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T.Y. Hilton should explode for Week 14 daily fantasy

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Daily fantasy (DFS) brings a breath of fresh air to the industry, with an emphasis on the excitement of drafting a new team every week. We all know that the late summer drafts and the thrill of analyzing the weekly matchups are the best part of playing fantasy football. The daily game merges those two together to form the newest wave rocking the fantasy world.

Here in the weekly daily fantasy roundup column, we'll break down everything you need to know to pick the best plays on the Week 14 slate. If any of the terminology goes over your head. Please refer to the "what you need to know" preview of the roundup.

Top quarterback plays

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - We're not afraid of the road splits here. Ladarious Green's emergence brings another dimension to an already high-end offense. If his ownership percentage is lower as a result of the splits, even better.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers - The Jets looked like they are ready to pack it in last week. Kaepernick is back as the starter, and while we know now he has a cellar-low floor, he has a tremendous ceiling against the Jets and with his rushing upside.

Top running back plays

Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins - The Cardinals are tough run defense on paper. However, this should be a competitive game and the Dolphins are playing at home. The offensive line is getting healthy, as well. Ajayi should touch the ball 20-plus times in this spot, making him a strong option.

Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals - He's not been a good player, but the Browns are the second-worst run defense in the league. If Hill eclipses 18 carries he's going to be a touchdown threat, at worst.

Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins - He's the biggest game script-dependent starting back in the NFL, as he is simply not a factor at all in the passing game. Per Pro Football Focus he has three drops on just eight targets all year. The Eagles are falling apart and are unlikely to force Washington chase them. Kelly should push for 20 carries in this spot.

Top wide receiver plays

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers - Nelson sees about 29 percent of his targets from the slot, and the Seahawks are without Earl Thomas. If someone is making a big play over the middle of the field, Nelson is the most likely candidate.

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions - Theo Riddick finally got back to practice, but even so, Tate appears to be the main cog in this offense. Tate was much more involved when Riddick was out, so it's worth chasing his productivity if Riddick is limited at all.

Terrelle Pryor, Cleveland Browns - When Josh McCown played Terrelle Pryor had a whopping 18.9 air yards per target figure. He's been a downfield threat all season with several big plays on his resume. Robert Griffin III is back as the starter for this game. In the only game he played this year, way back in Week 1, he had the third-highest average depth of aimed throw (12.3) on the week.

Top tight end plays

Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans - Everyone will be off the Titans this week, and that's likely the correct move with the wide receivers. However, targets need to go somewhere when the team faces the Broncos this week. Denver has been beat by tight ends in the slot this year. While taking 44 percent of his snaps from the slot, 50 percent of Walker's total target come when he's lined up there.

Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers - It all came into focus for Ladarius Green in Week 13, as he saw 11 targets and made a number of downfield plays all while only being out on the field for less than 50 percent of the plays run. He's the top deep threat in the offense right now, and the Bills allow and NFL-high 9.9 yards per target to tight ends.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - Gates has zero and four targets in each of his last two games. That follows a stretch where he had a touchdown in three straight games. Gates has still been on the field and lapping Hunter Henry in snaps played. He's been on the field for 62.5 and 60 percent of the team snaps the last two weeks. The Panthers have allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends this season, which is tied for the NFL lead with Cleveland.

Stack(s) of the week

Cam Newton/Ted Ginn, Carolina Panthers - The volume is flowing is flowing Ginn's way, as he consistently runs as the No. 2 receiver. He has target totals of seven, eight, four, 10 and six the last five weeks. The Chargers travel to Carolina this week, and while their defense is improved, this home spot looks like a solid time for Carolina's offense to put something together. Emerging star corner Casey Hayward held Mike Evans to just two catches for 16 yards on 20 plays in coverage. If he tracks Kelvin Benjamin around the field, Ginn will be called upon to handle more work.

Tyrod Taylor/Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills - If the Steelers and Bills game turns into a high-scoring affair, Taylor and Watkins could come out of their shell. This week. After averaging over 23 air yards per target in his first game back, Watkins played a much more traditional role in Week 13 while collecting a more stabilized 11.7 air yards per target. This corresponded with his snaps and overall target volume going up. Both of these players come at a value in a week where there's not much of it to mine.

Best contrarian play

Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins - Much of the talk this week has centered around DeSean Jackson taking advantage of the Eagles' declining defense. Make no mistake, the defense is falling apart in Philadelphia and it starts with their cornerback play. The following receivers beat up on the Eagles the last four weeks:

5-95-TD to Brandon LaFell
5-113-2TD to Davante Adams
4-104 to Doug Baldwin
10-135 to Julio, 76-yard TD to Taylor Gabriel

Garcon could easily be the one who takes advantage of that rather than Jackson or Jamison Crowder. Garcon has been quietly productive over the last month, averaging with target totals of 10, seven, four and nine. The low four total game against the Cowboys, who we know limit the opposing offensive players by killing the clock. Crowder and Jackson will be the more popular plays, without question, but Garcon is in just as much of a prime positon.

Best obvious play

Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals - The Browns have just been abused by tight ends all season. Their 9.3 touchdown rate allowed to the position leads the NFL, whereas their 77.3 catch rate allowed is second-highest in the NFL. Eifert averages 7.2 targets per game since Week 8 and has scored in back-to-back games since A.J. Green went down with a hamstring injury.

Near 100 percent exposure player

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts - Coming off a nine-catch 146-yard performance against the Jets, Hilton is once again in a prime position. Hilton has been a target monster this year, averaging 9.9 in games played with Andrew Luck. He's always been a prime producer at home. The Texans pass defense started to fall apart of late, allowing 8-118-TD to Jordy Nelson, 4-57-TD to Amar Cooper and 9-107-TD to Allen Robinson in their last three games. Making matters worse, they will likely be without their top corner Jonathan Joseph who has rib and lung injuries.

Cheat code of the week

Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets - The undrafted rookie receiver owned a whopping 66.2 percent share of the Bryce Petty's intended air yards against the Colts last Monday night. Petty will get the start against the 49ers on Sunday, and it may just be worth chasing Anderson on Sunday should their connection hold up. Anderson can legitimately fly, as he busted off a 4.36 40-yard dash. The 49ers have allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns to wide receivers.

Matt Harmon is an associate fantasy writer/editor for NFL.com, and the creator of #ReceptionPerception, who you can follow on Twitter @MattHarmon_BYB or like on Facebook.

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