You might have a better shot at winning Warren Buffet's $1 billion March Madness Bracket Challenge or the lotto than you do correctly figuring out the New England Patriots' 2014 NFL Draft plans. Between the secretive nature of the organization and their penchant to trade down for additional picks, it is simply tough to peg down what Bill Belichick is thinking heading into a draft.
That's not going to stop NFL Media analyst Charles Davis from trying, however, and he believes there is at least one really good fit for the team in the first round of the draft if they are actually in the business of taking advice from outsiders.
"Tight end is a need," Davis said on NFL Network's "Path to the Draft". "Rob Gronkowski is coming off what, five surgeries? You just can't predict that he's going to be totally healthy right out of the gate.
"I think Austin Seferian-Jenkins fits perfectly there and I think he would be available. Jace Amaro would be another possibility, but if Austin Seferian-Jenkins is really ready to go and back in the 260 (pounds) range, that would be my choice."
The Patriots have the 29th overall pick in the draft and one figures to see both Seferian-Jenkins and Amaro available in the 20-to-45 range if the team wants to move around a bit to grab additional selections and snag a tight end like Seferian-Jenkins. In the latest NFL.com mock drafts, only NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah has the Washington product going in the first round. Fellow analyst Bucky Brooks' two-round mock draft has both tight ends off the board by the 43rd overall pick.
Seferian-Jenkins was called a "bigger, more athletic" Gronk by an NFC personnel executive prior to the season and it's rare to see such a fluid prospect at the position with his size. Teams such as the Patriots will likely double-check Seferian-Jenkins' past (which includes a DUI prior to his final season in Seattle) and ensure he's fully healthy after having surgery on a stress fracture in his foot, but he would be an impact player in the right system.
With 21 touchdowns in three seasons for the Huskies, the Mackey Award winner would be a top red-zone target for someone like Tom Brady. He's not a speedster at the position like Eric Ebron, but Seferian-Jenkins got behind defenses for big gains often enough in college. On top of being an insurance policy for Gronkoswki, ASJ would certainly be a player with natural, unteachable skills that the Patriots could develop into a potential All-Pro selection.
If the past is any indication though, the mere mention of a player being perfect for the Patriots is a sure sign he won't end up with them. Just don't fault Davis for trying to help out the Patriots' scouting department during the busy lead up to the draft.
Follow Bryan Fischer on Twitter @BryanDFischer.