In his robust Inside The NFL notebook below, NFL Network's Albert Breer touches on multiple topics including (click on the link to take you directly there):
» Four things he's looking forward to in Week 14
» What seven personnel men said they'd do if they ran the Colts
» No. 15 generating buzz and business in Mile High City
» Chargers trying to save season, coach's job
» How DeAngelo Hall clarified his opinion on Mark Sanchez
» Why option football seems to be working just fine in the NFL
» And more, beginning with the surprising chink in the armor of the defending Super Bowl champs ...
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| Clay Matthews and the Packers are second to last in the NFL in total defense. (Jeff Hanisch/US Presswire) |
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The question wasn't complex. Finding a response was the challenge.
Is the Packers defense underachieving?
Green Bay isn't lacking for star power at any level of its defense. The Packers have sunk considerable financial and draft resources into stars on the line, at linebacker and in the secondary. But the unit, fifth in total defense last season, is now sitting at 31st. Underachievers, right?
"Yeah. I wouldn't say," one of the stars, Clay Matthews, said while he collected his thoughts. "That's a tough question to answer."
Fair enough. Matthews didn't want to seem like he was questioning effort. So when I flipped and asked if it was fair to say the defense wasn't playing to its capability, the reigning All-Pro changed his tune.
"I think that's correct," Matthews continued. "With the playmakers we have on this defense, with the coaching staff and the overall support? There's definitely room to be playing at an elite level. And we've shown that in years prior. … There are some mishaps, and times when we let big plays happen or miss tackles, which we have to improve upon. It's encouraging to know that ceiling is very high and we're working towards it, and we're still 12-0."
There is the ultimate trump card. The Packers are, in fact, 12-0, with a very good shot at 16-0, then 19-0 and another world title.
Could the defense stand in the way of all that? History says yes, because the Packers are built like plenty of offense-heavy, close-but-no-cigar clubs of the past.
Consider: Since 2000, eight of 11 world champions have finished ninth or higher in total defense, with five in the Top 5. Conversely, only four of those eight champions were ninth or higher in total offense, with the other seven ranking 15th or lower.
Two of the defenses that were deficient -- the 2001 Patriots and 2006 Colts -- got hot in the playoffs, and the third, the 2009 Saints' group, was able to make just enough big plays to get by. And therein lies the answer for this Packers defense, playing opposite a historically prolific offensive outfit.
Statistically, the defense isn't going to be what it was last year. The idea is to become that good over the short term, for the playoffs, something the players think is within their grasp.
"No doubt," 11th-year defensive lineman Ryan Pickett said. "I know it can be (better), and when we do fix it, it's gonna be great. But it's something we know we can fix. It's not like we're just getting beat by better players. It's not that. If it was that, I might be like, 'We can patch this up …' It's not. We're not getting beat by better players. We're just not doing the things we were taught to do right."
The talent here is what makes the Packers' struggles so difficult to understand. Green Bay had four Pro Bowl players on that side of the ball in 2010, in Matthews, Charles Woodson, Nick Collins and Tramon Williams. Collins is on IR, and Williams did battle a shoulder problem through the early parts of the season, but he and Matthews are part of a young core that also includes ascending lineman B.J. Raji and linebacker Desmond Bishop.
Throw in valuable cogs like Pickett and A.J. Hawk, and it's tough to see where it's gone wrong. Coach Mike McCarthy said earlier this week that about "five plays a game" separates the Packers defense from where it needs to be.
"Giving up big plays, man, that's been our Achilles' heel all year," said Pickett. "You watch our tape, (defensive coordinator Dom Capers) will put our stats up -- for 50 plays, we'll only give up 170 yards, and then on four plays, we give up 250 yards. … He'll put it up there and say, 'If we straighten these four plays out, we'll be good.' That's been our Achilles' heel. There's no hiding from it. There's no excuses. That's what it is. We make some big plays when we have to, but I don't think that's good enough."
Pickett continued by emphasizing that there's not one single issue, but rather a consistency problem across the board. And Matthews pointed out that the defense has been able to mitigate disaster in some spots and keep the points allowed reasonable (the defense ranks 17th in that category).
Elliot Harrison sat down with ex-Saint and ex-Packer Darren Sharper to get his unique perspective on Green Bay and New Orleans. More ... But what's really frustrated the players is that too often, when they seem to have that corner-turning performance, the problems resurface the following week.
