Analyst 2016 fantasy mock draft: Allen Robinson rises

Print


We're entering peak fantasy football season now, so mock draft and real drafts are ramping up. We've even dubbed this week "Fantasy Draft Week" across NFL Media, so keep your eyes and ears open for the latest and greatest content online, on social media, and on NFL Network. With this being "Fantasy Draft Week" and all, we figured this would be a fitting time for our FINAL 10-team analyst mock draft of the offseason. Want to join your own mock draft? Don't worry, it's super easy. To get started just click here.

The standard scoring, 10-team, 15-round league consisted of NFL Fantasy LIVE members, producers, and writers. Teams did not need to draft a full roster, so several teams went without a kicker, defense or both. I provide a little analysis on each round below, and you can see Michael Fabiano's personal draft strategy above.

Draft order

(randomized 30 minutes before start)

1. Adam Rank (@adamrank) - NFL Fantasy LIVE Analyst
2. Marcas Grant (@MarcasG) - NFL Fantasy Editor
3. Cynthia Frelund (@cfrelund) - NFL Media Analytics Expert
4. Matt "Franchise" Franciscovich (@MattFranchise) - NFL Fantasy Associate Writer/Editor
5. Hytham Kilani - NFL Fantasy LIVE Producer
6. Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) - NFL Fantasy Associate Writer/Editor
7. Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) - NFL Media Senior Fantasy Analyst
8. Alex Gelhar (@AlexGelhar) - NFL Fantasy Writer/Editor
9. James Koh (@JamesDKoh) - NFL Fantasy LIVE (show/podcast) Host
10. Elliot Harrison (@HarrisonNFL) - NFL Media Analyst

ROUND 1


1. Antonio Brown, Steelers (WR1) - Rank
2. David Johnson, Cardinals (RB1) - Grant
3. Julio Jones, Falcons (WR2) - Frelund
4. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (WR3) - Franchise
5. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (RB2) - Kilani
6. Allen Robinson, Jaguars (WR4) - Harmon
7. Todd Gurley, Rams (RB3) - Fabiano
8. A.J. Green, Bengals (WR5) - Gelhar
9. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (WR6) - Koh
10. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (RB4) - Harrison

A slightly different draft order led to a bit of a shakeup in Round 1, with Todd Gurley falling to the seventh-overall pick (there was no way he fell past Fabs though). Perhaps everyone turned into a hater after reading Matt Harmon's heater on why Gurley isn't worth a top-five pick. Speaking of Harmon, he also threw us for a loop by drafting Allen Robinson at the six spot. While many are afraid Robinson will struggle to replicate his numbers from 2015, the performance he's been putting on in the preseason is a reason for hope that 2015 is just the beginning for the former Penn State product.

ROUND 2


11. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (TE1) - Harrison
12. Jordy Nelson, Packers (WR7) - Koh
13. Keenan Allen, Chargers (WR8) - Gelhar
14. Dez Bryant, Cowboys (WR9) - Fabiano
15. Lamar Miller, Texans (RB5) - Harmon
16. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers (RB6) - Kilani
17. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (RB7) - Franchise
18. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (RB8) - Frelund
19. Eddie Lacy, Packers (RB9) - Grant
20. Mike Evans, Buccaneers (WR10) - Rank

I was drafting from a meeting, so I had to pull the trigger quickly on Keenan Allen or Dez Bryant. My gut in that moment said Allen, who figures to be a massive target hog for San Diego now that Steve Johnson is on IR for the season. I love the running backs available in the second round here, and even a few that fell to the third. If you want to go wide receiver-heavy at the top of the draft but still secure an elite runner, any of these options are great gets in Round 2.

