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2017 Home/Road fantasy points allowed splits

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Fantasy football has become a statistical world of intelligent analytics, tape evaluation, and player analysis. Anything and everything is broken down to its foundation in an effort to find some sort of edge in predicting future events on the gridiron. But sometimes, analysis at its simplest form can be just as useful as the most in-depth analytical research.

Case in point ... one of the more popular tools in determining a player's week-to-week matchup value is called fantasy points against or FPA. It's a simple average of the number of fantasy points a defense has allowed to a particular position heading into a given week. The higher the FPA number, the better chance the player might have of scoring oodles of points for your fantasy squad. However, making a decision based on an overall FPA total might not be the best form of analysis.

If you want to go even deeper (which of course, we do), fantasy points against needs to be broken down into how a team performs both at home and on the road. Skeptics would argue that the sample size is too small, and that total FPA is a far better gauge. But using a combination of the two, in fact, will allow fantasy fans the clearest look at the matchups.

A perfect example of how home and road data can be very useful is the 2018 Green Bay Packers. Their defense allowed an average of 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season, which was the sixth-most in the league. That makes any field general facing them a favorable start, right? Well, maybe not ... at least not if you look at the splits.

In their eight road games, Green Bay allowed an average of 22.5 fantasy points to quarterbacks. That was the most in the entire NFL. But this unit drew some sort of inspiration from the fans at Lambeau Field, as opposing signal-callers averaged just 13.51 points against them at home. So while a home quarterback facing the Packers was a great matchup, the opposite was true when a field general traveled to the frozen tundra. This isn't the lone example of how home and road FPA can be a better indication of the matchups, either. You'll see that below in our positional look at the splits from 2017.

Since most defenses typically perform better on their home field, I calculated a difference by subtracting the home FPA totals from the road FPA totals. While the difference was negligible in some cases, we also saw some major swings in the value of a defensive unit and how they should have been viewed when you're setting your fantasy football lineups.

Note: FPA is calculated based on PPR scoring for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

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Quarterbacks


1. Green Bay Packers (Home: 13.5 | Road: 22.5 | Diff: +8.99)
2. Washington Redskins (Home: 10.9 | Road: 19.4 | Diff: +8.48)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (Home: 14.0 | Road: 19.9 | Diff: +5.97)
4. Houston Texans (Home: 15.7 | Road: 21.3 | Diff: +5.52)
5. Miami Dolphins (Home: 14.2 | Road: 19.2 | Diff: +5.09)
6. Atlanta Falcons (Home: 14.3 | Road: 19.2 | Diff: +4.87)
7. Minnesota Vikings (Home: 9.5 | Road: 13.9 | Diff: +4.32)
8. Denver Broncos (Home: 13.2 | Road: 17.1 | Diff: +3.91)
9. Los Angeles Rams (Home: 11.9 | Road: 15.6 | Diff: +3.75)
10. Buffalo Bills (Home: 11.0 | Road: 14.8 | Diff: +3.73)
11. Arizona Cardinals (Home: 14.9 | Road: 18.6 | Diff: +3.70)
12. Philadelphia Eagles (Home: 12.9 | Road: 16.5 | Diff: +3.60)
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home: 15.0 | Road: 18.2 | Diff: +3.15)
14. Oakland Raiders (Home: 16.2 | Road: 18.2 | Diff: +2.00)
15. Chicago Bears (Home: 12.2 | Road: 14.2 | Diff: +1.98)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (Home: 11.5 | Road: 13.0 | Diff: +1.51)
17. Baltimore Ravens (Home: 10.2 | Road: 11.7 | Diff: +1.50)
18. Cleveland Browns (Home: 17.5 | Road: 18.9 | Diff: +1.50)
19. Cincinnati Bengals (Home: 15.0 | Road: 15.9 | Diff: +0.94)
20. Indianapolis Colts (Home: 16.5 | Road: 17.4 | Diff: +0.86)
21. Seattle Seahawks (Home: 13.2 | Road: 12.9 | Diff: -0.26)
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home: 10.7 | Road: 10.1 | Diff: -0.59)
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (Home: 14.3 | Road: 13.4 | Diff: -0.83)
24. New England Patriots (Home: 17.9 | Road: 16.9 | Diff: -0.93)
25. New York Jets (Home: 19.1 | Road: 17.6 | Diff: -1.51)
26. New York Giants (Home: 19.5 | Road: 17.8 | Diff: -1.72)
27. Tennessee Titans (Home: 17.6 | Road: 14.5 | Diff: -3.09)
28. Detroit Lions (Home: 16.8 | Road: 17.1 | Diff: -3.20)
29. Dallas Cowboys (Home: 17.9 | Road: 14.7 | Diff: -3.22)
30. New Orleans Saints (Home: 17.3 | Road: 14.0 | Diff: -3.27)
31. San Francisco 49ers (Home: 20.4 | Road: 16.3 | Diff: -4.14)
32. Carolina Panthers (Home: 17.5 | Road: 13.1 | Diff: -4.39)

