Fabiano's 2017 fantasy football projections: TEs

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Fantasy football analysis continues to develop and evolve as we become more and more advanced. No longer is it limited to a simple look at the rank of defenses against the pass and the run to determine starts or sits, as it was back in the late 1990s. (Wow, that seems like so long ago!) Now in the Information Age, the level of statistical projections, algorithms, metrics and research used to project a player's points and fantasy value are almost on the level of an NFL scout. While some information can be paralysis by analysis, a lot of it is useful in our quest to become champions.

In an effort to be a one-stop shop for the most important information as it pertains to your fantasy draft preparation, here's a look at my tight end projections for the 2017 season. I've also included a few of the more vital team stats from last season, including each team's tight end target and reception totals, the percentage of overall team targets and receptions that went to tight ends, and the percentage of overall team red-zone targets that went to the position. And of course, fantasy points against (strength of schedule) information is also included at the end.

Also included are a few nuggets, tidbits and analysis (for those who might be sick of all the numbers) on the most important fantasy players, in addition to the tendencies and trends of their coaches and coordinators. In some cases, you'll even see a quick historical breakdown of how well players have done (based on points) under the coaches and coordinators who'll be calling their plays in 2017.

With all of this information, you'll be able to enter your fantasy football draft with confidence.

NOTE: The projections for the players are listed twice, once in the image and once in straight text, as the images don't display in some formats.

Arizona Cardinals


Projections
Jermaine Gresham: 43 rec, 413 yards, 3 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 57.3 fantasy points

The Cardinals ranked 27th in tight end targets and 25th in red-zone targets last season. ... Jermaine Gresham led the team in tight end targets with 61, but he was 23rd among all tight ends around the league. He was also tied for just 27th in red-zone targets, so Gresham's opportunities to produce were limited at best. In fact, he's scored a combined three touchdowns in his last 31 contests. ... Over his last seven seasons as either a head coach or offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians hasn't had a single tight end rank higher than 21st in fantasy points (Dwayne Allen, 2012). Furthermore, Arians hasn't had a tight end not named Heath Miller finish better than Allen's 22nd at the position.

Atlanta Falcons


Projections
Austin Hooper: 47 rec, 527 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 82.7 fantasy points

The Falcons finished last season tied for 28th in targets and tied for ninth in red-zone targets among tight ends a season ago. ... Jacob Tamme led the team in tight end targets with a mere 31, and he's no longer on the roster. ... Austin Hooper, who averaged just 1.9 targets per game as a rookie, is a potential fantasy sleeper in the pass attack for new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Tamme did tie for 17th in red-zone targets at the position last season, so Hooper should an increase in opportunities to produce for the Falcons and fantasy fans. He's worth a late-round look as a No. 2 fantasy tight end with upside. ... Levine Toilolo figures to be second on the depth chart.

Baltimore Ravens


Projections
Benjamin Watson: 28 rec, 313 yards, 2 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 43.3 fantasy points

Baltimore was third in tight end targets and tied for third in red-zone chances in 2016. ... Dennis Pitta led the entire team in targets (121), but he's since been released after suffering another hip ailment in the offseason. ... Benjamin Watson, who is coming back from torn Achilles, looks like the projected starter with Maxx Williams and Larry Donnell behind him on the depth chart. None of the three are draftable in fantasy leagues at this point. ... In his last 10 season as an offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg has produced three top-10 performances from tight ends. Those came from L.J. Smith (2006) and Brent Celek (2004, 2011) during his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Buffalo Bills


Projections
Charles Clay: 49 rec, 520 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 76.0 fantasy points

The Bills ranked tied for 21st in targets and tied for 20th in red-zone targets last season. ... Charles Clay led the team in targets (87), due in large part to the fact that Sammy Watkins missed half the year, but he still finished just 18th in fantasy points at the position. While he could have some PPR and matchup-based appeal this season, Clay is still worth no more than a late-round flier in drafts. ... In nine seasons as an offensive coordinator, Rick Dennison has had two tight ends (Tony Scheffler - 2007, Owen Daniels - 2012) finish in the top 10 in fantasy points. However, just one of his tight ends have finished better than 17th in fantasy points in his last six years in Houston and Denver.

