2026 NFL fantasy football: 7 riskiest players to draft

Fantasy draft season is all about sorting through players to target based off price and potential.

The risk/reward aspect of building out the perfect juggernaut is all part of the fun, but stacking a roster with too many red-flag players can quickly tip the scales toward a disastrous result. That's especially true when considering individuals who come at a premium or might jump up draft boards before the season begins, whether they're aging fantasy legends, hyped rookies or big names on new teams.

For your benefit, the list below highlights seven of the riskiest potential players to draft in 2026. Each player's average draft position (ADP) is based on FantasyPros' listing for 12-team PPR leagues. Any mention of past scoring finishes is based on PPR leagues, as well.

ADP: Round 1 (RB3)

Fantasy managers who took a chance on CMC last year following his injury-ravaged 2024 campaign were rewarded with the top-scoring player in PPR formats (416.6, per NFL Pro). That does not mean McCaffrey is suddenly risk-free a year later. He arguably comes with more cause for caution this time around. For one, he’s going slightly higher in Round 1, thanks to his Comeback Player of the Year campaign. He also just led the NFL with a career-high 413 touches, which is concerning considering McCaffrey managed to play in just seven combined games across his previous two follow-up seasons to pacing the league in usage.

It was notably the incredible volume -- more so than McCaffrey’ signature explosiveness -- that led to such tremendous fantasy production in 2025. McCaffrey averaged an underwhelming 3.9 yards per carry (tied for 38th among qualified ball-carriers) with -0.5 rushing yards over expected per attempt (46th), and it is fair to worry about the RB age cliff going into his age-30 season. Skipping over him will feel wrong, but it might be best to let someone else play roulette.

ADP: Round 1/2 turn (WR5)

There are currently five wide receivers slated to go in the first round. The first four -- Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown -- finished as WRs 1-4 last season. Right after them going as WR5? Jefferson, who tied for 30th among wideouts in points per game (11.9) in 2025. Jefferson’s fall from an automatic start to a weekly dilemma last season came through no fault of his own, and the Vikings have taken measures to shore up their quarterback situation by signing Kyler Murray.

However, it remains to be seen if Murray can win the job over J.J. McCarthy and return to the Pro Bowl form that’s eluded him for four seasons now. Murray has produced just one top-20 fantasy wideout in his career (DeAndre Hopkins, WR4 in 2020), and it's a bit unnerving that Trey McBride more than doubled his career touchdown total in 12 games after Murray went down last year. It’s entirely possible Jefferson bounces back to being a fantasy cheat code. He possesses otherworldly talent, but it’d be easier to click that draft button if he were to slide a bit further down the board.

ADP: Round 2 (RB13)

The fantasy community loves a rookie running back, but look no further than last year to see why it is important to maintain realistic expectations. The three second-round ball-carriers from the 2025 draft, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey, finished between RB20 and RB26 in fantasy. The latter two endured long waits for extended opportunities, as Henderson saw double-digit carries once in his first seven games and Harvey hit that mark a single time over his first 10 contests. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ first-round pick, Omarion Hampton, got injured just as he was breaking out.

Love profiles most closely to Ashton Jeanty -- both in terms of talent and draft pedigree, as top-10 selections -- but even Jeanty fell short of expectations in Year 1 to finish at RB11. Plus, unlike Jeanty was in Las Vegas, Love doesn’t seem destined for an immediate workhorse role. He’s in a crowded running back room alongside James Conner, Tyler Allgeier and Trey Benson. With the Cardinals far closer to rebuilding than contending, there’s little reason for them to run their prized RB ragged. Keep the situation in mind when Love dazzles in preseason -- because he will.

ADP: Round 2/3 turn (WR9)

Rice’s ability is undeniable. Although he finished as the WR40 last season, his 18.5 points per game (in eight contests) ranked fifth. He’s also entering the season as Kansas City’s top pass catcher, but there’s reason to exercise caution. Rice’s legal issues -- he pleaded guilty to two third-degree felony charges stemming from his role in a highway car crash in March of 2024 -- popped up again this offseason after he violated the terms of his probation, leading to a 30-day jail sentence. In addition to missing the Chiefs’ offseason program, he was in jail for the beginning part of his rehab following a clean-up procedure on his knee.

Having served a six-game suspension and dealt with multiple injuries, Rice has played just 12 games over the past two seasons. That history raises some red flags, and there’s also Patrick Mahomes’ ACL recovery to worry about. Mahomes avoided the PUP list, but early returns might be affected if the QB isn’t 100% himself in Week 1 or if Justin Fields sees a few starts. With that said, Round 3 is littered with players who carry injury-based concerns (Chris Olave, WR12; Malik Nabers, WR13) or face murky off-field situations (Josh Jacobs, RB 14), so Rice is just one mine in a minefield at that stage.

ADP: Round 5 (WR25)

Moore frustrated fantasy owners last season by interrupting maddeningly quiet stretches with boom weeks that were impossible to predict. Across two outings ahead of a two-touchdown Week 12 game, Moore managed one catch for 18 yards. He tallied three receptions for 13 yards over the next two contests before another two-TD showing in Week 15. The result of his topsy-turvy year was a WR35 finish, relegating him to unreliable flex play territory. Moore is squarely back on the fantasy radar after his trade to Buffalo, but should he be?

For Moore to be worth his fifth-round price tag, a couple things must happen. First, the Bills will need to abandon a yearslong philosophy of spreading the ball around. If new head coach Joe Brady is motivated to do that in his reunion with Moore after their successful days in Carolina, the 29-year-old wideout must also prove he’s still got it. There’s a possibility this ends up closer to Amari Cooper’s 2024 effort with the Bills than Stefon Diggs' Buffalo breakout.

ADP: Round 7/8 turn (QB9)

It’s not difficult to imagine Dart breaking into the top five in points scored at quarterback. He finished as a QB1 in nine of his 12 starts as a rookie and possesses the right amount of rushing ability -- plus a nose for the end zone -- to be one of those position breakers in fantasy. Optimism is also rampant in New York following the arrival of John Harbaugh, who oversaw plenty of high-scoring seasons from Lamar Jackson in Baltimore.

But plenty of variables could lead to disappointment, too. Dart did not protect himself well last year. If he buys into playing it safer, his rushing upside could decrease to a degree that it doesn’t cover for Dart still developing as an NFL passer. Conversely, if he does continue running into danger, more injuries might follow. It remains to be seen how quickly superstar Malik Nabers gets back to himself following his ACL injury, and Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Dart has the potential to be awesome, but so does BASE jumping -- make sure you weigh the risks.

ADP: Round 8 (TE9)

If you can draft Kittle near the ninth round as the cherry on top of a well-constructed roster, do it. The issue is the ADP creep that could very well take place as the regular season draws closer. Kittle, who made his seventh Pro Bowl in 2025 despite having his season abbreviated by multiple injuries (including a torn Achilles in January), has repeatedly gone on record to say he could realistically play Week 1. General manager John Lynch also expressed that belief.

That’s great news, but if Kittle comes off the PUP list and his desired recovery timeline indeed takes shape throughout training camp, it’s likely he starts shooting up draft boards. Even in the time between this piece being assigned and turned in, Kittle moved from the 109th pick to the 93rd. He’s a stud who possesses a stellar connection with quarterback Brock Purdy, but be wary of buying into his comeback story if it requires paying a premium. At the end of the day, Kittle is still coming off a devastating leg injury heading into his age-33 season.