ROUND 3


21. Brandon Marshall, Jets (WR11) - Rank
22. Amari Cooper, Raiders (WR12) - Grant
23. Doug Martin, Buccaneers (RB10) - Frelund
24. Alshon Jeffery, Bears (WR13) - Franchise
25. Mark Ingram, Saints (RB11) - Kilani
26. Sammy Watkins, Bills (WR14) - Harmon
27. LeSean McCoy, Bills (RB12) - Fabiano
28. C.J. Anderson, Denver (RB13) - Gelhar
29. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (QB1) - Koh
30. Cam Newton, Panthers (QB2) - Harrison

Marcas Grant is drinking the Amari Cooper Kool-Aid, taking him over the likes of Alshon Jeffery and Sammy Watkins. That's not a crazy reach by any stretch, though, as Cooper finished as a top-24 wideout as a rookie despite battling a nagging foot injury for basically the entire second half of the year. As we approach the season, I'm falling more in love with LeSean McCoy in the third round. He's looking like the No. 2 option in the passing game after Watkins and should be fed the ball on the ground, too. Curse Fabiano for sniping him one pick ahead of me.

ROUND 4


31. Matt Forte, Jets (RB14) - Harrison
32. Carlos Hyde, 49ers (RB15) - Koh
33. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (WR15) - Gelhar
34. Brandin Cooks, Saints (WR16) - Fabiano
35. Donte Moncrief, Colts (WR17) - Harmon
36. Randall Cobb, Packers (WR18) - Kilani
37. Jeremy Hill, Bengals (RB16) - Franchise
38. Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs (WR19) - Frelund
39. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (WR20) - Grant
40. Latavius Murray, Raiders (RB17) - Rank

I'm a little more enthused with the wide receiver values in this round than what's available at running back, although Jeremy Hill and Latavius Murray feel like solid fourth-round picks. But when you can get a potential WR1 like Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Donte Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton, or Jeremy Maclin in the middle of the fourth round, that's hard to pass up. Matt Forte worries me a bit at the top of the fourth given the presence of both Bilal Powell to eat into his passing game work, and Khiry Robinson to eat into his goal-line carries. As for Carlos Hyde, I love his talent but anyone not concerned about the 49ers offense this season needs to take a few moments for tape study and self-reflection.

ROUND 5


41. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (K1) - Rank
42. Michael Floyd, Cardinals (WR21) - Grant
43. Julian Edelman, Patriots (WR22) - Frelund
44. Eric Decker, Jets (WR23) - Franchise
45. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (WR24) - Kilani
46. Jordan Reed, Redskins (TE2) - Harmon
47. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (WR25) - Fabiano
48. John Brown, Cardinals (WR26) - Gelhar
49. Ryan Mathews, Eagles (RB18) - Koh
50. Golden Tate, Lions (WR27) - Harrison

Rank, true to form, once again drafted Stephen Gostkowski in Round 5. If you want to know why he's doing this (but isn't advising you to), check out his article from earlier this offseason HERE. The fact that seven wide receivers (and eight pass-catchers) went in this round as opposed to just one running back speaks to how the league is becoming more pass-heavy, and fantasy owners need to take note. Rich Hribar of Rotoworld did an excellent study earlier this offseason looking at how drafting wide receiver-heavy teams is here to stay in fantasy. As for the one running back taken, I think the fifth round is just a touch high for Ryan Mathews. He looked good in early preseason action and will be operating in an offense led by a new head coach who likes featuring running backs (Doug Pederson), but the Eagles offense could be a mess in 2016 and Mathews (ankle) is already injured. Shocking, I know.

ROUND 6


51. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers (WR28) - Harrison
52. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (WR29) - Koh
53. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (RB19) - Gelhar
54. Thomas Rawls, Seahawks (RB20) - Fabiano
55. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (QB3) - Harmon
56. Greg Olsen, Panthers (TE3) - Kilani
57. Melvin Gordon, Chargers (RB21) - Franchise
58. DeSean Jackson, Redskins (WR30) - Frelund
59. Giovani Bernard, Bengals (RB22) - Grant
60. Andrew Luck, Colts (QB4) - Rank