"We had it right against Detroit. We had it right against Minnesota, Atlanta," Pickett says. "It's very frustrating. We think we have it right, and then we give up big plays. We know how to do it."
That's why Pickett confidently adds, "Perception is that we're far off. But the reality is we're not."
But the reality now is that, with the potential of a playoff game against a team like San Francisco, which wouldn't just be steamrolled by Aaron Rodgers and Co., there's the chance the Packers will have to play a different kind of game in January. And that's when the defense's improvement will really be necessary.
"We're just a game away, really," Matthews told me. "We've shown glimpses of dominance, and we've also shown glimpses of uncharacteristic Packers defense. Really, we're that close. Right now, we've put ourselves in a very good position for the playoffs, to seed ourselves high, and then that's when it really matters. We'll find out here in a few weeks."
No-brainer for Colts?
Archie Manning's comments about the probability that his son Peyton and Stanford star Andrew Luck (who unofficially declared for the draft this week, to no one's surprise) could co-exist, and then his retraction of those comments, have brought to light the reality that the Colts will go into this offseason with hard decisions to make.
Last week, we found out that Peyton was ready to ramp up his rehab, a sign the spinal fusion surgery he underwent in September was successful. But what really needs to be known is when the nerve regeneration will happen in his neck, something that's wildly unpredictable. The average timetable is in the 9-12 month range, which would mean next summer for Manning. It could happen next week, or it might not happen at all.
What that tells you is there's a very good chance the Colts will remain in very uncertain territory with Manning come the early parts of the offseason, when they'd have to decide on their current quarterback (via his $28 million option bonus, due in March), and whether or not to take their next one with the first pick, assuming they keep losing.
And so with all that ahead, I ran an informal poll of three general managers and four other personnel executives to see what they'd do in this circumstance.
All seven said they'd keep the first pick and draft Luck.
Another strong feeling that came back: If this uncertainty lingers, and Manning chooses not to delay the payment of the $28 million bonus, the smart play is to make a bid to deal the quarterback who changed the face of the franchise in Indianapolis.
"You're gonna handcuff the franchise out of what? Loyalty?" said one NFC personnel exec. "I'll tell you what, loyalty has been cashing those checks every week for the last 14 years."
Another NFC exec said he wouldn't trade Manning -- "He'll go somewhere and beat you" -- but he'd be even more reluctant to trade the rights to a 22-year-old version of No. 18. And so the answer, he continued, is to play hardball with the Lucks and Mannings, if need be. "I would have a meeting and say to them, 'You're gonna wind up making yourself look bad. I'd say to Oliver (Luck), hold him out the whole year if you want, we're not budging. I wouldn't let the two fathers dictate anything."
The fear, of course, has existed for some time that Oliver Luck will play a pivotal role in where his son lands as an NFL quarterback, and it's something Archie has already done, with Eli back in 2004. But there is belief that, if forced into a situation like that for 2012 and 2013, the two quarterbacks would be fine together. Archie Manning said as much in his latest comments and it seems like NFL folks are buying.
"You take the quarterback and you deal with whatever situation you have going on with Manning," said an NFC general manager. "You can't pass on a young quarterback like that, especially when you have someone with a neck issue, and my understanding is that the neck issue is very serious. … For a year or two, you're gonna take shots, but then (Luck) is gonna get on his feet and start playing. You never not take a player because of something else going on, especially at that position, I don't care who it is."
As one AFC exec so succinctly put it, by taking Luck, you set up having "30 years of top play at the most important position on the field."
Another thing emphasized in these discussion is how fortunate the Colts are, with the timing of all this. And, of course, how it's now incumbent on the club to take advantage of that.
Cashing in on Tebow Time
The Bears might possess the sort of disruptive defensive force that could put an end to Tebowmania, Steve Wyche writes. More ... I was as skeptical as anyone about Tim Tebow coming out of college, coming into this year, and even when he took over as starter before the Miami game. And there's no denying this anymore: He's been good for that football team, playing a brand of ball that's giving defensive coordinators fits and controlling the pace in a way that allows an ascending defense to set up all these comeback wins.
But he's more than just good for football in Denver. He's good for business, too.
Here's how ridiculous it's gotten: The wife of Broncos president Joe Ellis wanted a Tebow jersey, and couldn't find one, despite having some pretty good connections at Dove Valley. As Ellis himself puts it, "It's a tough one to find."
