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Posted Aug. 14, 2008

Schedule analysis can also be valuable in the world of fantasy football. Rather than calculate wins and losses, we've added up the opposition's 2007 defensive rank against the pass and the run. For example, if a team has Minnesota (32nd vs. pass) and Detroit (31st vs. pass) on its schedule, those two teams are worth a combined 63 points in our research. The higher the point total for all 16 contests, the easier the team's schedule.

On the flip side, if a team faces both Tampa Bay (1st vs. pass) and Indianapolis (2nd vs. pass), it is rewarded a combined two points. The lower the point total, the harder the schedule. Based on our final point totals, we will have an idea of how schedules can increase or decrease the value of players. While I wouldn't base the decision to draft or not draft a player based on schedule alone, this sort of data can be valuable when owners have to decide between two or three players at the same position with similar value.

Now that we have the parameters for our research, let's take a look at the ever results.

Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
364 points
Atlanta (2), Carolina (2), Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans (2), Oakland, San Diego, Seattle Fantasy footballers will notice a trend at the top of the pass schedule: The top four teams come from the NFC South. Outside of Tampa Bay (1st), none of the teams from this division ranked better than 17th (Carolina) in pass defense. Furthermore, opponents from the NFC North had one team (Green Bay) in the top 12 against the pass in 2007. This is good news for No. 2 fantasy quarterback Jeff Garcia and helps the stock of Joey Galloway and sleeper Antonio Bryant.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

2. Carolina Panthers
339 points
Atlanta (2), Arizona, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans (2), N.Y. Giants, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay (2) The Panthers have done a lot to improve their offense this offseason, adding D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad to a core of wide receivers that includes Steve Smith. Reports on Jake Delhomme's recovery from elbow surgery have been positive, so he could be a nice late-round value based on starts against Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota and New Orleans. None of those teams ranked higher than 23rd last season. These little factoids will improve the value of Delhomme, Smith and Hackett, who is a definite sleeper.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

3. Atlanta Falcons
327 points
Carolina (2), Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans (2), Philadelphia, St. Louis, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay (2) A favorable pass schedule is almost lost on the Falcons, as Chris Redman and Matt Ryan will be left undrafted in most formats. However, the eventual starter could become a viable matchup option against the likes of Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans and St. Louis. The player that sees the greatest increase in value is Roddy White, who broke out with 83 receptions, 1,202 yards and six touchdowns last season. It could also mean a small increase in the stock of Laurent Robinson, who should have a chance to start.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

4. New Orleans Saints
312 points
Atlanta (2), Carolina (2), Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa Bay (2), Washington With games against Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota and San Francisco on the schedule, Drew Brees has more than his share of favorable matchups to exploit and will no doubt be one of the first five quarterbacks taken in drafts. The schedule is also favorable for Marques Colston, who will continue to be seen as a No. 1 fantasy wideout, and Jeremy Shockey has added draft value. Reggie Bush, who has averaged 80.5 receptions in his first two NFL seasons, should also benefit.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

5. Chicago Bears
312 points
Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee The Bears are a team without an offensive identity, as questions persist at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. While opponents like Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans and St. Louis are favorable, it won't make Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman much more valuable in drafts. It does boost the potential stock of wideouts like Marty Booker, Devin Hester and Mark Bradley, however, and Greg Olsen could now emerge as a No. 1 fantasy tight end based on his own skills and a soft schedule.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

6. Washington Redskins
308 points
Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas (2), Detroit, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants (2), Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle Jason Campbell has to learn another offense, this one under new head coach Jim Zorn, so it helps that he has one of the more favorable pass schedules in the NFL. He faces Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, New Orleans, St. Louis and San Francisco -- none of these defenses finished better than 20th last season -- so Campbell could find at least some success. Santana Moss and No. 1 fantasy tight end Chris Cooley should also benefit in the stat sheets.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

7. New York Giants
306 points
Arizona, Baltimore, Carolina, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas (2), Minnesota, Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington (2) The value of Eli Manning increased after an impressive postseason capped by a Super Bowl XLII championship, so the fact that he faces a favorable schedule will make owners swoon. He'll start against Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minnesota, St. Louis and San Francisco, none of which finished better than 20th in pass defense. This is also positive news for Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, who'll look to rebound from a mediocre season.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

