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Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: My bust predictions are based on where I suspect the player will be drafted, and the production you would expect from a selection in that round. I see running back-by-committee situation in Kansas City. Because Charles is coming off that ACL, look for free-agent acquisition Peyton Hillis to get some carries. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 50/50 split in order to protect Charles and ease him back into that lead role. Charles is not a first-round selection.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: Call me a hater, but I'm still dumbfounded that he managed to put up the numbers he did. I have to believe that defenses, especially in his division, will look at the film, sort out the flaws Newton has, and put him in check. He's going to be a top five pick in your draft, and you're not going to see top five production.
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: See above. If opposing defenses are figuring out Newton, they're likely going to take out Smith, too. He'll still put up numbers, but he'll fall out of the top 10 this season.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: His last two weeks accounted for 57 of his 210 points in standard leagues. That over a quarter of his production in two games, both of which came against Chicago and Detroit teams that were ravaged by injuries. Let someone else that's just looking at the top producers from 2011 fall for the mirage that is Nelson, the guy had six weeks in single digits.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: That 172-yard/two-TD performance in Week 17 against the Buccaneers was an aberration. They guy is done. The Falcons have run him into the ground. Another 300-carry season last year has just put too much wear on the guy. This is the year he slips.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: I just don't believe in the guy. He ran with such ferocity at Fresno State, yet in the NFL he looks tentative, and late to the hole. I see Le'Ron McClain filling that Tolbert role well, and taking away points from Mathews, which isn't what you want out of your first-round pick.
Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: He's going to be taken too high. Priority No. 1 for teams playing the Giants this coming season will be stopping Cruz. Too many of those big weeks came thanks to wacky plays that I can't see being replicated.
Any New York Jets player: They invited a mess into that locker room with the Tim Teebow acquisition, and it's going to tear that team apart. Some guys were already selling Mark Sanchez, and with a workout warrior like Tebow, half the team is going to love him and want him in there, the other half is going to wonder what the hell all the fuss is about. It's going to be a bad scene.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: I know, I know, I'm taking on fantasy football royalty, but 386 touches is 386 touches, and I can't see how it doesn't take him down this year. He had near 50 more carries than the second player on that list, and Michael Turner only had 17 receptions, not 43. The body can only take so much, and expecting MJD to have another 250-point season is nuts.