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Adrian Peterson as No. 1 pick in 2013? Not so fast

Based on his impressive postseason run and Super Bowl win, has Joe Flacco moved up your list of the top fantasy quarterbacks for 2013? - @Christopher625 (via Twitter)

Michael Fabiano: The NFL Fantasy LIVE crew did an instant debate on this topic earlier in the week, and the answer was the same all around - Flacco is not a reliable fantasy starter. I know, he made like the second coming of Joe Montana in the postseason and Super Bowl, but have you seen Flacco's numbers in the regular-season? He's like Clark Kent for the first 17 weeks and Superman in the postseason. He's failed to finish among the top 10 players at his position in fantasy points for two straight seasons, and playing Flacco on the road is a huge gamble. Furthermore, there are so many good fantasy options at quarterback nowadays that guys like Flacco and Matt Schaub just don't cut it as No. 1s.

How can you have Arian Foster ranked ahead of Adrian Peterson for next season? Come on man! - G. Markus (via Facebook)

M.F.: Wow, the venom I received for ranking Peterson second! I know what you're all saying, that A.D. is superhuman and can be the first runner ever to follow a 2,000-yard season with another of at least 1,500. (By the way, no runner who posted 2,000 rushing yards has rushed for even 1,500 the following year). Can Peterson break that trend? Of course he can, but I can see him also scoring around 50 fewer fantasy points in 2013. Tell me you wouldn't sign up for 1,500 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns from Peterson next season? I would ... and those totals would rank him behind Foster based on his average number of fantasy points scored in the last three years. You might also argue that Foster's increased workload in 2012 is a cause for concern, but Peterson carried the ball just three fewer times than Foster! This is a close call, but Foster has been a better fantasy back than Peterson over the last three seasons combined and is the runner I will draft if I land the No. 1 overall pick in 2013.

Where do you have Alfred Morris ranked among 2013 running backs? - @west127 (via Twitter)

M.F.: Morris' value will be a point of contention for next season. Can he follow up a rookie campaign with over 1,600 yards, 13 touchdowns and 241.00 fantasy points? That's going to be a tough act to follow. With that said, I have him ranked at No. 10 at his position at this early stage of the offseason. Aside from the obvious backs like Foster, Peterson, Ray Rice and Marshawn Lynch, I also have LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and C.J. Spiller ahead of the Redskins runner. With that being said, Morris is still going to be worth no less than a high second-rounder in most standard leagues.

What sort of value will Titus Young have in St. Louis? Will he be worth a late-round flier? - D. Hanzus (via Facebook)

M.F.: Young, who recently proclaimed himself to be better than Calvin Johnson (umm, yeah sure Titus), is a risk-reward pickup for the Rams and fantasy leaguers alike. Despite some of the ridiculous comments he has made, Young does have a lot of upside on the football field. This is a situation to watch, as both Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson are slated to become free agents. In the event that he earns a starting role, Young would be well worth at least a late-round pick in 2013.

Forget about Foster and Peterson, I think Jamaal Charles should be the No. 1 overall running back in 2013. Thoughts? - @Ty_In_StL (via Twitter)

M.F.: I don't think this is an outlandish prediction at all, especially now that Andy Reid is calling the shots in Kansas City. While his brand of the West Coast offense is pass-laden and has led to criticism over the use of his running backs, players like McCoy and Brian Westbrook still saw plenty of touches (running plus receiving) during Reid's time in Philadelphia. With that being said, I have Charles ranked among the top six players at his position and a surefire first-round selection in all formats.

What are your thoughts on Terrelle Pryor? Can he unseat Carson Palmer in Oakland? - G. Lungarini (via Facebook)

M.F.: I'm not going to lie about it, Pryor is going to be a member of the Fantasy Man Crush list if he opens next season as the starter for coach Dennis Allen. You know how much I love those running quarterbacks, and Pryor has ridiculous fantasy potential - just take a look at his stats in Week 17 against the San Diego Chargers (22.90 fantasy points). There have been some rumblings that the Raiders will not pay Palmer's 2013 base salary of $13 million, and I would expect a quarterback competition regardless of who is on the roster. Clearly, this is going to be a situation to watch in the weeks and months to come.

What do you think of McCoy for 2013? - @s_caiafa92 (via Twitter)

M.F.: McCoy, one of the bigger fantasy disappointments last season, should be in a position to rebound under new coach Chip Kelly. Kelly's offenses at Oregon produced huge numbers for running backs (look at the college stats of LaMichael James), and McCoy is still in the prime of his career at age 24. I have the versatile runner ranked fifth among backs for 2013.

I'm in a two-player, PPR keeper league and need to retain two of Colin Kaepernick, Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Julio Jones and Jason Witten. - R. Asmel (via Facebook)

M.F.: You have some nice keeper options, but I would keep the two running backs. Having a backfield that includes two top-five picks like Foster and Lynch is a huge advantage and allows you the chance to focus on wide receivers and a quarterback in the first four rounds of the re-draft. I wouldn't be surprised if you were able to re-acquire one of Kaepernick or Jones.

Who are your top five fantasy players for next season? - @GarrettGreene13 (via Twitter)

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M.F.: No surprises here - 1. Foster; 2. Peterson; 3. Lynch; 4. Rice; 5. McCoy. It's a close call for the fifth spot between McCoy and Charles, but I'm going with the former. One little nugget about my top 200 players, which will come out later in the offseason - I don't have a quarterback ranked among the first 20 overall players, not even Aaron Rodgers.

Assuming Tony Gonzalez does in fact retire, who will move into the top five at the tight end position for 2013? - T. Helgeson (via Facebook)

M.F.: Good question. If we assume that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the first two players taken at the position, tight ends three to five will be Aaron Hernandez, Witten and either Greg Olsen or Dennis Pitta. You might also see Vernon Davis sneak into the top five after his impressive postseason run, but his dreadful 2012 regular-season numbers make him a risk-reward option. One thing is for sure - fantasy leaguers should be waiting on the position (outside of Gronkowski and Graham).

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to @Michael_Fabiano or send a question via Facebook!

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