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From bargain to bust: Moreno's value sinking fast

Knowshon Moreno was one of the best draft bargains of the 2013 fantasy football season. In 2014, he's already shaping up to be one of the biggest busts.

After showing up to a recent Miami Dolphins minicamp overweight and out of shape, Moreno is now dealing with a problematic left knee that has required arthroscopic surgery. According to NFL Media's Albert Breer, the procedure will keep the veteran out of action for about a month. That's enough time for Moreno to heal and be back on the gridiron in plenty of time for the start of the regular season, but he could miss part of training camp.

That's never a good thing.

Moreno, who is coming off a career season with the Denver Broncos, finished among the five best running backs in fantasy football on the strength of his 1,586 scrimmage yards and 13 total touchdowns. The team decided not to bring him back, though, which raised some red flags in the fantasy world ... maybe now we know why that decision was made.

Aside from the fact that he's not an overly durable runner, Moreno has never had a ton of statistical success in his career without Peyton Manning under center. His previous best campaign was in 2009, when he posted over 1,100 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Since then, he has played in 10-plus games in a season just once before starting 15 contests in 2013.

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In his absence, the value of Lamar Miller will rise. Yes, the same Lamar Miller who left egg on my face when I touted him as a sleeper last season. It wouldn't be the first time I've been a year off on a player's breakout season, and the Miami (FL) product has drawn rave reviews at camp.

In fact, he had been taking most of the first-team snaps even before Moreno's knee flared up. That's not to suggest that Miller will lead the depth chart when the 'Fins open the new season, but he's no longer someone to ignore either.

In fact, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for him to lead all Miami runners in fantasy points this season. As for Moreno, I wouldn't touch him as anything more than a borderline No. 4 or 5 runner until he's back on the field.


Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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