A number of prominent fantasy wide receivers have been unreliable and unproductive this season.
Randy Moss has been a disappointment without Tom Brady. Terrell Owens is on pace to finish with 808 yards. Marques Colston has been injured and inconsistent. Plaxico Burress has become a headache in New York. Heck, even Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith have been less than stellar in recent weeks.
Johnson was on absolute fire earlier in the season, but he's scored a combined 11 fantasy points on NFL.com in his last two games. Marshall has scored double-digit points once in non-PPR leagues since Week 5, and Smith has scored four total points since Week 9.
Oh and let's not forget about Braylon Edwards.
Heading into Monday night's game with the Bills, he has fewer fantasy points than Steve Breaston, Muhsin Muhammad and Donnie Avery. Two of those wideouts three weren't even selected in drafts. Edwards had 1,289 yards and scored 16 touchdowns in 2007. Right now, he's on pace to finish this season with 839 yards and five end-zone visits.
This lack of production has been a killer, especially in a season that saw wideouts taken much higher in drafts. But the failures of receivers hasn't been league wide. In fact, there are a number of players who are putting up tremendous numbers for owners. However, several of them weren't listed among the elite receivers in preseason rankings.
There might not have been a better value than Roddy White, who's third in fantasy points among wideouts and on pace for 1,444 yards and 10 touchdowns. Calvin Johnson has been a nice option, ranking fourth in points. Santana Moss, Dwayne Bowe and Lance Moore (who wasn't even on the radar in drafts) have also developed into solid wideouts.
So with three weeks left in fantasy's regular season, you would have been better off with White, Santana Moss and Bowe instead of Randy Moss, Owens and Edwards. That's about par for the course in what has been one of the oddest and most unpredictable fantasy football seasons I can remember in almost a decade in this business.
The real superstars at the wide receiver position have been Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.
This duo has scored a combined 264 fantasy points on NFL.com this season. That's more than the combined points of Owens, Burress, Edwards and Torry Holt! What makes that an even bigger shock is that Boldin missed two games with a fractured sinus. He's been unstoppable since his return to the field, posting an impressive 48 catches for 426 yards and five touchdowns in his last four starts. That amounts to 25 more fantasy points than the second closest wideout (White - 50 points) in that time.
So unless the likes of T.O. and Edwards reverse their statistical fortunes down the stretch, the entire dynamic of the position will be altered for 2009.
While Randy Moss will remain an elite option once Brady returns to the field, fantasy leaguers will see Boldin, Fitzgerald and White selected in more prominent roles. Andre Johnson, Marshall and Steve Smith should also retain their spots among the top options. But because of the position's overall fall in value this season, coupled with the rise of several talented younger running backs, the first few rounds of future drafts will look a lot like the pre-2008 drafts when runners were coveted like pure gold.
OK, let's move on to some of the best and worst performances of Week 11.
Studs
Matt Cassel, QB, New England (42 points): Cassel came out of nowhere to throw for 400 yards and three touchdowns in last Thursday night's loss to the Jets. It was far and away his best performance of the season, but let's not confuse him with Tom Brady. While Cassel is well worth a roster spot, he's still no more than a matchups quarterback in fantasy football. Consider him a low-end starter in Week 12 against the Dolphins.
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis (26 points): Addai finally put up numbers worthy of the first-round selection he warranted in drafts, posting 153 scrimmage yards and two total touchdowns in a win over the Texans. He has now scored six touchdowns in his last four games against this AFC South opponent. Next on the schedule for Addai is a date with the Chargers, who rank 15th against the run this season.
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Justin Gage, WR, Tennessee (26 points): The most surprising member of this week's top-five performers, Gage had four catches, 147 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Jaguars. He has now hauled in eight passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games, so Gage will be a hot name on the waiver wire in all formats. He has a great matchup this week against the Jets, who rank 28th in pass defense.
Shaun Hill, QB, San Francisco (26 points): Hill was a nice sleeper pick heading into the week, and he made good on what was a favorable matchup against the Rams. He completed 15 of 20 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns in what turned out to be a blowout win. While he is definitely worth owning in most leagues with 12-plus teams, Hill is still not a recommended fantasy option in Week 12 against the Cowboys.
Kerry Collins, QB, Tennessee (25 points): Collins has quietly put up huge fantasy numbers over the last two weeks, posting a combined 519 yards and five touchdowns. He was a strong option against the Jaguars, throwing for 230 yards and three touchdowns. While he still shoudn't have been seen as a regular fantasy starters, Collins does have some value this week against the Jets' poor pass defense.
Other notables:Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis (24 points); DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina (24 points); Tyler Thigpen, QB, Kansas City (23 points).
Duds
Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore (1 point): McGahee's stock was on the rise after a 112-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Texans, but he fell on his face at the Meadowlands. The veteran back rushed for 18 yards on nine carries and was a non-factor against the G-Men and their stout run defense. McGahee should be seen as a low-end No. 2 fantasy runner or flex starter in Week 12 against the Eagles.
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego (2 points): Rivers and several of his offensive teammates recorded horrible fantasy numbers in the wind and snow against a motivated Steelers defense. The veteran quarterback tied a season-low with 159 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 10 games. Despite the bad performance, Rivers is still one of the better fantasy options at his position.
Santana Moss, WR, Washington (2 points): The fact that Moss had owned the Cowboys in recent seasons made him a must-start wideout in Week 11. Unfortunately, he had a bad stat line with five catches and 29 yards in a 14-10 loss. Moss, who remains in the top 10 in fantasy points among wideouts on NFL.com, is still a very attractive option in Week 12 against the Seahawks. They are 31st in pass defense.
Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans (3 points): Despite a favorable matchup against the patchwork Broncos defense, Colston was a fantasy failure with three catches and 30 yards. With the emergence of Lance Moore and a deep group of talented wideouts in the Saints' pass attack, Colston could be a bit inconsistent down the stretch. He's a serious bust candidate next Monday night against the Packers.
Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas (3 points): Owens had a bad night from a fantasy perspective, catching five passes for a mere 38 yards. But on the bright side, he came close to scoring his seventh touchdown and was targeted nine times with Tony Romo back under center. With a matchup against his former team, the 49ers, next on the schedule, T.O. should still be seen as a nice option despite the poor numbers.
Other notables:Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City (3 points); Plaxico Burress, WR, N.Y. Giants (4 points), Andre Johnson, WR, Houston (5 points).
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