49ers vs. Colts: Three must-know storylines for Monday's Week 16 prime-time game

Monday's Week 16 finale pits two teams moving in opposite directions against each other.

The Colts, set to host the 49ers, have not experienced victory since Nov. 9 -- and that was in an overtime game in Germany. You'd have to turn the calendar back to Oct. 26 for Indy's last win in front of home fans. They've lost four games in a row since their Week 11 bye, relegating them from AFC South front-runners to a team on the bubble.

Without their quarterback Daniel Jones for the rest of the way, the Colts are in desperation mode, likely needing to win out just for a shot at the playoffs.

Their Bay Area opponent has won four straight, and despite a seemingly endless onslaught of injuries, has a 98% chance to make the playoffs with a clear path to a first-round bye. Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks' Thursday night comeback over the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco can capture the NFC's No. 1 seed by winning its final three games, starting with a trip to Indianapolis before closing the season with two games at Levi's Stadium against the Chicago Bears and Seahawks.

Three must-know storylines

1) Purdy looks to keep rolling

Brock Purdy missing eight games this season is a big reason why San Francisco's standing in the playoff picture is surprising. His return -- and especially his recent return to form -- is one of the primary reasons the 49ers might continue to surprise despite a defense that won't have the same luck of seeing its biggest injured stars come back. Although Purdy has consistently raised the Niners' offensive ceiling compared to his more methodical backup, averaging 27.0 points per game to Mac Jones' 22.8, his never-say-die play style has also opened the door to turnovers. Purdy threw seven interceptions over his first four games this season. Luckily, he's nipped that habit in the bud recently to play INT-free ball in his past two outings, and he's coming off a game in which he had a 140.3 passer rating versus the Tennessee Titans. The question will be whether or not he can keep that up against a Colts defense fresh off likely its best effort of the season. Knowing the team needed extra oomph in Philip Rivers' first game back after unretiring, Indianapolis held Seattle's potent offense to 18 points -- all field goals. It wasn't enough to get the win, but it could build confidence as the unit attempts to serve as the team's backbone down the stretch. The defense's 12 interceptions entering Week 16, tied for seventh in the NFL, should also encourage the Colts when trying to rattle Purdy into some giveaways.

2) Old man Rivers' encore performance

Philip Rivers played shockingly well in his return to the NFL ... for a 44-year-old who retired following the 2020 season and hadn't thrown a touchdown pass in exactly 1,800 days. That caveat is important when looking ahead to his second start, as his limitations were still clear in Week 15 despite the impressive feat of hanging in under center. His deep ball simply wasn't there, which limited players such as Alec Pierce, who leads the team with 785 receiving yards and 20.1 yards per reception but managed just one catch for 16 yards in the loss to Seattle. Rivers was 2 of 8 for 33 yards, a last-second interception and a 4.7 passer rating on throws of 10-plus air yards, per Next Gen Stats. He could certainly improve in that regard with a game under his belt, but it's unlikely the Colts can expose San Francisco through the air apart from dinking in dunking. With that said, Rivers was tremendous with his quick decision-making, going 16 of 18 for 87 passing yards and a touchdown on throws under 10 air yards. He'll likely pepper Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs with easy targets, and they all have the capacity to break one. He'll also benefit from a far easier matchup than the one that initially welcomed him back. With so many injuries on defense, the 49ers are quite easily exposed. They have the fewest sacks (16) in the league, are tied for the second-fewest INTs (five) and are third in passing yards allowed per game since Week 5 (252.6), per NFL Research.

3) Showcase of workhorse backs

The 49ers' Christian McCaffrey and Colts' Jonathan Taylor have both put their teams on their backs for most of the season. McCaffrey entered Week 16 leading the league with 345 touches, which he's turned into 1,742 scrimmage yards (third in the NFL) and 14 scrimmage TDs (tied for third), while Taylor is right behind him 310 touches for 1,761 yards (second) and 18 scores (first). Monday night will feature only the third matchup over the last 20 seasons in which two opposing players each boast 1,700-plus scrimmage yards. Despite their prolific seasons thus far, though, the running backs have fallen into lulls in recent weeks -- at least for their standards. McCaffrey has amassed fewer than 90 scrimmage yards in each of his last two games after falling to reach that mark just once through his first 12 contests. The league's RB leader in both receptions (86) and receiving yards (820), he's coming off a game in which he was limited to one catch for 14 yards. Taylor has also fallen off his early-season pace during the Colts' four-game losing streak. After forcing himself into the QB-saturated MVP race with 113.9 rushing yards per game and 15 TDs on the ground through Week 11, he's dipped to 76.0 rushing yards per game with a lone rushing score since. Still, it would come as no surprise if either running back got back on track Monday as an offensive focal point.

49ers' Week 16 injury report

Colts' Week 16 injury report