Rodgers not built to be a No. 1
I don't see Rodgers seeing an enormous increase in touches or fantasy value next season, because the Falcons are a lock to add another running back -- whether via free agency or the NFL Draft. At 5-foot-6 and 196 pounds, Rodgers simply doesn't have the frame and size to be a No. 1 runner at the pro level. Instead, he will be a solid change-of-pace option on the field and a viable PPR option from a fantasy perspective. If I were the Falcons, I'd look to target Alabama's Eddie Lacy as Turner's replacement. The franchise had pretty good luck with another member of the Crimson Tide, Julio Jones, just a couple years ago in the draft.
Rodgers has Sproles-like potential
Will Jacquizz Rodgers be a No. 1 back if Michael Turner leaves? No. The Falcons will certainly bring someone else in to fill that role. Will he see more work than he did in 2012? I strongly believe so. Rodgers was becoming a larger part of the offense near the end of the season, which should continue in 2013. He has flex appeal as a late-round draft pick, but in a pass-happy offense, has the potential to be Darren Sproles Lite.
Rodgers has deep sleeper appeal
The Falcons are a pass-first, pass-second and pass-third team now. While Rodgers' value may increase slightly with a slight bump in playing time, Atlanta is still going to pair him with a more traditional running back. There's no way they leave the running game entirely to Rodgers, as they know to advance in the playoffs they're going to have to run the ball effectively when they need to, and they lost the ability to do that. That's what really sealed Turner's fate in Atlanta this season. I can't tell you (because I had Turner in two leagues) how frustrating it was to watch him get the football from the 2-yard line and gain half a yard. So if it was frustrating for me, Joe Fantasy Owner, what do you think it was for the Falcons? However Rodgers will be worth a very late-round pick just in case he turns into Darren Sproles. He's a deep sleeper and a curiosity, but that's about it. Whoever winds up as the "other" running back will still get drafted higher, because the Falcons will have to give the football to someone inside the 10-yard line.
Rodgers won't see major boost
Jacquizz Rodgers is not equipped to be an every-down back in the NFL, so don't expect him to pick up the production left behind by Michael Turner's possible release. Look for the Falcons to add another back (maybe Ahmad Bradshaw?) to handle the early-down carries, while the Quiz will continue to excel as a PPR option. Rodgers more than doubled his reception total from his rookie season, so figure he will continue to contribute in that way.
Rodgers has more value than you think
I would be tentative about spending anything higher than a seventh-round choice for Jacquizz Rodgers. I do think he can be a 1,000-yard back, but not the kind of thumper who's going to get you at least 8-10 touchdowns or more. I see him scoring some, and being a part of the offense, not the focal point of ... no, that distinction lies with the talent outside in Roddy White and Julio Jones. If the Falcons players are somehow able to convince Tony Gonzalez to come back, then than diminishes Rodgers' value a hair more. He's not a blocker. Think about this little fun fact: Matt Ryan threw 44 more passes than he ever did before, despite the fact that Atlanta won 13 games (and thus were not playing catchup all the time a la Carson Palmer and the Raiders.) All this being said, don't let Rogers fall off your map. Decent running backs are still somewhat scarce in fantasy.