Carolina Panthers


Projections
Greg Olsen: 74 rec, 1,021 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 132.1 fantasy points

The Panthers finished tied for sixth in tight end targets and 12th in red-zone targets a season ago. ... Greg Olsen, who led the team in targets for the third time in the last four years, has averaged 80 catches for 1,062 yards and five touchdowns since 2014. He also leads all tight ends in targets (376), receptions (241) and yards (3,185) in that time. ... Olsen's 129 targets from last season were a career best. ... He has played in all 16 games in each of the last nine seasons between Chicago and Carolina. Since 2012, the Miami (FL) product has finished eighth or better in fantasy points at the position in each season. He'll be the second or third tight end selected in most 2017 drafts.

Chicago Bears


Projections
Zach Miller: 41 rec, 423 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 66.2 fantasy points
Dion Sims: 19 rec, 154 yards, 1 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 21.4 fantasy points

Chicago was 25th in targets and tied for 22nd in red-zone chances among tight ends in 2016. ... Zach Miller was on pace to finish with 75 catches, 778 yards and six touchdowns before going down with an injured foot. The Bears added Dion Sims and rookie Adam Shaheen in the offseason, so Miller is now no lock for a roster spot. At best, he'll be worth a late-round flier in an offense that likes to use the tight end. ... In his three seasons as an offensive coordinator, Dowell Loggains has produced a pair of top-20 fantasy tight ends in Jared Cook (2012) and Delanie Walker (2013). Had Miller not missed time, he was projected to finish with 116 points - that would have been good for fifth among tight ends.

Cincinnati Bengals


Projections
Tyler Eifert: 54 rec, 668 yards, 7 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 108.8 fantasy points

The Bengals ranked 24th in tight end targets and were tied for 19th in red-zone targets in their first season under offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. ... Tyler Eifert led the team's tight ends in targets (47), but he missed half of the season due to injuries. He has now missed more games (26) over the last three years than he's been active for (22), which is a major cause for concern for fantasy owners. His statistical upside is huge, however, as Eifert would have projected for 92 targets, 62 catches, 769 yards and 14 touchdowns over 16 games based on the totals he produced in the last two seasons. He'll be worth a roll of the dice in the middle to late rounds, but there's a lot of risk involved.

Cleveland Browns


Projections
David Njoku: 45 rec, 459 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 67.9 fantasy points

The Browns ranked 23rd in targets and 29th in red-zone targets among tight ends last season, which is no surprise when you consider the decline in Gary Barnidge's numbers. ... With Barnidge now off the roster, David Njoku projects as the new starter. Rookie tight ends rarely make an immediate fantasy impact, however, so the Miami (FL) product won't be worth more than a late flier in seasonal formats. ... In six seasons as either an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson has produced a pair of top-10 fantasy tight ends (Eifert - 2015, Zach Miller - 2010). ... The Browns have had a pair of top-10 tight ends (Barnidge - 2015, Jordan Cameron - 2013) in the last four seasons.

Dallas Cowboys


Projections
Jason Witten: 62 rec, 617 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 91.7 fantasy points

Dallas was tied for 18th in tight end targets and tied for 13th in red-zone chances a season ago. ... Jason Witten finished 14th in fantasy points among tight ends and has experienced a down tick in targets in recent seasons. In fact, he's averaged 96 targets over the last three years after averaging 127 in his previous seven seasons. Witten is now worth no more than a late-round flier in drafts. ... In his 15 seasons as an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan has produced just four top-10 fantasy tight ends. Those include Jim Kleinsasser (2003), Jermaine Wiggins (2004), Randy McMichael (2005) and Witten (2014). However, he's had just one top-10 tight end since 2006.

Denver Broncos


Projections
A.J. Derby: 31 rec, 274 yards, 3 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 39.4 fantasy points
Virgil Green: 18 rec, 163 yards, 1 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 22.3 fantasy points

The Broncos finished tied for 28th in targets and 31st in red-zone targets among tight ends in 2016. ... Virgil Green was fourth on the team in targets, but he saw a mere 37 and was targeted in the red zone four times. A better blocker than pass catcher, he won't make an impact in fantasy leagues. ... A.J. Derby could be a player to watch, as new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy likes to use his tight ends in the red zone. However, Derby isn't a draftable asset at this point. ... In four seasons as the head coach in San Diego, McCoy's tight ends combined to score 45 touchdowns (11.2 per season). That includes Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, who scored a total of 15 times just last season.