Notes: The Packers (+8.99) and Redskins (+8.48) were both far more effective at home than on the road. A total of 13 defenses allowed at least 3.15 more fantasy points on the road than at home, while another 13 defenses were within two points of their home and road FPA numbers. Six defenses (18.5 percent) were at least 3.09 points worse on their home field. The Panthers (-4.39) and 49ers (-4.14) were the most vulnerable defenses to quarterbacks on their home fields.

Running backs


1. Chicago Bears (Home: 22.9 | Road: 22.8 | Diff: +12.44)
2. Atlanta Falcons (Home: 21.2 | Road: 24.9 | Diff: +7.98)
3. Cleveland Browns (Home: 22.0 | Road: 24.8 | Diff: +6.51)
4. Buffalo Bills (Home: 30.2 | Road: 26.1 | Diff: +6.48)
5. Carolina Panthers (Home: 16.5 | Road: 24.5 | Diff: +6.06)
6. Baltimore Ravens (Home: 22.9 | Road: 25.4 | Diff: +5.62)
7. Arizona Cardinals (Home: 18.4 | Road: 24.4 | Diff: +5.15)
8. Los Angeles Rams (Home: 24.6 | Road: 27.6 | Diff: +4.09)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (Home: 26.8 | Road: 26.6 | Diff: +3.99)
10. Green Bay Packers (Home: 23.8 | Road: 26.2 | Diff: +3.92)
11. New York Giants (Home: 25.4 | Road: 234 | Diff: +3.89)
12. Houston Texans (Home: 21.3 | Road: 22.3 | Diff: +3.77)
13. Denver Broncos (Home: 19.2 | Road: 23.2 | Diff: +3.56)
14. New York Jets (Home: 18.7 | Road: 31.1 | Diff: +2.96)
15. Detroit Lions (Home: 24.6 | Road: 28.5 | Diff: +2.85)
16. New Orleans Saints (Home: 26.1 | Road: 20.2 | Diff: +2.78)
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home: 19.5 | Road: 26.0 | Diff: +2.46)
18. Miami Dolphins (Home: 24.4 | Road: 27.2 | Diff: +2.39)
19. Los Angeles Chargers (Home: 22.4 | Road: 26.2 | Diff: +2.16)
20. Dallas Cowboys (Home: 25.4 | Road: 21.8 | Diff: +1.03)
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (Home: 26.4 | Road: 20.7 | Diff: +0.72)
22. Indianapolis Colts (Home: 23.4 | Road: 25.6 | Diff: -0.08)
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home: 25.8 | Road: 26.5 | Diff: -0.17)
24. Minnesota Vikings (Home: 14.9 | Road: 20.1 | Diff: -1.03)
25. Kansas City Chiefs (Home: 18.2 | Road: 24.6 | Diff: -1.60)
26. Philadelphia Eagles (Home: 16.6 | Road: 22.3 | Diff: -2.04)
27. Washington Redskins (Home: 23.7 | Road: 27.8 | Diff: -4.15)
28. Oakland Raiders (Home: 22.1 | Road: 26.0 | Diff: -4.51)
29. New England Patriots (Home: 23.9 | Road: 22.9 | Diff: -4.74)
30. Tennessee Titans (Home: 25.8 | Road: 20.7 | Diff: -5.31)
31. Seattle Seahawks (Home: 24.2 | Road: 19.5 | Diff: -5.63)
32. San Francisco 49ers (Home: 28.4 | Road: 23.1 | Diff: -5.92)

