As fantasy stakes get raised, take fewer WR risks

It's a different week for the Target Report, as the stakes are now raised as to what constitutes an acceptable risk in fantasy. Can you really ride with Kevin Walter, Devin Aromashodu, Demaryius Thomas or Darrius Heyward-Bey? 

Sure, these guys got all the targets this week, but can you put them in your playoff lineup and expect them to give you a glut of fantasy points? Some yes, some no. To the Target Report we go for Week 14.

Target analysis

Walter (Kevin Walter!), Wes Welker and Damian Williams also had ten targets each. Walter does this once every few games -- he has a nice game followed by five bad ones -- but he's not worth a roster spot. Williams is getting the targets, but his production is in the six PPG area, which is not good enough for the fantasy playoffs ...

What did we say last week about Percy Harvin? Every year there's a WR who takes off and carries you to a fantasy title, and Harvin has had 38 catches and five TDs in the last five games. Enjoy the run. He's actually a No. 1 WR in fantasy right now ... 

What did we say last week about Aromashodu? He's Christian Ponder's consistent No. 2 target and has breakout potential each week. He didn't quite reach the production of the week before, but if you're desperate at your flex, he could be a big boost for you. However he's really risk-reward ...

Thomas has officially won the wrestling match with Eric Decker to be Tim Tebow's favorite target. Remember, he was a first-round pick by the Broncos specifically to become this guy. There aren't many players you can pick up at this point and put in your lineup, but Thomas is worth a flex or a WR 3 spot. He has a phenomenal matchup against the Patriots in Week 15 ...

You can insert Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon and quarterback Dan Orlovsky's name in the above paragraph, but I can't recommend starting Garcon. He's too much of a roll of the dice roll ...

The good news: Michael Crabtree continues to be Alex Smith's go-to-guy for the 49ers. The bad news: his fantasy points per game are hit and miss. Some weeks (like Week 13) he's good for 15 points, others (like Week 14) he's good for six. He's one of those players who right now is a flex option at best -- someone you can take a chance on in that spot. But don't take that chance as a No. 2 on your team ...

I assume that at some point Sunday, Raiders wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey walked up to Carson Palmer and told him "Hey, you HAVE to throw it to me now, I'm the only one out here!" But, Hey-Bey still only wound up with barely more than seven fantasy points despite the attention from Palmer. I think he sits on your bench because if you can't put up points when James Jett is playing opposite you, when are you going to be able to do it? Stay away from Hey-Bey (That's a pretty good chant if you want to do an "Occupy Oakland" since the Raiders are spiraling downward). 

Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe was good for about six points on Revis Island on Sunday. Don't expect him to get it going until Kyle Orton takes over at quarterback. Bowe is a huge risk every week, and I'd sit him for now.

See Jason Smith on "NFL Fantasy Live," airing Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET on the "NFL RedZone" channel, and Tuesday-Friday on NFL Network at 2 p.m. ET and 12 a.m. ET/9 p.m. PT. He writes fantasy and other NFL pith on NFL.com daily. Talk to him on Twitter @howaboutafresca. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.

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