Detroit Lions


Projections
Eric Ebron: 66 rec, 724 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 98.2 fantasy points

The Lions ranked 26th in tight end targets and 30th in red-zone targets last season. ... Eric Ebron ranked fourth on the team with a career-high in targets (85), and he recorded personal bests in receptions (61), yards (711) and yards per catch (11.7). His one touchdown catch caused him to fall to 15th in fantasy points at the position, however. ... The departure of Anquan Boldin (95 targets) should mean a bigger target share is ahead for Ebron, who will also see a portion of the 23 red-zone opportunities that the veteran left behind. For fantasy fans who like to wait on the tight end position, Ebron is a perfect target. He's on the verge of what could be a top-10 tight end campaign.

Green Bay Packers


Projections
Martellus Bennett: 58 rec, 628 yards, 6 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 98.8 fantasy points

Green Bay was tied for 21st in targets and tied for 18th in red-zone chances among tight ends a season ago. ... Jared Cook was fifth in targets (51) on a team that saw three wideouts (Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb) and a converted wideout (Ty Montgomery) finish in the top four. With Cook no longer on the roster, Martellus Bennett becomes the top option at the position for Aaron Rodgers. While Cook's target total wasn't impressive, he did average 5.1 looks per game and was also among the league leaders in target rate per snap (15.5 percent). ... Even in a crowded pass attack, Bennett should still see 70-plus targets and has the potential to be a top-10 option.

Houston Texans


Projections
C.J. Fiedorowicz: 48 rec, 517 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 75.7 fantasy points
Ryan Griffin: 28 rec, 310 yards, 2 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 43.0 fantasy points

The Texans finished second in tight end targets and eighth in red-zone targets in 2016, as C.J. Fiedorowicz (89) and Ryan Griffin (74) ranked third and fourth on the team respectively. The duo also combined for 20 red-zone targets, with Fiedorowicz the leader (12) at the position. ... Fiedorowicz finished 10th among all tight ends in targets, and he averaged seven targets in the three games that Tom Savage led the Texans in pass attempts. Overall, the veteran was targeted seven or more times in nine of his final 11 contests. However, his 46 yards-per-game average and three scores in that time left much to be desired. ... Fiedorowicz is a draftable asset, but he's just a No. 2 fantasy option.

Indianapolis Colts


Projections
Jack Doyle: 55 rec, 587 yards, 6 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 94.7 fantasy points
Erik Swoope: 26 rec, 309 yards, 2 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 40.9 fantasy points

The Colts ranked tied for sixth in targets and tied for sixth in red-zone chances last season, so it's evident that offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski likes to use the position. ... As the tight ends coach in San Diego, Chudzinski helped Gates to four top-10 finishes including two top-threes and a pair of seasons at No. 1. As a coordinator or head coach, Chudzinski led Kellen Winslow Jr. (2007) and Jordan Cameron (2013) to fourth-place finishes among tight ends based on fantasy points. Winslow was also on pace to be a top-10 tight end in 2008, but he missed six games due to injuries. ... This is all good news for Jack Doyle, who will be a popular breakout candidate in all fantasy drafts.

Jacksonville Jaguars


Projections
Marcedes Lewis: 24 rec, 239 yards, 2 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 35.9 fantasy points

Jacksonville was tied for 10th in tight end targets and tied for 22nd in red-zone targets a season ago. ... Julius Thomas was just fifth in targets (51) on the team, but he missed seven games and is no longer on the roster. ... The current depth chart sees Marcedes Lewis and Mychal Rivera as the top options at the position, but neither is worth a look in fantasy drafts. Since scoring 10 touchdowns in 2010, Lewis has scored a combined 11 times in his last six seasons. ... Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has served that role for three seasons between Buffalo and Jacksonville. In that time, he's never had a tight end rank better than 19th in fantasy points (Scott Chandler - 2013).

