allen.
This decision could come down to Hockenson vs. Jonah Williams or Jawaan Taylor. However, if you study the great teams Tom Coughlin's been a part of either as a head coach or member of Bill Parcells' staff, there's been a powerful inline tight end on the roster (I'm thinking of guys like Jeremy Shockey and Mark Bavaro). Hockenson will have an impact in the run and pass game.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH LIONS. There are a lot of rumblings about Detroit and Buffalo looking to trade down, and the Texans are desperate for tackle help. They could afford to part with one of their two second-round picks this year (they hold Picks 54 and 55) as well as a Day 2 pick next year to get up into this range.
Buffalo would love to trade down, but their offseason has been all about trying to support Josh Allen. Williams is a steady, solid player who will help keep the QB upright.
The Broncos have done a lot of work on this year's QB class, but they ultimately address the defensive side of the ball in Round 1. Bush has a chance to be an elite player in this defense.
Burns is a polarizing player around the league, but no one doubts that he has the best get-off quickness in the draft. Cincinnati needs help on defense, and Burns fits the bill.
Dolphins D-line coach Marion Hobby coached Wilkins during his first two seasons at Clemson. He's one of the safer picks in the draft and fills a need.
Sweat will be fascinating to follow on draft day. He's an elite talent, but some teams are concerned about his heart condition.
The Steelers need to add playmakers in the secondary. Ya-Sin is probably the safest corner prospect in the draft.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH TEXANS. Detroit has spent a lot of time evaluating cornerbacks leading up to the draft. They land my top-rated CB after trading down.
I could see the Eagles trading back, but in this scenario, they take the best player available in the trenches and one of the cleaner players in the draft.
GM Chris Ballard is big on upside and the Colts have a patient plan that would allow them to wait for Simmons' eventual impact -- he suffered an ACL tear in February -- as a top-five talent in this draft.
There are a bunch of teams picking late in the first round that are looking at safeties, and I think Savage will find his home in this range.
It would surprise some people to see Williams go this early, but he's a great fit for coordinator Gus Bradley's scheme.
Lock is one of the most difficult players to project in this draft. I could see him going with the sixth pick or falling to the bottom of the first round. Whether it's the Packers or another team that trades up for him, I don't see Lock getting out of Round 1.
I'll be surprised if Fant lasts this long, but I could see the Patriots targeting him in a trade-up if he were to slip in the draft.