It's always interesting to see where Kelvin Benjamin lands in mock drafts. Yes, he was a top-20 wide receiver as a rookie, but the Carolina offense evolved last year as Cam Newton took the next step as a passer. Plus with Ted Ginn still hanging around and Devin Funchess pushing for more work, there's no guarantee Benjamin once again sees the 145 targets he saw as a rookie. The Washington wide receivers, both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, are probably still a bit underrated. With a healthy pass-catching corps, Kirk Cousins should be able to keep that offense afloat in an NFC East that doesn't exactly boast many terrifying defenses. And with first-round pick Josh Doctson still battling an Achilles injury, the top of this roster should see plenty of work. That's why I'm a fan of Cynthia grabbing Jackson at the backend of the sixth round to bolster her receiving corps.

ROUND 7


61. Duke Johnson, Browns (RB23) - Rank
62. Drew Brees, Saints (QB5) - Grant
63. Carson Palmer, Cardinals (QB6) - Frelund
64. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (WR31) - Franchise
65. Jeremy Langford, Bears (RB24) - Kilani
66. Sterling Shepard, Giants (WR32) - Harmon
67. Jordan Matthews, Eagles (WR33) - Fabiano
68. Arian Foster, Dolphins (RB25) - Gelhar
69. Corey Coleman, Browns (WR34) - Koh
70. Danny Woodhead, Chargers (RB26) - Harrison

With Jeremy Langford starting to look like the clear-cut No. 1 running back in Chicago, it was a bit surprising to see him still hanging around in the middle of Round 7. I'd have taken him had he fallen three more picks to me, but had to settle for Arian Foster. There are a lot of questions swirling around Foster and the Dolphins backfield, but if we're to believe the hype Foster looks like the back fantasy fans fell for years ago. I'll take a shot on that upside in the seventh round no problem. Speaking of upside shots, I love Harmon and Koh nabbing rookie receivers who could be looking at huge workloads in Sterling Shepard and Corey Coleman. Yes, Josh Gordon is returning for the Browns, but Coleman will have the first four weeks of the season to make a case for more consistent targets once Gordon returns.

ROUND 8


71. Seattle Seahawks D/ST (DEF1) - Harrison
72. Marvin Jones, Lions (WR35) - Koh
73. Frank Gore, Colts (RB27) - Gelhar
74. DeMarco Murray, Titans (RB28) - Fabiano
75. Rashad Jennings, Giants (RB29) - Harmon
76. Allen Hurns, Jaguars (WR36) - Kilani
77. Chris Ivory, Jaguars (RB30) - Franchise
78. Delanie Walker, Titans (TE4) - Frelund
79. Michael Crabtree, Raiders (WR37) - Grant
80. Torrey Smith, 49ers (WR38) - Rank

Funny enough, here's what I wrote back for our second mock draft when Frank Gore went in the eighth round. It still applies now: Frank Gore in Round 8 is criminal. Yes, he's as old as the Earth itself, but Gore is one of a handful of players who has successfully been able to shin-kick Father Time into submission (for now). There's no one to truly threaten him for touches, and if the Indy offense rebounds to 2014-levels with a healthy Andrew Luck, Moncrief and Hilton, then Gore should be locked into at least solid flex numbers, if not more. I'm honestly afraid to touch DeMarco Murray right now in fantasy, even in the eighth round. We have no idea how the split will be between him and Derrick Henry and even in the preseason I'm still seeing sluggish 2015 DeMarco, and not 2014-Offensive-Player-of-the-Year DeMarco. He could be a huge value if he puts together a solid season, but I'm more scared of drafting Murray than whatever lies at the bottom of the ocean. Nope, that's a lie, the bottom of the Mariana Trench still scares the bejesus out of me. Also, Elliot's Seahawks D/ST pick was auto-drafted when he accidentally lost internet connection. So don't flame him on Twitter too harshly.

