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Fantasy points per target analysis: Top 30 2016 WRs


Fantasy football is all about points. The more you score, the better chance you have to win.

(It ain't rocket science, folks).

While traditional scoring leader lists offer a look at how well a player did overall during a given season, it doesn't take into effect such factors as games missed and injuries. So, let's take a deeper look into the numbers to see how our heroes performed when the football was in their hands. In the case of the wide receivers, we examined how well players performed on a per target basis with notes on snap percentage as well. This exercise helps us find which wideouts did the most with their opportunities to produce points, and which ones needed lots of chances to be relevant.

Here's a look at your top 30 fantasy wide receivers from last season, ranked based on their fantasy-point-per-target averages (minimum 350 snaps).

1. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (1.66 FPPT): Hill's rank shouldn't be a surprise when you consider his targets (83) to the number of touchdowns he scored (nine) last season. Therein lies the concern in Hill's stock for 2017, as he'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that high ratio once again.

2. Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins (1.56 FPPT): Stills finished 27th in fantasy points among wideouts a season ago. However, he scored nine touchdowns despite ranking third in targets (80) on his own team. In all, he was 60th in targets at his position. Kenny is "still" worth just a late pick.

3. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints (1.44 FPPT): Cooks was 24th in targets among wideouts (Michael Thomas had more), but he made lots of statistical noise when he touched the football in New Orleans. This is positive news, considering his targets could decline as a member of the Patriots.

T-4. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (1.42 FPPT): Adams ranked seventh in fantasy points at the position on the strength of his 12 touchdowns, which tied for the third most. A regression to the mean is an obvious concern for Adams' 2017 draft value, as is the addition of Martellus Bennett.

T-4. J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals (1.42 FPPT): Nelson was 68th in targets and played in just 43 percent of Arizona's snaps, but he found the end zone seven times (once as a runner) despite the number of chances he received. There's some definite sleeper appeal with Nelson for next season.

T-6. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (1.37 FPPT): Jones finished with 129 targets (9.2 per game), but remember that he missed time due to a bum foot. He also had another impressive stat, finishing second among qualified wide receivers in fantasy points per snap (0.25). Jones is a first-round lock.

T-6. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (1.37 FPPT): Lots of touchdowns means a high point-per-target percentage, so it's no surprise to see Nelson (14 TDs) in the top 10 at the position. The veteran wide receiver saw 93 percent of his team's snaps and was sixth in targets among all wideouts.

T-6. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (1.37 FPPT): Thielen was second in snap percentage (75) and targets (91) behind Stefon Diggs in Minnesota last season, but he was far more productive with the ball in his hands. Of course, 26 percent of his fantasy points came in just one game (Week 16).

9. Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans (1.36 FPPT): Matthews was an impressive 14th in points (including nine touchdowns) among wideouts in 2016, but 30 players had more targets at the position. He did find the end zone on eight percent of his targets ... can he sustain that rate again?

T-10. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (1.35 FPPT): Bryant had a "down" season based on his high standards, but he did score a touchdown on eight percent of his targets with Dak Prescott at the helm. If he's on the field for 16 games, Bryant will be back in the top 10 among wide receivers.

T-10. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (1.35 FPPT): Thomas was 21st in targets among wideouts last year, but that should increase with Cooks now out of the mix. He's a second- or third-rounder.
12. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.31 FPPT): Brown's 154 targets were his lowest single-season total since 2012, but he didn't lack for effectiveness when he had the football in his hands.
13. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (1.28 FPPT): Baldwin saw more targets last season (125) than he did in his breakout 2015 campaign (103), but he finished with half the number of touchdowns (seven).
14. Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins (1.26 FPPT): Crowder was third in targets (99) among Washington wideouts, but the loss of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon should mean more opportunities.
15. DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins (1.25 FPPT): Jackson should have less competition for targets as a member of the Buccaneers, so an increase in fantasy points should be expected for 2017.
16. Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (1.24 FPPT): Williams led all Chargers wideouts in targets (119) a season ago, but the return of Keenan Allen should put a dent into his opportunities.
T-17. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.20 FPPT): Evans had more targets than any other wide receiver in the NFL last season, and he obviously made the most of his chances as the top scorer.
T-17. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (1.20 FPPT): Green missed six games due to injuries, but he averaged 10 targets a week when he was out on the gridiron. He'll be on the second-round radar.
19. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (1.18 FPPT): Hilton was fourth in targets (155) and led the position in yardage a season ago, but his low touchdown total hurt his point per target average.
20. Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears (1.17 FPPT): With Alshon Jeffery out of the mix, Meredith has some real sleeper appeal for 2017. He should see a bigger target share in the Chicago offense.
T-21. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (1.16 FPPT): Beckham's 10 touchdowns last season were a career low, albeit still solid. Will Brandon Marshall affect his red-zone usage for the G-Men?
T-21. Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys (1.16 FPPT): Beasley ranked 43rd in targets (98) among wide receivers last season, and that total doesn't figure to increase much in the Cowboys pass attack.
T-23. Kenny Britt, Los Angeles Rams (1.15 FPPT): Britt did well in the stat sheets considering his quarterback situation in Los Angeles. Now in Cleveland, he'll get ... Brock Osweiler? Ouch.
T-23. Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints (1.15 FPPT): Snead received 104 targets but scored just four times a season ago. Both totals should rise with Cooks no longer in the offensive mix.
T-25. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers (1.14 FPPT): Benjamin's point-per-target total would have been much worse had he not scored four touchdowns in his first four games of last season.
T-25. Sterling Shepard, New York Giants (1.14 FPPT): Shepard could be hard-pressed to see the same number of targets (105) and touchdowns (eight) with Marshall now in the mix for the Giants.
T-25. Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions (1.14 FPPT): Jones had the look of a breakout candidate to start last season, but his numbers tanked and his targets (103) were just 38th among wideouts.
T-25. Brandon LaFell, Cincinnati Bengals (1.14 FPPT): LaFell's 107 targets were the second-most in his career, but he won't sustain that total with Green back and Tyler Boyd in the offense.
T-29. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (1.13 FPPT): Cooper's snap percentage (89) and targets (131) are there, but his lack of success in the touchdown category has somewhat hurt his stock.
T-29. Mike Wallace, Baltimore Ravens (1.13 FPPT): Wallace led the Ravens in targets (117) a season ago, and the retirement of Steve Smith Sr. could mean more opportunities next season.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!


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