And then, of course, earlier this week, there was the mudwrestling between CBS and NBC over the Patriots-Broncos game on Dec. 18, something that was pretty unimaginable a year ago when the team was playing out the string with an interim coach and Ellis was trying to help find direction for a franchise that had lost its way. "We'd have taken that result," he said.
"This place is on fire for Sunday," Ellis continued from his office on Thursday night. "We track the sales of our tickets on the secondary market, on the Internet -- eBay, StubHub, Ticketmaster, Razorgator. We track all of it. And this week, there are a very limited number of tickets available for purchase. And the reason, we think, is all the season-ticket holders are showing on Sunday. They're all in. That tells me that on Sunday, Sports Authority Field is gonna be electric and alive."
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It's not just in Denver, either. The team's television ratings are up 18-20 percent from this point last year, and while the Broncos have a sellout streak that stretches back to 1970 officially, they have seen a boost in premium seating and suite sales. And while Ellis wants to spread the credit, he's well aware of the buzz the guy who wears No. 15 is generating.
"There's one thing I'll say that Tim Tebow has given our organization, our fans and our community, and that's hope," Ellis said. "He's been a great player for us so far, a terrific player. And you take the person, all the intangibles, the will, the desire, the competitiveness and leadership, I think it just gives people hope, in the locker room, in the building, in the community."
Whether all this has staying power remains to be seen. Ellis himself says, "We've come a long way. We've got a long way to go."
On the other hand, there's no denying what kind of story this has been for a club that so badly needed it.
"I just think where we came from a year ago to today, without putting blame anywhere, because there was plenty to go around, has restored the faith, the hope of the season-ticket holders, the fans, the community," Ellis said. "Everyone's feeding off how the season's gone. To start 1-4, then start winning in dramatic fashion, it sure gets people talking, gets them interested."
No playoffs, new coach in San Diego?
All indications are that, without a playoff berth, the Chargers will be searching for a new coach come January. And yes, the players hear that drumbeat about their leader, Norv Turner.
"I hope no one plays any harder now than they have been, because then we'd have been cheating ourselves," quarterback Philip Rivers told me on Thursday. "But we hear the talk. And I'll bet you this: There's not one guy in that locker room who wouldn't tell you he loves playing for Norv. He's never gotten the credit he deserves."
If you couldn't tell, Rivers is pretty serious in defending Turner.
"He's had a lot to do with why we've won so many games around here," Rivers continued. "When we were 4-8 (in 2008), he's a reason we got out of it. He's a reason we won 11 in a row (in 2009). He's never flinched, and I know from the outside, that looks like he's laid back, but he wants to win more than anyone and he's as passionate as anyone. This all has been rough on everyone."
As for Rivers himself, at least for one night, he was back to his old self against a pretty respectable Jaguars defense, completing 22-of-28 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns as the club snapped a six-game losing streak.
It was the second straight game Rivers avoided throwing a pick, after he threw 10 in the previous five games, all losses, and the first in which he says he struck the right balance between game manager and gunslinger. He conceded that in the Chargers' 16-13 loss to Denver, he was too cautious with the ball, and it cost the team. Previously, of course, he was too loose with it.
"Against Denver, I was too careful, and I missed some throws I'd normally make, those became incompletions," Rivers said. "There's a fine line between being careful and aggressive. You want to be smart, but if you're not aggressive, you won't make plays. ... I don't read a lot into stats, but the one stat that's directly tied to winning and losing is turnovers. And the bottom line is I've had way more, and we've had way more than we've had in the past."
The Chargers sit on the fringe of the playoff race now (playoff picture | clinching scenarios). Winning out is a must, of course, and will likely not only determine the course of the season, but the franchise in San Diego.
"If there's such a thing as a six-game losing streak where you played well enough to win every game, we've had it," Rivers said. "We were right there. That's doesn't make them better. But when you put it together, you say, 'Gosh, no way it's going to keep going like this.' Have we turned the corner? We'll see. At this point, we have to do our part, rough as it's been. Let's not say, 'If we would have ...' Let's win another game."
And, of course, hope and pray it's not too late for everyone.