ROUND 9


81. Terrance West, Ravens (RB31) - Rank
82. Charles Sims, Buccaneers (RB32) - Grant
83. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (WR39) - Frelund
84. Derrick Henry, Titans (RB33) - Franchise
85. Kamar Aiken, Ravens (WR40) - Kilani
86. Kevin White, Bears (WR41) - Harmon
87. Tom Brady, Patriots (QB7) - Fabiano
88. Tyler Eifert, Bengals (TE5) - Gelhar
89. Isaiah Crowell, Browns (RB34) - Koh
90. Theo Riddick, Lions (RB35) - Harrison

Rank is clearly buying into the Terrance West hype by taking him in the single-digit rounds. I'm down with the T-West resurgence, but the ninth round feels a bit rich. Derrick Henry going one round after Murray might be a slight overreaction to the preseason, or an indication that we truly don't know what's happening in this backfield. I'll go with the latter, as Henry has looked solid so far and could be at worst a goal-line vulture. I hemmed and hawed when it came to selecting Eifert, but he's starting to run this week and his upside in Cincinnati is huge -- once he gets back on the field. The ninth round for a probably top-five tight end didn't feel too pricey with how the rest of my roster had taken shape.

ROUND 10


91. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (WR42) - Harrison
92. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (RB36) - Koh
93. Philip Rivers, Chargers (QB8) - Gelhar
94. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (QB9) - Fabiano
95. Bilal Powell, Jets (RB37) - Harmon
96. DeAngelo Williams, Steelers (RB38) - Kilani
97. Tajae Sharpe, Titans (WR43) - Franchise
98. Ameer Abdullah, Lions (WR44) - Frelund
99. Tavon Austin, Rams (WR45) - Grant
100. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars (RB39) - Rank

Ah, welcome to the big leagues, Tajae Sharpe. It's hard to find a player who has received more offseason hype than Sharpe, and all of that culminated this weekend with his solid performance in Week 2 of the preseason. At this point, it's looking like Sharpe will be hard-pressed to finish lower than the No. 2 wideout for the Titans. This might be a bit early for me to take him, but I can't fault Franchise for the reach given how many wide receivers had already been drafted. Even though James said on a recent NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast episode he was off of Tevin Coleman, he goes ahead and drafts him ahead of Bilal Powell, Ameer Abdullah, and T.J. Yeldon -- three backs I'd definitely take before Coleman. Hmm ...

ROUND 11


101. Christine Michael, Seahawks (RB40) - Rank
102. Julius Thomas, Jaguars (TE6) - Grant
103. Derek Carr, Raiders (QB10) - Frelund
104. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins (RB41) - Franchise
105. Devontae Booker, Broncos (RB42) - Kilani
106. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots (RB43) - Harmon
107. Matt Jones, Redskins (RB44) - Fabiano
108. Gary Barnidge, Browns (TE7) - Gelhar
109. DeVante Parker, Dolphins (WR46) - Koh
110. Steve Smith, Ravens (WR47) - Harrison

There's so much to unpack in this round. First off, man, are Jay Ajayi and Matt Jones taking big hits to their draft stock. Ajayi tumbled (probably too far) because of the emergence of Arian Foster, while Jones fell because of an AC joint sprain that is keeping him out at least the rest of the preseason. I wrote about why this injury is worrisome for Jones in my preseason Week 2 takeaways piece. Marcas surprised me a bit by taking Julius Thomas ahead of Gary Barndige, and with the running backs and wideouts looking rather uninspiring, I was happy to grab Barnidge. He'll give me a TE1 for the first several weeks until Eifert returns, at which points I gain some valuable roster flexibility having two top-end tight ends to play in the flex, or try to trade. I'm not really high on DeVante Parker this year, but as the WR46 Koh got some nice value. Steve Smith on the other hand, worries me, and I fear if we played out this league Harrison would end up regretting that pick.