Notes: The Bears surrendered the most PPR points a game to running backs on the road (31.1) a season ago, but the same unit surrendered the sixth-fewest to the position at Solider Field (18.66). That's a huge difference. Seven other defenses allowed at least 5.15 more points on the road than at home, including the Falcons (+7.98) and Browns (+6.51). So, a quarter of teams in the league were significantly better at home against running backs. A total of 13 teams were within a three-point difference between their home and road splits. Six defenses surrendered at least 4.15 more PPR points per contest to opposing runners on their home field, including the 49ers (-5.92), Seahawks (-5.63) and Titans (-5.31).

Wide receivers


1. Kansas City Chiefs (Home: 31.0 | Road: 43.8 | Diff: +12.75)
2. Houston Texans (Home: 28.5 | Road: 39.8 | Diff: +11.29)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (Home: 20.8 | Road: 32.0 | Diff: +11.24)
4. Green Bay Packers (Home: 31.6 | Road: 40.2 | Diff: +8.52)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home: 34.7 | Road: 42.2 | Diff: +7.32)
6. Arizona Cardinals (Home: 27.8 | Road: 34.9 | Diff: +7.17)
7. Buffalo Bills (Home: 26.1 | Road: 32.9 | Diff: +6.83)
T-8. Chicago Bears (Home: 28.1 | Road: 34.6 | Diff: +6.48)
T-8. Miami Dolphins (Home: 23.0 | Road: 29.5 | Diff: +6.48)
10. Washington Redskins (Home: 24.4 | Road: 29.9 | Diff: +5.52)
11. Philadelphia Eagles (Home: 30.7 | Road: 35.6 | Diff: +4.89)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (Home: 26.2 | Road: 31.0 | Diff: +4.83)
13. New York Giants (Home: 30.7 | Road: 35.4 | Diff: +4.69)
14. Cleveland Browns (Home: 29.4 | Road: 33.9 | Diff: +4.46)
15. New England Patriots (Home: 33.8 | Road: 37.6 | Diff: +3.84)
16. Los Angeles Rams (Home: 27.4 | Road: 31.1 | Diff: +3.67)
17. New Orleans Saints (Home: 31.0 | Road: 34.6 | Diff: +3.65)
18. New York Jets (Home: 32.1 | Road: 34.2 | Diff: +2.11)
19. Indianapolis Colts (Home: 32.1 | Road: 34.0 | Diff: +1.95)
20. Baltimore Ravens (Home: 26.1 | Road: 28.0 | Diff: +1.94)
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (Home: 28.5 | Road: 28.9 | Diff: +0.60)
22. Oakland Raiders (Home: 31.2 | Road: 30.8 | Diff: -0.44)
23. Dallas Cowboys (Home: 34.1 | Road: 33.4 | Diff: -0.61)
24. Seattle Seahawks (Home: 32.7 | Road: 31.9 | Diff: -0.72)
25. Tennessee Titans (Home: 34.9 | Road: 32.6 | Diff: -0.76)
26. Atlanta Falcons (Home: 30.6 | Road: 29.8 | Diff: -0.78)
27. Denver Broncos (Home: 26.6 | Road: 25.5 | Diff: -1.04)
28. San Francisco 49ers (Home: 33.3 | Road: 31.9 | Diff: -1.28)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home: 24.3 | Road: 22.6 | Diff: -1.65)
30. Minnesota Vikings (Home: 30.6 | Road: 27.4 | Diff: -3.20)
31. Carolina Panthers (Home: 41.2 | Road: 30.9 | Diff: -10.23)
32. Detroit Lions (Home: 37.8 | Road: 26.4 | Diff: -11.27)

Notes: The Chiefs surrendered the most PPR points a game to wide receivers on the road (43.8) a season ago, but the same unit surrendered 12.75 fewer points to the position at Arrowhead Stadium (31.05). That was the largest difference. Eight other defenses allowed at least 6.48 more points on the road than at home, including the Texans (+11.29) and Bengals (+11.24). So, 28.1 percent of teams in the league were far better at home against wide receivers. A total of 12 teams were within a three-point difference between their home and road splits. Just two defenses were far worse on their home fields, as the Lions (-11.27) and Panthers (-10.23) surrendered more PPR points to wideouts on their own turf last season.