Kansas City Chiefs


Projections
Travis Kelce: 78 rec, 1,004 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 134.4 fantasy points

The Chiefs finished fourth in targets and tied for third in red-zone opportunities among tight ends, which is a surprise to no one when you consider that Travis Kelce had a career season. He led the offense in targets (117), receptions (85) and receiving yards (1,125), and finished second on the team in touchdown catches (4) and first in fantasy points at the position. While he warrants a top-four rank among tight ends in drafts, Kelce could be hard pressed to repeat his overall totals. During a six-game stretch, he recorded 100-plus yards five times and averaged seven receptions for 108 yards. In his previous nine games, Kelce averaged a far less impressive five catches for 52 yards.

Los Angeles Chargers


Projections
Hunter Henry: 56 rec, 595 yards, 6 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 95.5 fantasy points
Antonio Gates: 45 rec, 502 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 80.2 fantasy points

The Chargers ranked tied for eighth in tight end targets and were first in red-zone targets in 2016. Those totals were due to the success of Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, who combined for 39 red-zone looks and 15 touchdown catches. Henry is projected to see a bigger role in offense this season, however, so he's the tight end to target of the duo. ... Before his tenures as an offensive coordinator and head coach, Ken Whisenhunt was a tight ends coach for the Ravens (1998-1998), Jets (2000) and Steelers (2001-2003). While his tight ends had minimal success in Arizona, Whisenhunt did help Delanie Walker rank in the top-10 in Tennessee. Henry could be his next star at the position.

Los Angeles Rams


Projections
Tyler Higbee: 32 rec, 298 yards, 3 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 47.8 fantasy points
Gerald Everett: 28 rec, 303 yards, 3 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 46.3 fantasy points

Los Angeles was tied for 14th in targets and 28th in red-zone chances among tight ends last season. ... Lance Kendricks led the team's tight ends in targets (87), but he's no longer on the roster. That leaves the duo of Tyler Higbee and rookie Gerald Everett as the top options for new coach Sean McVay, whose tight ends combined to have the most receiving yards at the position last season in Washington. ... McVay's offense in L.A. might not have Jordan Reed or Vernon Davis, but he will feature the position none the less. That makes both Higbee and Everett worth watching in the preseason, though neither would be worth more than a late flier in fantasy re-drafts.

Miami Dolphins


Projections
Julius Thomas: 44 rec, 498 yards, 6 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 85.8 fantasy points

The Dolphins finished 31st in tight end targets and tied for 26th in red-zone chances a season ago. ... In his three seasons as an offensive coordinator, Adam Gase produced two top-10 fantasy tight ends (Julius Thomas - 2013, 2014) and a third who finished in the top 20 (Zach Miller - 2015). He lacked a pass catcher at the position last season in Miami, but the team added Thomas this offseason. The veteran was touchdown dependent under Gase in Denver, however, as he found the end zone a combined 24 times in 27 games. The fact that he knows the offense and Gase's tendencies in the red zone is a positive, but Thomas has been too prone to injuries to be drafted outside of the late rounds.

Minnesota Vikings


Projections
Kyle Rudolph: 68 rec, 721 yards, 7 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 114.1 fantasy points

The Vikings ranked tied for eighth in targets and second in red-zone targets among tight ends last season, as Kyle Rudolph exploded for career bests in targets (132), receptions (83), yards (840) and touchdowns (seven). His 132 targets led all tight ends, as did his 25 red-zone targets, and his seven scored were tied for third-most. Rudolph might see a slight decline after what was a "magical" season, but he's still a lock No. 1 option in drafts. ... Over his last eight seasons as either a head coach or offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur has produced two top-10 and four top-15 tight ends. Shurmur utilizes the position as his leading tight end averages 111 targets over the last three years.

New England Patriots


Projections
Rob Gronkowski: 75 rec, 1,049 yards, 10 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 164.9 fantasy points
Dwayne Allen: 17 rec, 150 yards, 1 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 21.0 fantasy points

New England was 16th in tight end targets and 17th in red-zone chances a season ago, but those numbers don't reflect what fantasy fans will see with Rob Gronkowski back on the field. In 2015, he led the Patriots in targets (120), receptions (72), receiving yards (1,176) and touchdown catches (11). Over his seven years in the NFL, Gronkowski has averaged 0.77 touchdowns per contest. He's also averaged almost 70 yards per contest in that time. ... Gronkowski has finished first or second in fantasy points among tight ends in each of his last four full seasons, though he's missed eight or more games twice since 2013. While there is risk due to injuries, Gronkowski will be a top-30 choice.

