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5 must-read fantasy stats: Trust LeSean McCoy

Happy Week 10!!

Each week I'll be giving you five stats to think about as you make your fantasy roster selections. I am also going to give you three high-ceiling picks at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and a kicker and defense that might be available to stream. I am trying to go outside the top few at each position and find some picks that could deliver exceptional value based on their matchup and opportunity (volume, game plan, projected final score). I'm going to try to avoid listing the players who are too obvious.

My goal is to help you think about edging out your opponents with a strong floor and exceptional upside picks. So, the "rules" for this article:

  1. Not super obvious.
    1. As exclusive as possible to this article.
    2. You give me feedback and we evolve it together. Twitter (@cfrelund) is the best for this, unless you are creepy then just stick to rules 1 and 2.

Got all that? Let's go!!!

1. Four

That's the number of teams my model projects with a 72 percent or greater win probability for this week (excludes TNF). These teams include the Steelers, Rams, Lions and Jaguars, with the first three projected for nine-plus point wins (and the Jags by five). Game script could become a concern for these teams if they build big leads early. However, it is worth noting that of these teams, the Rams have stayed the most aggressive in terms of play calling in situations with a seven-plus point lead. Note: I have Jack Doyle with T.Y. Hilton-like upside against the Steelers defense.

2. Nine

That's the number of 20-yard or longer rushes the Saints defense has allowed this season (tied for the league-lead). Don't get bit by the recency-bias bug when it comes to LeSean McCoy's opportunity in this game. Also, keep an eye on Charles Clay's status (he's probable as I am writing this). The Saints linebackers are a higher-probability area for the Bills to target, which could mean good things for Clay in fantasy.

3. Stat snacks to tell your friends that should be relevant this week:

 » Jordan Howard has the most yards after contact for any running back this season both total and per attempt (495 total, 3.1 YAC per rush)
 » The Falcons have scored fewer than 20 points in four of their past five games (something that only happened once last season)
 » The Rams have already scored more points in November of this season -- in one game -- than they did all last season (51 against Giants, scored 50 all of November 2016)

4. Things that probably won't last ...

 » Marcus Mariota has the best passer rating under pressure 96.6 (six games), while I project a win for the Titans (who have the lowest drop percentage in the NFL)
 » Julio Jones only has one receiving touchdown so far this season ...
 » Josh McCown has the league's best completion percentage under pressure at 59.7 percent.

5. If-thens ...

Adapting your lineups post injury report is one of the biggest keys to fantasy wins -- especially in formats where you have access to all the players each week. Here are three for now. I'll tweet out more as they come in.

 » If C.J. Fiedorwicz plays then he's a smart moon shot tight end against the Rams (he's a big target).
 » If Eric Decker doesn't play, Corey Davis gets the biggest bump, then Rishard Matthews, then Delanie Walker (of course, that's if he plays) ... Davis' snap count is increasing and likely to increase more regardless.
 » If Marqise Lee plays, he has great upside (based on top yards after catch percentage earned when lined up outside).

High Ceiling

QB: Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan 
RB: Tevin Coleman, James White, Theo Riddick, Jonathan Stewart 
WR: Robert Woods, Adam Humphries, Jermaine Kearse 
TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Cameron Brate (is that too obvious? Fine. Jack Doyle) 
DEF: Lions, Cardinals, Rams, Steelers

Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter @cfrelund.

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