Tight ends

1. Washington Redskins (Home: 11.2 | Road: 17.0 | Diff: +5.85)
2. Miami Dolphins (Home: 14.2 | Road: 18.0 | Diff: +3.80)
3. Seattle Seahawks (Home: 8.6 | Road: 11.7 | Diff: +3.15)
4. Detroit Lions (Home: 10.1 | Road: 13.2 | Diff: +3.10)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home: 9.0 | Road: 11.6 | Diff: +2.59)
6. Denver Broncos (Home: 13.5 | Road: 15.9 | Diff: +2.36)
7. Oakland Raiders (Home: 13.3 | Road: 15.3 | Diff: +1.99)
8. Green Bay Packers (Home: 9.0 | Road: 10.7 | Diff: +1.73)
9. Atlanta Falcons (Home: 10.1 | Road: 11.6 | Diff: +1.48)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (Home: 10.5 | Road: 11.7 | Diff: +1.36)
11. Chicago Bears (Home: 9.8 | Road: 11.1 | Diff: +1.33)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (Home: 10.2 | Road: 9.8 | Diff: -0.40)
13. New England Patriots (Home: 11.3 | Road: 10.6 | Diff: -0.70)
14. Indianapolis Colts (Home: 12.4 | Road: 11.6 | Diff: -0.77)
15. Houston Texans (Home: 14.6 | Road: 13.8 | Diff: -0.82)
16. Minnesota Vikings (Home: 11.2 | Road: 8.5 | Diff: -1.07)
T-17. Los Angeles Rams (Home: 12.4 | Road: 11.2 | Diff: -1.22)
T-17. New York Giants (Home: 16.4 | Road: 15.2 | Diff: -1.22)
19. Dallas Cowboys (Home: 12.6 | Road: 11.4 | Diff: -1.24)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (Home: 10.0 | Road: 8.7 | Diff: -1.29)
21. Tennessee Titans (Home: 12.8 | Road: 10.8 | Diff: -2.04)
22. Cincinnati Bengals (Home: 13.8 | Road: 11.7 | Diff: -2.16)
23. Carolina Panthers (Home: 10.7 | Road: 8.6 | Diff: -2.17)
T-24. Arizona Cardinals (Home: 12.5 | Road: 10.2 | Diff: -2.32)
T-24. Baltimore Ravens (Home: 14.2 | Road: 11.9 | Diff: -2.32)
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home: 10.8 | Road: 7.9 | Diff: -2.91)
27. Buffalo Bills (Home: 14.2 | Road: 10.7 | Diff: -3.54)
28. New Orleans Saints (Home: 10.9 | Road: 7.2 | Diff: -3.77)
29. New York Jets (Home: 14.5 | Road: 9.4 | Diff: -5.11)
30. Cleveland Browns (Home: 13.8 | Road: 12.1 | Diff: -5.40)
31. San Francisco 49ers (Home: 14.2 | Road: 8.1 | Diff: -6.10)
32. Kansas City Chiefs (Home: 12.8 | Road: 6.5 | Diff: -6.27)

Notes: The Redskins (+5.85) were more effective at home than on the road, but no other defense had such a major differential against tight ends. In fact, just four defenses allowed 3.1 or more PPR points on the road to the position. A total of 14 teams (43.7 percent) had a differential of fewer than two points in their home/road splits. On the flip side, six teams surrendered at least 3.54 more PPR points to tight ends at home including the Chiefs (-6.27) and 49ers (-6.1).


Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for all of your breaking fantasy football news, updates and analysis!

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