New Orleans Saints


Projections
Coby Fleener: 58 rec, 684 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 96.4 fantasy points

The Saints finished tied for 18th in targets and tied for ninth in red-zone targets among tight ends in 2016. ... Coby Fleener led the team's tight ends with 82 targets and 18 red-zone chances, but he ranked out of the top 10 at the position. Reports that Fleener now has a better understanding of the offense are positive. He could return some value as a late-round flier in fantasy drafts this season. ... In his previous seven seasons as the team's coordinator, Pete Carmichael's offenses produced five top-10 fantasy tight ends including Jimmy Graham (2011-2014) and Watson (2015). Graham finished no worse than third during that time, while Watson was seventh. Fleener finished 12th a season ago.

New York Giants


Projections
Evan Engram: 40 rec, 448 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 68.8 fantasy points

The Giants ranked 17th in tight end targets and tied for 26th in red-zone chances last season. In his first two seasons as the coordinator in New York, Ben McAdoo's offense produced one top-12 fantasy tight end in Larry Donnell (2014). However, Mac's first season as the head coach returned little success at the position. Will Tye, who ranked fourth on the team in targets, finished 34th in fantasy points. ... The G-Men added Evan Engram in the NFL draft, and he projects to start as a rookie. His ceiling could be limited though, as the G-Men boast a trio of talented wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. That makes the Ole Miss product worth a late flier.

New York Jets


Projections
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 38 rec, 395 yards, 3 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 55.5 fantasy points

Gang Green was dead last in the league in targets and 31st in red-zone targets among tight ends a season ago. In short, the team's production at the position was pitiful. ... Austin Seferian-Jenkins led their tight ends with 17 targets, 10 catches and 110 yards. Those were his totals for the entire season. To compare, Kelce had 14 targets, 11 catches and 108 yards in his first two games. While Seferian-Jenkins did show some flashes of potential earlier in his career and the Jets lack for effective pass catchers, but he still isn't a draftable asset in fantasy land. The veteran out of Washington is also suspended for the first two games of the season, which decreases his value further.

Oakland Raiders


Projections
Jared Cook: 42 rec, 451 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 69.1 fantasy points

The Raiders finished tied for 28th in tight end targets and tied for 22nd in red-zone opportunities in 2016, as their leading player at the position (Clive Walford) saw just 3.5 targets a game. ... The Raiders added Jared Cook in the offseason, however, so he projects as the new top option at the position. While he's an upgrade over Walford, Cook is still a No. 2 option in drafts. ... Todd Downing has been promoted to offensive coordinator, but the same system that former coordinator Bill Musgrave left behind will remain mostly intact. That could be bad news for Cook, as Musgrave didn't have a single tight end finish with more than 500 receiving yards in the last six seasons in his system.

Philadelphia Eagles


Projections
Zach Ertz: 64 rec, 769 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 98.9 fantasy points

The Eagles ranked first in targets and tied for third in red-zone targets among tight ends, which helped Zach Ertz have his finest fantasy season. In fact, he ranked fifth in targets (106), receptions (78) and receiving yards (816) to go along with a sixth-place finish in fantasy points at the position. However, Ertz's trend of not producing on a consistent basis until late in the season continued. A total of 51 percent of his receptions, 54 percent of his yards and 75 percent of his touchdown catches came over his last five games. In his previous two seasons, 38 percent of Ertz's targets and 44 percent of both his receptions and yardage came in his last four contests. Those are notable stats.

