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Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: Yeah, he's a tantalizing pick considering his spectacular points-per-game numbers. Problem is, his games-per-season is always depressed by some injury. Let someone else deal with scrambling to fill their No. 1 WR slot when Johnson invariably goes down.
Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos: Yeah, he'll probably finish in the top 10 among QBs ... but I guarantee there's at least one overzealous guy in your league who'll reach for him in the third round. You'll be just fine getting Josh Freeman or Ben Roethlisberger in the middle rounds, and you'll have added better receivers/runners in the meantime.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: I was surprised to see he finished sixth among all RBs in 2011. He's now 30, though, and we know what happens when a runner hits that age.
Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were unstoppable last season, and will be again in 2012. This year, though, Welker will have to share catches with a beefed-up stable of wideouts.
Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars: I haven't seen the other fellas' lists, but I bet Tony Romo's best pal in 2011 appears on every one of 'em. Jacksonville hasn't had a big-time pass catcher since the days of Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith. Maybe Justin Blackmon can change that trend. Robinson most certainly can't.
Marques Colston, WR, Saints: I know how consistently productive he's been, but Jimmy Graham is now the top pass catcher in New Orleans. Plus, Drew Brees is gonna have too full a plate -- what with his informal duties of being head coach -- to make sure Colston is happy.