Most of the NFL is shocked by the state of affairs with the Saints. Many people picked them as their preseason Super Bowl selection. They have a high-powered offense, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and a very bright young coach. But after an 0-2 start, they are far from regaining the magic they had in 2006. It looks like the emotional state that galvanized the team last year because of Hurricane Katrina is missing and they are searching for an identity.
The Titans, meanwhile, are about as under the radar as an NFL team can be. It has been years since they played on Monday Night Football and they plan to make the best of their limited opportunities to showcase where the team is headed.
It was tough for the Saints to start the season with two road games, but they got the same deal last year and won both games. This year they come home winless and have a backs-to-the-wall feeling.
The Saints must turn this season around right now. Meanwhile, the Titans just keep getting better and know their future will be with Jeff Fisher guiding them because he just signed a long-term extension to remain in Tennessee.
Bourbon Street will be rockin'. Reggie Bush and Vince Young will supply the fireworks and this game could be a defining moment for both teams. Is it the Titans' coming-out party and a nail in the Saints' coffin, or is it the Saints' turnaround?
IF YOU LIKE THE SAINTS
1. This is their home opener... last year they beat the Falcons 23-3 in the first home game (also on Monday night).
2. Brees has more completions (54) than Young has attempts (45).
3. Deuce McAllister is averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
4. The Saints have the same players who led the NFL in offense last year.
5. The Saint defense has the same core of players who were a top 10 team in sacks, passing yardage, and first downs last year.
IF YOU LIKE THE TITANS
1. The Saints went 1-3 vs. the AFC last year and gave up an average of 29.5 points in those four games.
2. The Titans have won four in a row on the road dating back to last year.
3. The Saints are averaging just 12 points per game this year after averaging 26 in '06.
4. Vince Young is 7-2 in his last nine games.
5. The Titans are averaging 5.1 yards per rush and the Saints are giving up 4.1 per rush.
6. The Saints have already allowed five touchdown passes and receivers average 19 yards per TD catch.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Tennessee DE Kyle Vanden Bosch vs. OT Jammal Brown: Vanden Bosch was moved over to the right side next to Albert Haynesworth and the first dividend was a sack on Peyton Manning. The Saints will not give Brown any help blocking Vanden Bosch and this may be the most intense fight all night. Brees has been averaging 42 passes a game and protecting him is critical. Venden Bosch may not get his best work done until the fourth quarter when he's worn Brown down.
2. Tennessee DT Albert Haynesworth vs. OG Jamar Nesbit: Haynesworth is playing the best football of his professional career. He is disruptive inside against the run and most observers feel the Saints will attempt to run Deuce McAllister more this week than in the past two games. Nesbit has his hands full with the 6-foot-6, 320-pound tackle who has recorded 6 solo tackles, 1 sack and 2 passes defended.
3. Tennessee LT Michael Roos vs. DE Will Smith: Roos is a very physical player who is starting to emerge as a quality NFL starter. He is up against a high-motor pass rusher in Smith. The Saints don't have a sack this season, but being at home should give Smith a better "get off" than Roos has seen this season.
4. Tennessee WR Eric Moulds vs. CB Mike McKenzie: On the road in a loud arena, Vince Young will lean on his veteran receiver to help move the chains. Moulds may have lost a step over the years but he has been in these kinds of games before. Not many of the Titans have played on the national stage of MNF. McKenzie will have to take Moulds by himself and when Young starts to take off and run he is going to have to stick with him in case Young throws off the scramble.
5. Tennessee SS Chris Hope vs. TE Eric Johnson: Brees has come to depend on his tight end early in the season. Johnson has 11 receptions. Hope has to keep in mind the Saints will run the ball more and not overplay Johnson. Look for Hope to come up and hit Johnson as the ball gets to the tight end.
WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL
Brees would be the first to say that the Saints want a balanced attack. With 85 passes and 52 runs in two games, it is not balanced. The circumstances of the first two games caused the New Orleans offense to abandon the run and play catch-up football. Look for New Orleans to come out and feed the ball to McAllister against a Titans defense that is giving up four yards a carry. Reggie Bush has been corralled in the first two weeks and is averaging 3.7 yards per touch. Last year, Bush averaged 5.4 yards per touch. Early in this game, he probably is a decoy with the fake reverse, motion, and vertical releases to soften the defense.
Somewhere along the way the Saints have to present some deep speed to the Titans defense or the Tennessee will just crowd the line and play the run and short pass attack. What jumps out at me about the Saints pass offense is the yards per catch. The top three receivers - Marques Colston, Eric Johnson, and Bush -- all average less than 9 yards per reception. As a group, their 6.9 yards per reception is a far cry from last year's average of 12.1 yards per catch. If they don't stretch the field they will lose this game.
The Titans defense is a very physical group. Keith Bulluck is going to make sure this game gets reduced to a one-dimensional pass contest and he's athletic enough to matchup on Bush occasionally. Coach Fisher expects his front four to control the line of scrimmage and get to the QB without blitz help. All five of the Titans' sacks are by defensive linemen. CB Cortland Finnegan has the only interception and he's nursing a bad hamstring. Look for Brees to work on him to check out the severity of the injury.
WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL
The Titans have rediscovered the run attack they had when Eddie George was in his prime. They are the number one rushing team in the league, averaging 211.5 yards per game -- more than the Steelers or Broncos. Part of their rushing success is the scrambling ability of Young, but Chris Brown and LenDale have contributed to the average of 5.2 yards per carry.
The film study of the Saints defense has to lead Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow to see very good reasons to throw the ball. Peyton Manning worked on cornerback Jason David and Jeff Garcia came back a week later and averaged 24 yards per completion against that secondary. WR Roydell Williams, with his 18 yards per reception, will get his shots deep and Eric Moulds will take advantage of the Saints safeties dropping down into the box to stop the run.
The Saints defense has a tough task ahead of them. Slow down the best running attack in the NFL, generate a pass rush which has been lacking so far this season and corral Vince Young, who averages 8 runs a game. The home-field noise should help, but the Saints defense can't continue to give up 36 points per game. The Saints have to be careful of a "spy" defense for Young because that can destroy the integrity of the run defense and there aren't many athletes who can actually matchup on Young. The Jacksonville game tape should discourage much use of that concept.
CONCLUSION
These two teams have both played the Indianapolis Colts in the first two weeks of the season. The Titans gave a much better showing against the world champions than the Saints did. Tennessee was able to score twice as many points (20 to 10) and held the Colts to almost half as many points (22 to 41). The Colt players I spoke with felt the Titans were a much more physical team, and the Titans' ability to run the ball behind an underrated o-line would be the difference.
When you compare the two quarterbacks, there is clearly a different style. Brees is a classic QB who can read coverage in a split second and get the ball to the right guy. Pressure from the opposing defenses, a lack of deep speed (unless they start using Bush as their deep threat) and a defense that puts Brees in come-from-behind situations has led to a passing game with far too many short completions -- not to mention 3 interceptions, 3 sacks and not nearly enough points. Brees is now 2-5 in his last seven games, including last year's postseason.
Vince Young is 7-2 in his last nine games and is averaging over 50 yards rushing in those nine games. There is no doubt that Young is looking forward to the national attention MNF brings. I expect him to throw for close to 200 yards against this secondary and run for close to 60 yards. The Titans were 3-1 vs. NFC teams last year and will build on that experience with a close win over the Saints in a game that will feature a late run by Young to set up a game-winning field goal by Rob Bironas. I still believe the Saints will make the playoffs this season but the last thing they needed to see in the home opener was a team like Tennessee.