8. Detroit Lions
303 points
Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Washington The fact that the Lions have an attractive pass schedule would have meant more in recent seasons, but this offense is now led by Jim Colletto, not Mike Martz. Colletto plans to run a more balanced offense, and reports indicate Jon Kitna isn't a lock to finish the season as the No. 1 quarterback with Drew Stanton in the mix. Still, contests against Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans and San Francisco are favorable for Kitna, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

9. Green Bay Packers
303 points
Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago (2), Dallas, Detroit (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Tennessee The Packers have one of the easiest pass schedules in the league, which is an advantage for Aaron Rodgers in his first season as the team's No. 1 quarterback, as he'll face Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and New Orleans. While it's hard to expect the same sort of production that owners were used to with Brett Favre, Rodgers can be a viable No. 2 fantasy quarterback if he avoids injuries. The value of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Donald Lee should also benefit from the ease of schedule.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

10. San Francisco 49ers
303 points
Arizona (2), Buffalo, Dallas, Detroit, Miami, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, St. Louis (2), Seattle (2), Washington The presence of Mike Martz does improve the stock of San Francisco's skill position players, but it will take more than Martz and a favorable pass schedule to move J.T. O'Sullivan, Isaac Bruce or Bryant Johnson into the next tier at their positions. Alex Smith has failed to live up to expectations and could lose his starting role, while Bruce and Johnson won't thrive if the quarterbacks don't improve. Vernon Davis will be a fantasy starter, but he could be hurt if O'Sullivan or Smith falter.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

11. Minnesota Vikings
302 points
Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago (2), Detroit (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Tampa Bay, Tennessee The Vikings are one of several teams in our top 10 that didn't have much of a pass attack last season, but their schedule features favorable matchups against Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston and New Orleans. While the offense will remain based on Adrian Peterson and the run, head coach Brad Childress must establish the pass in 2008. Tarvaris Jackson should still be seen as little more than a fantasy reserve, but Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice could post some nice stat lines against weaker opponents.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

12. Indianapolis Colts
295 points
Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston (2), Jacksonville (2), Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tennessee (2) Tom Brady will be the first quarterback selection in most drafts after his sensational 2007 season, but Manning's immense value and a favorable schedule puts him behind Brady but ahead of Tony Romo at the position. Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota could all be overmatched by Manning and the Colts, whose offense should remain explosive. This is also positive news for Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark, all of whom will benefit from Manning's skills and rocket arm.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

13. St. Louis Rams
294 points
Arizona (2), Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, New England, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco (2), Philadelphia, Seattle (2), Washington Marc Bulger might have been a disappointment for owners last season, but he could turn into a nice draft value in 2008. The veteran is back to 100 percent and should benefit from the presence of Al Saunders, who takes over as the Rams' new offensive coordinator. Furthermore, starts against Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago and San Francisco are favorable for Bulger's chances at statistical success. Torry Holt will also benefit from starts against lesser opponents, but Drew Bennett will remain a late-round reserve in larger drafts.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

14. Philadelphia Eagles
293 points
Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas (2), N.Y. Giants (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington (2) Donovan McNabb finished last season on a high note, and favorable matchups against Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Chicago, Cincinnati, St. Louis and San Francisco could bode well for his chances to continue that success. These contests also benefit Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown and L.J. Smith, all of whom will be McNabb's top options in the pass attack in 2008. Brian Westbrook, who has to be considered the most versatile back in the NFL, will be even more attractive as a high-end first-round selection in drafts.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

15. Jacksonville Jaguars
285 points
Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston (2), Indianapolis (2), Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tennessee (2) The Jaguars signed David Garrard to a six-year contract extension this offseason, and he should reward them with some tremendous numbers against Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota. Garrard was able to produce solid stat lines regardless of the opponent for much of last season, so the fact that he has some positive matchups makes him a solid breakout candidate. The pass schedule also improves the value of Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

16. Arizona Cardinals
279 points
Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Miami, Minnesota, New England, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, St. Louis (2), San Francisco (2), Seattle (2), Washington There are a lot of questions about the Cardinals' pass attack for the 2008 season under Matt Leinart, who seems to receive more bad press about his off-field behavior than positive reports as a quarterback. Leinart will have a middle-of-the-road pass schedule based on our research, but he does face favorable opponents like Minnesota, St. Louis and San Francisco. Regardless of the season's slate, Leinart's success or failure will have much to do with how well Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald perform in the stat sheets.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