Sanchez 'knows how to win'
Last week, some comments made by Redskins corner DeAngelo Hall about Mark Sanchez being a "middle-of-the-road" quarterback made headlines. I asked Hall about it, and he clarified what he meant, but didn't exactly back down either.
"I said the top tier quarterbacks are obviously gonna be your Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady -- those are the tops of the top," Hall told me. "I meant that Sanchez, being a younger guy in this league, is middle of the pack. He's played in a couple AFC Championship Games, so he definitely knows how to win football games. But so far this season, he's been a little bit confused at times."
Truth is, Hall might just be like the rest of us, having a hard time figuring Sanchez out as a player.
Take last Sunday against the Redskins. Going into the final 7:52, Sanchez was 16-of-29 for 117 yards, and his team was down 16-13. Those numbers say "Captain Checkdown", but the performance was worse than the figures.
And then, the light turned on. Sanchez went 3-for-3 for 48 yards on the go-ahead drive, with a heads-up, shovel pass to Shonn Greene converting a crucial third down, and a perfect 30-yard strike to Santonio Holmes to seize the lead back for New York.
Similarly, a week prior against Buffalo, Sanchez was 11-of-27 for 119 yards (though he threw three touchdown passes against just one pick) going into the defining possession of the game for the Jets. On that one, he finished up 6-for-8 for 61 yards and the winning touchdown, again, to Holmes.
Can the Jets keep winning like this? If their running game and defense can be at 2009 or 2010 levels, then yes.
That formula is simple: Keep it close. And then at the end, as Hall said, hand to No. 6, since while he's far from perfect, Sanchez "knows how to win football games."
Four things I'll be looking for this weekend
1) Whether or not the Titans can take their game with the Saints into a dark alley. Tennessee's built its team with strength along the line of scrimmage, something that's finally being accentuated now that Chris Johnson has played himself back into shape. And we'll find out something about that team this weekend with the Saints coming to Nashville. But I think there'll be plenty to explore here too with New Orleans, the team I picked to win the Super Bowl back in August. The Titans are built the same way the 49ers are, and San Francisco's style could well be kryptonite to the way New Orleans and Green Bay play, since the 49ers are capable of turning games into street fights and taking high-flying teams out of their element. So maybe we get a little preview this week of what 49ers-Saints would look like in a divisional playoff at Candlestick, or how Niners-Packers could play out the next week at Lambeau.
2) How the Bears' wheels on defense keep pace with Tim Tebow. Lovie Smith told me earlier in the year that the reason why his defenses in Chicago, and the ones he used to be a part of in Tampa, have had success against Michael Vick is "because our philosophy is to put 11 athletes out there." Indeed, the Bears held Vick to 34 yards rushing this year, and didn't compromise themselves in other areas in the process. So in theory, Chicago's history of playing a disciplined, fast game against a quarterback like Vick should serve them well against Tebow this week. The challenge for the Bears remains immense, going on the road against a red-hot team without Jay Cutler or Matt Forte. But at the very least, it stands to reason that Tebow will be challenged to throw the ball more this week than at any point in the recent past.
3) How the Cowboys respond. There's little question this Dallas group is more disciplined and accountable than its recent predecessors. But is it more consistent? Three weeks ago, Jerry Jones told me he was happy to see that Jason Garrett had the kind of win Dallas pulled off in Washington "in his repertoire." He proved he did again, four days later, against the Dolphins on Thanksgiving. And finally, last Sunday, the dam broke in an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cowboys have shown toughness and grit this year, and part of that is being able to grind out a win when your "A game" pulls a no-show. But the fact is the Cowboys haven't put together a complete effort since their destruction of Buffalo almost a month ago. And they'll need one with the Giants, in a similarly desperate position, coming to JerryWorld on Sunday.
4) Where the Lions' heads are at. Several high-ranking club officials wondered aloud to me last week just where Ndamukong Suh's discipline problems were coming from, saying the second-year pro was as clean as they came in the 2010 draft from a character standpoint. Fair or not, perception across the league is starting to lean toward the Lions' environment being part of the issue, an idea that was certainly reinforced in their chippy, flag-filled loss to New Orleans last Sunday. The fact is, Detroit is going to be under close scrutiny for that stuff for the rest of this season, and maybe beyond, and other teams are certainly going to do things to bait Lions players who carry hothead reputations. So it'll be interesting to see what happens with a lacking, but feisty Vikings team coming to Ford Field on Sunday.
