Whether you're going RB-RB at the top of your draft, or you're going to be like Michael Fabiano and draft quarterbacks super late, or even if you believe in the zero-RB strategy similar to the one laid out by Alex Gelhar, there are seemingly an endless number of ways to attack your draft. But the No. 1 edict of ALL drafting schemes? Don't take a bust.
Admittedly, I feel a little like Silky Johnson writing this column, hating on a bunch of dudes who are actually quite good in real-life, but for fantasy purposes the following players could disappoint and represent high to very high bust potential.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Let me get this out of the way, Beast Mode is my absolute favorite player in the league. Love him as a real-life player and think he is wildly underappreciated by his peers and by many of us in the media. Here's the Sir Mix-a-Lot sized but ... Lynch has had a ton of carries over the last three years and the team has made a number of indications they want to work in their younger backs like Christine Michael. Lynch's ADP (average draft position) on NFL.com is currently between sixth and seventh overall, but after scoring 14 total touchdowns last season (a mark he's unlikely to match again) I would be shocked if he finished in the top 15 at his position.
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos:Peyton Manning has historically made heroes out of mere running back mortals. The only problem is, you have to start to enjoy the Manning effect and I'm not sure who's going to start for Denver. Didn't we hear the same stories last year about Ball before he got beat out by former-bust-turned-star Knowshon Moreno? I even tried to pin Peyton down on who leads the backfield battle between Ball, Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson ... predictably, Manning masterfully maneuvered around me. Ball (ADP 16) is the highest risk-highest reward player in the first two rounds this year, but I'm betting Ball's pass protection hasn't improved enough for Manning and the staff to fully trust in him.
Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit Lions: Last year Bush (ADP 26) was in a perfect situation in Detroit. Jim Schwartz and his pass-crazy offense suited Bush's skill set. But now Jim Caldwell is the head coach and it's reasonable to expect a much greater run-pass balance, or at least a bigger balance between Ball and his backfield counterpart. Joique Bell is the better between-tackles runner, meaning Bush should cede more carries this year. Plus, while Bush has been the absolute model of health the last three season, missing only a few games here and there, the former USC product does have a prior history of injury that could rear it's ugly head as the 29-year-old enters his ninth NFL season.
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers: Untimely fumbling continues to be a problem for Mathews, and the team brought in ultra-unspectacular but ultra-reliable Donald Brown during the offseason. PPR machine Danny Woodhead is still there to snake the bulk of the passing-down work. A true three-headed timeshare seems inevitable. His current ADP is 39th overall but I'd rather have Rashad Jennings or Frank Gore (and their respective handcuffs of course) who are being drafted later.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals: He's one of this generation's best wide receivers, but in 2014, his reputation exceeds his production. Fitz hasn't had a 1,000 yard season in two years and has only cracked 1,200 yards once in the last five seasons. A lot of his points last season were tied to his 10 touchdowns, a number that could fluctuate wildly. His ADP (40) has him TWO rounds ahead of Cordarrelle Patterson and Roddy White. And much like the Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne situation years ago, I expect Michael Floyd to surpass Fitzgerald in production this season. Oh by the way, Floyd is going FOUR rounds later with an ADP of 80.
Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants: It only seems like Cruz hasn't scored a touchdown since the Reagan administration. In reality the last salsa dance we saw came in Week 4 of last year. Which, by the way, was his only touchdown in his last 13 games. His current ADP of 44th overall (16th wide receiver off the board) is flat out crazy. The offense has looked turrible (Charles Barkley voice) and Cruz should be easily bracketed with only the unproven Rueben Randle on the opposite side. I would take Keenan Allen (48), Cordarrelle Patterson (54), Roddy White (55), Michael Floyd (80) and TY Hilton (85) ahead of Cruz at this point.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills: His ADP is an absurd 46th overall and making him the 18th running back off the board. That means for a good number of managers, Spiller is an RB2. Yikes. Last year, out of the 15 games Spiller played, he had FIVE games where he scored less than 3.6 points in standard scoring leagues. Spiller is in a timeshare and has been for quite some time. When you combine that with his wildly inconsistent weekly production, drafting him is inviting blood pressure meds. He's a borderline flex play ... at best.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns: If the theory is true that Norv Turner transforms tight ends into statistical giants, then shouldn't the opposite be true as well? Shouldn't Turner's departure from Cleveland also mean Cameron (ADP 64, tight end No. 6) will suffer some sort of regression? You throw in Josh Gordon's year-long suspension and it seems likely the Elliot Harrison look-alike will have a tough go of it this season. Gordon's absence will mean defenses can play more packed in, theoretically limiting Cameron's production. I'd rather take Kyle Rudolph (ADP 100) or even Antonio Gates (ADP 130).
San Francisco 49er DS/T: Too many defections, too many injuries, too many aging veterans. The Niners defense has looked horrendous this preseason and while I don't think they'll be that bad once the season starts, there is a zero percent chance they will live up to their current price as the 65th overall selection. oique Bell (ADP 83), Kendall Wright (ADP 92) heck ANY handcuff running back or young wide receiver prospect is a much better value.