17. Tennessee Titans
273 points
Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston (2), Indianapolis (2), Jacksonville (2), Kansas City, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh The Titans didn't have much of a pass attack last season, as Vince Young threw nine touchdowns and struggled under center. While he will face lesser pass defenses like Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota, Young also faces six starts against teams that ranked in the top 12 against the pass in 2007. The presence of new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger and addition of Alge Crumpler are positive moves, but Young's pass schedule won't increase or decrease his stock in drafts.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

18. Pittsburgh Steelers
270 points
Baltimore (2), Cincinnati (2), Cleveland (2), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, San Diego, Tennessee, Washington Ben Roethlisberger exploded last season with career bests in total touchdowns (34), passer rating (104.1) and rushing yards (204), so his value is at an all-time high. While none of his three intra-division opponents (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland) finished higher than 20th last season, Big Ben will face four teams that finished in the top 11 in Indianapolis, New England, Tennessee and the Giants. Overall, Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward will see little change in value based on the team's overall schedule.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

19. Dallas Cowboys
266 points
Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, N.Y. Giants (2), Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington (2) Tony Romo will be one of the first quarterbacks selected in all drafts, but he will have some tough matchups against Green Bay, the Giants, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. However, Romo had some of his best numbers of last season against hardened pass defenses, so our research might do little more than keep him behind Peyton Manning among quarterbacks. Four starts against the AFC North, which outside of the Steelers couldn't stop the pass in 2007, bodes well for Romo, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

20. Seattle Seahawks
261 points
Arizona (2), Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, Miami, New England, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, St. Louis (2), San Francisco (2), Tampa Bay, Washington Matt Hasselbeck has lost D.J. Hackett and could be without Deion Branch for part of this season. What's more, the Seahawks focused more attention on the run this offseason with the additions of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett to a backfield that also fields veteran runner Maurice Morris. With fewer weapons in the current pass attack and a schedule that includes games against tough pass defenses like Green Bay, Miami, New England, the Jets, the Giants and Tampa Bay, Hasselbeck could struggle to reach his 2007 totals.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

21. Miami Dolphins
258 points
Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo (2), Denver, Houston, Kansas City, New England (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle Few teams have a less attractive pass attack than Miami, but the addition of Chad Pennington is a definite upgrade over John Beck and Josh McCown. He won't have a ton of reliable wideouts, however, and matchups against Denver, Kansas City, New England, the Jets, Oakland and San Diego could mean some porous stat lines. These opponents also don't bode well for the values of Ted Ginn Jr., who might be the lone draftable wide receiver on the roster.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

22. Cleveland Browns
244 points
Baltimore (2), Buffalo, Cincinnati (2), Dallas, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee, Washington The Browns should have one of the better pass attacks in the NFL this season, as Derek Anderson will now have Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Donté Stallworth at his disposal. The one disadvantage is that outside of Buffalo, Houston, Baltimore and Cincinnati, he'll have eight starts against teams that finished in the upper half of the league against the pass in 2007. While several of Cleveland's offensive skill position players will be valuable, Anderson might be inconsistent.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

23. Houston Texans
241 points
Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Indianapolis (2), Jacksonville (2), Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee (2) Matt Schaub has the potential to become a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but he'll face a difficult slate in 2008. The Virginia product will be under center 10 times against teams that finished 15th or better against the pass in 2007, and he'll do it with what could be a questionable running game. Schaub does have a major asset in Andre Johnson, who projects to be a top fantasy wideout, but he might not be consistent enough to warrant more than a middle- to late-round selection.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

24. New York Jets
239 points
Arizona, Buffalo (2), Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, Miami (2), New England (2), Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, Tennessee Brett Favre is the new starting quarterback for the Men in Green, but he could struggle to make a significant impact. The Jets face eight games against teams that finished in the top 10 in pass defense last season, not to mention a total of four against AFC East rivals Miami (4th) and New England (6th). There are some favorable matchups, none more than contests against Arizona, Buffalo and Cincinnati, but overall Favre and the Jets' receivers could be somewhat unreliable in 2008.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

