With trade deadlines quickly approaching, there's not much time left to wheel and deal in your fantasy leagues. So today, and for the next few weeks, I'll continue to shell out trade advice, but savor these last few weeks because Week 11 is next on the slate, and we're almost to the home stretch.
Last week in this space, I wrote about six players to tradefor to save your season. This week, I'm looking at three players to sell high on before the fantasy playoffs arrive, becuause for one reason or another, they might sink your chances at a title if you keep them, (and start them) in the crucial weeks to come.
If you disagree, hit me up on Twitter. I'll probably get salty and grumpy at first until I realize that there's too much hate in this world to get worked up over fantasy football. So have fun with it, because that's what its all about. Hopefully at some point this season, I've helped you make a decision that's strengthened your roster. On to the players!
Rob Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins
The Redskins rookie back has now started the last two games with Matt Jones on the shelf. Rob Kelley has played well during his time as the team's feature back, averaging 4.3 yards per carry with 184 rush yards and a touchdown in Washington's last two contests with a 12.1 fantasy points per game average.
So why am I suggesting to trade away a player at a scarce position, whom you likely added on waivers just a few weeks back and could potentially provide your team with RB2 production from here on out?
Rob Kelley has literally the worst remaining schedule of any team in terms of defenses to face for running backs.
After Washington's Week 11 game against Green Bay (a defense that had been tough against running backs to start the year but has struggled since), Kelley and the Redskins play four of their next five games on the road, all of which are against top-eight run-stopping teams in the league. The schedule plays out as so: Week 12 at Dallas, Week 13 at Arizona, Week 14 at Philadelphia, Week 15 against Carolina and Week 16 at Chicago.
The chart below identifies just how tough these upcoming teams have been against opposing running backs this season, along with tidbits about why each specific matchup will be so tough for Kelley to produce.
Week 12: Dallas is allowing just 82.6 rushing yards per game, and is one of only four teams in the NFL to not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.
Week 13: Arizona is allowing a league-best 3.26 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The league average is 4.14.
Week 14: Philadelphia has allowed just three rushing touchdowns to backs the entire season.
Week 15: Carolina has allowed just three rushing touchdowns to backs the entire season and is statistically the 2nd-ranked run defense in the league.
Week 16: Chicago is the most "favorable" of these matchups but is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing backs this year on 204 attempts against, which is the most of the five teams listed.
The going is about to get really tough for Kelley, so move him now while he's riding a wave of high volume and yardage totals.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
Since his 200-yard breakout in Week 6, Ajayi has amassed 608 rushing yards in four games, along with four rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 152 rush yards per game and is coming off another 20-touch game in Week 10.
Sell him? Yeah ... right.
I was on the Jay-Train all the way back in July. He was on my must-own running backs list and watching him succeed in the Miami backfield is one of the most fun storylines of this season. But if you want to win a fantasy title, you might want to think about shipping him off. His value is sky-high right now and you can probably get amazing value back if you're in need of depth at another position and already have a solid stable of running backs at your disposal.
First, Ajayi's upcoming schedule isn't too terrifying, but it's not great either. Ajayi faces the 12th-least favorable schedule for running backs the rest of the season. To be honest, the Dolphins Week 12 game against the 49ers probably skews it to be more favorable in a major way, because they boast the worst run defense in the league. But aside from that game, Ajayi will face L.A. in Week 11, Baltimore in Week 13, Arizona in Week 14, the Jets in Week 15 and Buffalo in Week 16.
Lest we forget the Damien Williams factor. I know, I know, he's not really on the field enough to matter. In fact, in Miami's first seven games, Williams had played on just 13 percent of the team's offensive snaps. But since their Week 8 bye, William's snap percentage has jumped up to 23 percent in the last two games. No, that's not a crazy high number, and yes, Ajayi is going to be the feature back and get the bulk of the workload for the Dolphins.
But since Ajayi's aforementioned Week 6 breakout, he has scored four times, like I said. You know who else has four touchdowns in that span? That's right, Damien Williams. Yes, Ajayi has out-snapped Williams by nearly 200 this season (278-82). But according to FantasyData.com's touch percentage statistic, or percentage of snaps played where player touched the football (includes pass attempts, rush attempts and receptions) Williams 43 percent is not far off from Ajayi's. So when Williams is on the field, the Dolphins tend to feed him, even if it's sparingly. We saw him vulture a red zone score from Ajayi last week, and that may continue going forward.
Jay Ajayi is an extremely talented player and has been a league-winning fantasy asset this season given he was probably dropped at some point early on. But the time is nigh to sell him before he runs into a brick wall during the fantasy playoffs.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Allen Robinson is finally starting to heat up.
He posted his first 100-yard game of the season last week, and has scored in each of his last two games. He's hogged the Jaguars' targets all season, but over the last three games in particular he owns a ridiculous 27.9 percent target share, with five red zone targets in that span too.
So you'd be crazy to send him away now, right? Well actually ...
Robinson, while he's been peppered with 95 targets this year (tied for fifth-most among wideouts), has collected the fewest yards among the 12 receivers with 90-plus targets on the season (549). It's not his fault though; it's on Blake Bortles who has been struggling mightily this season, maybe you've heard. Bortles hasn't posted a 100.0 passer rating in a single game in 2016 and has tossed 11 interceptions, tied for second most among signal callers. Not even garbage time can save his, or Robinson's fantasy value this year.
I suggest selling A-Rob now because he faces the least favorable schedule possible for the rest of the season for wideouts and more specifically, in the fantasy playoffs which begin Week 13 (in most leagues). It's actually impossible for Robinson's matchups to be any worse in Weeks 13 through 15. The Denver Broncos head to Jacksonville in Week 13, then the Vikings come to town the week after that, followed by the Texans in Week 15 (he'll catch a bit of a break in Week 16 against the Titans, if you survive that long). Those three teams listed are the top three teams in the NFL in terms of fewest receiving yards allowed to wideouts this year. The trio has also allowed a combined 18 receiving touchdowns to wideouts. For context, the Chargers alone have allowed 15.
It's time to drop the curtain on A-Rob's 2016 fantasy season before you get to the playoffs and realize you've made a horrible mistake by not selling him when you had the chance.
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