Pittsburgh Steelers


Projections
Xavier Grimble: 44 rec, 422 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 66.2 fantasy points
Jesse James: 26 rec, 246 yards, 2 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 36.6 fantasy points

Pittsburgh was 12th in tight end targets and 16th in red-zone targets a season ago, but Jesse James was the team's leader in fantasy points at the position -- and he ranked 30th based on fantasy points. The addition of Vance McDonald cancels out what little fantasy appeal James might have had, however, and both players have low ceilings in an offense full of playmakers. ... In his last 10 seasons as either a head coach or offensive coordinator, Todd Haley has produced just one top-10 fantasy tight end (Heath Miller - 2012). His next best performers were Miller (11th, 2014) and Tony Moeaki (20th, 2010), so Haley hasn't had a lot of success at the position during his tenure in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers


Projections
George Kittle: 41 rec, 429 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 60.9 fantasy points

The 49ers finished 20th in targets and tied for 20th in red-zone chances among tight ends in the last season under former head coach Chip Kelly. ... New head man Kyle Shanahan hasn't had a whole lot of success with tight ends in his career as an offensive coordinator, either. In his last six seasons in that role, Shanahan hasn't had a single tight end finish better than 12th in fantasy points. Furthermore, the average finish of his best tight end (based on fantasy points) since 2012 is 30th. That doesn't bode well for the prospects of George Kittle and Garrett Celek, who will be one and two on the team's depth chart. Neither tight end is a draftable asset in 2017 fantasy leagues.

Seattle Seahawks


Projections
Jimmy Graham: 67 rec, 864 yards, 6 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 122.4 fantasy points

The Seahawks ranked tied for 12th in tight end targets and tied for ninth in red-zone targets last season, as Jimmy Graham re-emerged from the shadows to once again become a legitimate fantasy starter. He was seventh in targets (95), eighth in receptions (65), third in yards (923) and tied for third in touchdowns (seven) at the position. Seattle tight ends had scored a mere 22 touchdowns in the previous five seasons under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. ... Graham has now finished in the top 10 in fantasy points in each of his last six full seasons at the NFL level. In 2015, he projected to finish ninth in points at the position based on the statistics from his 11 active contests.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Projections
Cameron Brate: 47 rec, 468 yards, 5 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 76.8 fantasy points
O.J. Howard: 38 rec, 397 yards, 4 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 63.7 fantasy points

Tampa Bay was 14th in targets and tied for sixth in red-zone chances among tight ends in 2016, as Cameron Brate emerged into a legitimate No. 1 fantasy tight end. His 82 targets were third on the team, and his 17 red-zone targets were second on the Buccaneers behind Mike Evans (19) and tied for seventh at the position around the league. The addition of O.J. Howard in the NFL draft appears to be a major road block in Brate's return to being a top-10 option again, however. Neither player is worth more than a late choice in redraft formats. ... Dirk Koetter's top tight end has failed to produce 550 yards and more than two scores five times in his last 10 seasons as a head coach or coordinator.

Tennessee Titans


Projections
Delanie Walker: 62 rec, 766 yards, 6 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 110.6 fantasy points

The Titans finished tied for 10th in tight end targets and tied for 13th in red-zone targets one season ago. ... Delanie Walker ranked sixth in targets (102), ninth in receptions (65), sixth in receiving yards (800), tied for third in touchdowns (seven) and tied for seventh in red-zone targets (17) at the position, but he was down in the first three categories compared to the previous season. With Corey Davis and Eric Decker now added to a pass attack that also includes incumbent wideout Rishard Matthews, fantasy fans have to wonder if Walker's 2016 numbers will serve as his ceiling this season. Regardless, he's still well placed in the No. 1 fantasy tight end conversation heading into drafts.

Washington Redskins


Projections
Jordan Reed: 72 rec, 898 yards, 7 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 129.8 fantasy points
Vernon Davis: 30 rec, 347 yards, 3 TDs, 0 rush yards, 0 rush TDs, 52.7 fantasy points

The Redskins ranked fifth in targets and tied for 13th in red-zone targets among tight ends in 2016. ... Jordan Reed finished fourth in targets (89) on the team overall, but he was first in terms of targets per game (7.4). The problem, which has been a consistent one for Reed at the NFL level, is that he missed four games due to injuries. The veteran has now missed a combined 18 games in four seasons, and he's entering camp on the PUP list with a toe issue. Still, his upside in a pass-laden offense that lost both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon makes him a lock to be one of the first four tight ends taken in all fantasy drafts. Just beware, there is risk with Reed in fantasy drafts.

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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