25. Baltimore Ravens
228 points
Cincinnati (2), Cleveland (2), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Miami, N.Y. Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee, Washington Kyle Boller is the current favorite to start, but Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco will be in the mix as well. Whoever wins the prominent role will have to face one of the league's harder pass schedules. Baltimore faces a few intra-division softies in Cincinnati and Cleveland, but nine of the team's 16 contests come against teams that finished 15th or better against the pass in 2007. This won't hurt the stock of Todd Heap, but it could hinder the value of Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

26. Cincinnati Bengals
218 points
Baltimore (2), Cleveland (2), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee, Washington There aren't many teams with a trio like Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so a difficult slate of games won't hurt their stock. However, it should be noted that the Bengals face nine games against teams that finished 16th or better against the pass last season. That includes Indianapolis, Miami, the Giants, Oakland, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, all of which finished in the top 10. Palmer, Johnson and Houshmandzadeh will fatten their numbers against bad teams, however, so all three will remain prominent.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

27. Oakland Raiders
216 points
Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Denver (2), Houston, Kansas City (2), Miami, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, San Diego (2), Tampa Bay The Raiders did improve their pass attack this offseason with the additions of veteran wide receivers Javon Walker and Drew Carter, but it could be too much to ask for the inexperienced JaMarcus Russell to produce consistent stat lines. Two of his three AFC West opponents (Denver, Kansas City) finished in the top seven against the pass last season. Overall, Russell and his receivers will hit the field for 10 games against defenses that finished 15th or better against the pass in 2007.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

28. New England Patriots
214 points
Arizona, Buffalo (2), Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Oakland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle While it's true our research found that the Patriots face one of the most difficult pass schedules in the entire league this season, it won't be enough to keep Tom Brady and Randy Moss out of the first and second rounds of all fantasy football drafts. However, we should still note that the P-Men face 10 contests against teams that finished 15th or better against the pass last season. While neither has a chance to duplicate their incredible, record-breaking 2007 totals, Brady and Moss are all but exempt from the impact of difficult schedules.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

29. Kansas City Chiefs
213 points
Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver (2), Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans, Oakland (2), San Diego (2), Tampa Bay, Tennessee Brodie Croyle won't strike fear into NFL defenses, so the fact that he faces the fourth-hardest pass schedule makes him even less attractive. The Chiefs will have six games in their own division against teams that ranked 14th or better against the pass last season, and games against the likes of New England, the Jets, Tampa Bay and Tennessee will be a detriment to Croyle's numbers. These matchups could also hurt Dwayne Bowe, who will face tough pass defenses with solid No. 1 cornerbacks quite a bit in his second season.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

30. Buffalo Bills
202 points
Arizona, Cleveland, Denver, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami (2), New England (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle The Bills offense will be built around Marshawn Lynch and the run this season, but the passing game could struggle to complement him based on a schedule that includes nine games against top-10 pass defenses from 2007. While Trent Edwards and Lee Evans might find some success against Arizona, Cleveland, St. Louis and San Francisco, the negative matchups far outweigh the positive ones. These numbers won't devastate Edwards, who won't be taken in a lot of drafts, but it could mean another inconsistent season from Evans.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

31. Denver Broncos
189 points
Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City (2), Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans, Oakland (2), San Diego (2), Tampa Bay Jay Cutler will be seen as a potential breakout candidate, but he has the second-hardest pass schedule in the league. He will face eight contests against teams that finished ninth or better against the pass last season, not to mention 11 games against pass defenses that ranked no worse than 15th. Brandon Marshall, who will return from a surgical procedure to repair his forearm, will remain a No. 1 or 2 fantasy wideout but could have some rough weeks based on the difficult schedule and the lack of a solid complement.


Team 2008 opponents Fantasy impact

32. San Diego Chargers
164 points
Atlanta, Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver (2), Indianapolis, Kansas City (2), Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans, Oakland (2), Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay Philip Rivers showed a lot of touhgness in the 2007 postseason, as he battled a torn ACL to lead the Chargers into the AFC Championship Game. He faces another challenge headed into this season, however, as Rivers faces the hardest pass schedule in the NFL. The Bolts have an incredible 12 games against teams that ranked in the top 10 against the pass last season, so Rivers has his work cut out for him. The same holds true for Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, not to mention stud tight end Antonio Gates.

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