ROUND 12


111. Willie Snead, Saints (WR48) - Harrison
112. Travis Benjamin, Chargers (WR49) - Koh
113. Darren Sproles, Eagles (RB45) - Gelhar
114. Coby Fleener, Saints (TE8) - Fabiano
115. Mohamed Sanu, Falcons (WR50) - Harmon
116. Tyrod Taylor, Bills (QB11) - Kilani
117. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (TE9) - Franchise
118. Zach Ertz, Eagles (TE10) - Frelund
119. Pierre Garcon, Redskins (WR51) - Grant
120. C.J. Prosise, Seahawks (RB46) - Rank

Coby Fleener in the 12th round is a great value for Fabiano, as he'll have a chance to put up top-10 fantasy tight end numbers if he can make the most of his opportunities. I'm starting to really buy into Darren Sproles as a late-round running back, even in standard formats. He saw 138 touches last year in a backfield where DeMarco Murray's 237 touches are now up for grabs. Ryan Mathews is an OK pass-catcher, but the team recently extended Sproles' contract, showing more support to the notion that he'll have a big role in this offense. At the very least he's worth a flier to build out my running back depth. Other picks I love in this round: Tyrod Taylor, Travis Benjamin, Mohamed Sanu. The only puzzling picks were Zach Ertz and C.J. Prosise. I like the players, but question their role in each offense as Ertz still must contend with Brent Celek while Prosise is at best the third option behind Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael.

ROUND 13


121. Rishard Matthews, Dolphins (WR52) - Rank
122. Denver Broncos D/ST (DEF2) - Grant
123. Laquon Treadwell, Vikings (WR53) - Frelund
124. Eli Manning, Giants (QB12) - Franchise
125. Blake Bortles, Jaguars (QB13) - Kilani
126. Josh Gordon, Browns (WR54) - Harmon
127. Justin Forsett, Ravens (RB47) - Fabiano
128. Mike Wallace, Ravens (WR55) - Gelhar
129. Tyler Boyd, Bengals (WR56) - Koh
130. Alfred Morris, Cowboys (RB48) - Harrison

Rishard Matthews is a great pick by Rank here, especially since he came a few rounds after Sharpe. Eli Manning is a stellar grab by Franchise for a late-round quarterback to round out his roster. I took a stab at Mike Wallace because who doesn't love a comeback story? Harmon takes the shot on Josh Gordon, and will hope to weather the first four weeks of the year with Gordon burning a spot on his bench while he serves a suspension. He looks to have the wide receivers to do so, though, after loading up on the position with three of his first four picks.

ROUND 14


131. Josh Doctson, Redskins (WR57) - Harrison
132. Zach Miller, Bears (TE11) - Koh
133. Ted Ginn, Panthers (WR58) - Gelhar
134. Antonio Gates, Chargers (TE12) - Fabiano
135. Jared Cook, Packers (TE13) - Harmon
136. Keith Marshall, Redskins (RB49) - Kilani
137. Kansas City Chiefs D/ST (DEF3) - Franchise
138. Houston Texans D/ST (DEF4) - Frelund
139. Spencer Ware, Chiefs (RB50) - Grant
140. Martellus Bennett, Patriots (TE14) - Rank

The tight end depth as we approach the end of the draft is insane. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Zach Miller, Antonio Gates, Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett finished among the top-12 scorers at their position.

ROUND 15


141. Los Angeles Rams D/ST (DEF5) - Rank
142. Nelson Agholor, Eagles (WR59) - Grant
143. Justin Tucker, Ravens (K2) - Frelund
144. Graham Gano, Panthers (K3) - Franchise
145. Carolina Panthers D/ST (DEF6) - Kilani
146. Devin Funchess, Panthers (WR60) - Harmon
147. Phillip Dorsett, Colts (WR61) - Fabiano
148. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings (RB51) - Gelhar
149. James White, Patriots (RB52) - Koh
150. Dan Bailey, Cowboys (K4) - Harrison

All I have to say about this round is pour some out for Dion Lewis. An NFL Fantasy Stronghold favorite, Lewis went undrafted after news broke this weekend that he needed a second knee surgery and could be missing at least two months.

Why wait? CLICK HERE to get your 2016 NFL Fantasy season started.

-- Follow Alex on Twitter @AlexGelhar

Print