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Doug Martin will be fantasy football's highest-producing rookie

  • By Matt "Money" Smith
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1. Monster year from Marshall: Brandon Marshall will finish with more fantasy points in 2012 than Larry Fitzgerald. Marshall has never had a problem producing on the field, it's been away from the gridiron that he gets himself in trouble. Fitz was top 5 last year regardless of who was throwing him the ball, which also means Marshall will be ahead of guys like Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson and Steve Smith as well. Be careful trying to get cute by waiting until the late third round to pick him up, since he's likely to be gone already.

2. "Burner" Turner is burnt out: Michael Turner's career as a big-time fantasy producer is finished. The Falcons used him up and will now spit him out. After rushing for an average of 1,400 yards and 13 scores in three of the last four seasons, the average of 335 carries in those seasons has caught up. You could see him fading in the final weeks of the 2011 season, and in 2012 we will see how 60 games of heavy use is about all most running backs are capable of enduring before having to fade into the background.

3. VY > Tebow. Vince Young will be worth more on your bench than Tim Tebow. Tebow's role as a personal protector in the punt game should raise red flags for all those hoping he takes over at quarterback. Ask yourself, "would any franchise put their starting QB out on the field in a situation knowing he is the last line of defense for a punt return specialist that broke through and is expected to make a tackle?" Not a chance. The Jets will be a hot mess this season, but Tebow isn't doing a darn thing for you. Grab VY, and bank on Chan Gailey growing frustrated with Ryan Fitzpatrick at some point and handing things over to Young.

4. Bounceback year for Vick. Michael Vick will be closer to the 2010 Vick than the 2011 Vick. Part of this comes thanks to a fully invested DeSean Jackson and the special relationship that pair had two seasons ago. It was obvious that Jackson never got over the team refusing to get him his money in the 2011 offseason. As my draft partner Bucky Brooks said, "his money was funny," and that saw Jackson unfocused on the field. Nobody has more weapons than Vick, and remember Andy Reid likes to run those bubble screens to LeSean McCoy instead of just handing him the ball, and all that production will go to Vick's total as well.

5. My favorite Martin. Doug Martin will be the highest-producing rookie in 2012. It's all about fit and circumstance. Martin reminds a lot of people of Maurice Jones-Drew. A competent three-down back that can handle a load between the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield, and block his butt off in protection. The Buccaneers have a decent schedule, and new coach Greg Schiano loves to lean on the run. Factor in Josh Freeman's 22 INTs last season, and they'll lean on the run while setting up play-action passes for Vincent Jackson and Freeman to make that investment worthwhile.

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