Three conclusions
The spread offense isn't new, and Michael Lombardi says Cam Newton and Tim Tebow are proving that it can work in today's NFL. More ... » Watch: Dolphins unleash Wildcat
1) Option football works in the NFL. The Wildcat craze of 2008 proved it to a degree, as teams snuck pistol and read-option plays in with the speed option. And Tim Tebow and Cam Newton are reinforcing it on a weekly basis. The problem in the past wasn't the speed of the defense. It works conceptually. It was the ability to keep a quarterback healthy and upright playing that style, and it appears that the hulking Tebow and Newton are equal to that test. And the result has been the players around those quarterbacks benefitting. DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Willis McGahee are all averaging around five yards a carry, which is partially due to the stress the option puts on a defense, as are the big plays in the passing game that Denver and Carolina are getting with receivers running free downfield. All in all, it's a nightmare for defensive coordinators to prepare for.
2) The Houston Texans have a roster ready not just to get to the playoffs, but to win games there. And their ability to take down an Atlanta team that was playing awfully well, with a rookie fifth-round pick at quarterback, is proof positive. Generally, teams that are "all about the quarterback" have a hard time winning in January. Almost inevitably, you'll find yourself in a slugfest in the postseason where other aspects of the team have to rise up, something that hurt Peyton Manning early in his career and Tom Brady more recently. What the Texans showed last Sunday, with T.J. Yates at the helm, is that they are very capable of winning important games without the quarterback playing a starring role. Does that mean they'll win it all this year? Heck no. But it means that team owner Bob McNair should be happy that he held on to general manager Rick Smith and coach Gary Kubiak, and pretty excited about 2012.
3) Monday is an important night for the Rams brass. Last year, Seattle and St. Louis played for the NFC West title on the final day of the season, and it seemed that both teams -- accelerated into that spot because of how bad the division was -- had bright futures. This year, even taking the Rams' injuries into account, it's looked like the Seahawks have passed the Rams, as far as each team's building process goes. And that's not good for St. Louis, considering that general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll have barely been in Seattle for two years. Ultimately, clubs are measured against their division rivals, and with the Niners having taken a quantum leap, it wouldn't bode well for the Rams' football people if they find themselves firmly behind the Seahawks as well when the book closes on 2011.
Two pieces of business
1) Let's all calm down with the self-righteous indignation over the Packers' stock sale. Anyone saying that the $250 pieces of paper aren't much more than souvenirs is, of course, mostly correct. But this isn't any different than teams across sports, college and pro, having brick drives as part of new stadium plans or renovations. It's a piece of memorabilia that connects the fan to the team, and it'll go to benefit the team's long-term prospects. Plus, no one's holding a gun to anyone's head over this. The Packers are a business, and it makes sense to capitalize when business is good, which it clearly is right now in Green Bay.
2) It's easy to lose in the stadium game. With the Packers taking the aforementioned strike-when-the-iron-is-hot approach to renovating Lambeau again, and the 49ers making progress this week in pushing their Santa Clara stadium project closer to reality, it's worth keeping an eye on progress in Minnesota. The plans seem to change week-to-week there -- Arden Hills to Minneapolis to "Oh wait, it's not just Los Angeles coming after us" -- and it's hard not to think going 2-10 this year has had some impact on a community that was already very reluctant to sink public dollars into a private business. You have to wonder whether or not the Vikings blew their best chance back in early 2010, when they were coming of a 12-4 season and appearance in the NFC title game.
One prediction
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The Buccaneers will rally around Raheem Morris, the embattled coach who's done a good job shepherding a rebuilding team, but one who showed his youth after a bad loss to Carolina last Sunday.
Part of that has to do with the opponent -- a Jaguars team that's been through an emotional roller-coaster, and is playing on a short week.
But part of it, too, is the loyalty that Morris' players have for him. Earlier this year, the club felt comfortable taking on Albert Haynesworth in large part because of the coach, and his handling of situations like Aqib Talib's, and personalities like Kellen Winslow's. The Haynesworth move hasn't worked out as planned, and the team is out of the playoff race now.
Still, my guess is the club will come out scrapping the next few weeks, with its leader backed into a corner. And I think that'll say plenty for the job that Morris has done over the last three years as Tampa Bay has reinvented itself.
Follow Albert Breer on Twitter @albertbreer.
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