Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn't be further away from the playoffs. But the league's two worst teams couldn't be much closer in the running for the No. 1 overall draft pick.
The team with the NFL's worst record, with a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker when needed, gets the top pick in the draft. Strength of schedule is based strictly on the winning percentage of opponents, and the Titans and Bucs are virtually tied in that area with one game to play. Tennessee enters Week 17 in the lead, with their opponents having compiled a .484 winning percentage. Tampa Bay opponents own a .489 SoS percentage.
While the race appears close, in actuality, the 2-13 Buccaneers hold the inside track. Lose at home to New Orleans on Sunday, and they are on the clock. Beat the Saints, and the 2-13 Titans can get the No. 1 pick by losing at home to Indianapolis.
No matter what happens in games around the league on Sunday, the Titans and Bucs are locked into the top two draft positions, according NFL Media researchers. That's because the SoS percentages for all the 3-12 clubs (Jets, Jaguars and Raiders) are far superior and would make it impossible for those teams to leapfrog forward.
According to advancedanalytics.com, Tampa Bay has a 75 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick; Tennessee's odds are at 25 percent. Jacksonville, according to the website, has the best odds of getting the No. 3 pick at 74 percent. The Jets (20 percent), Raiders (5 percent) and the 4-11 Redskins (1 percent) follow in the running for No. 3.
The interesting part about the race for No. 1 is that the top needs for both the Titans and Buccaneers are very similar, presumably making them interested in the same pool of prospects. NFL Media senior analyst Gil Brandt identifies both quarterback and pass rusher as primary needs for both clubs.
The difference between drafting first overall and second overall has historically been a blessing -- and a curse.
The list of No. 1 picks faring significantly better than the No. 2 pick, in recent history, includes Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin III (2012), Matthew Stafford vs. Jason Smith (2009), and Eli Manning vs. Robert Gallery (2004). But the No. 2 pick has been known to fare better than the top pick in some instances, as well (see 2007, when the Detroit Lions took Calvin Johnson behind Oakland Raiders bust JaMarcus Russell).
The Titans draw the visiting 10-5 Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Tampa Bay plays host to a 6-9 Saints team coming off a disheartening loss to Atlanta that knocked them from playoff contention.
*Follow Chase Goodbread on Twitter **@ChaseGoodbread*.
