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Posted Aug. 21, 2008

Draft preview: Debating 10 important draft-day questions

By NFL.com staff

Life is all about decisions. Fantasy football is no different.

The decisions you make in your draft, especially in the early to middle rounds, can be the difference between a mediocre team and one that contends for a championship. NFL.com Senior Editor Craig Ellenport, NFL.com Fantasy Editor Michael Fabiano and NFL.com Associate Editor Adam Rank examined some of the most pressing decisions you'll face on draft day and offered their opinions on each player's value for 2008.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady Who should be the first quarterback selected in fantasy drafts? Peyton Manning

2007: 52 TDs
Fabiano: While Brady has little chance to duplicate the 4,806 passing yards and 52 total touchdowns he totaled last season, he'll remain the most valuable quarterback in fantasy football. With Randy Moss and Wes Welker in the pass attack, Brady is almost guaranteed to throw for 35-plus scores in 2008.

Ellenport: Manning and Brady have been taking turns one-upping each other in recent seasons, and now Peyton has the added incentive of showing up his Super Bowl MVP brother. Manning has averaged 4,000 yards and 30 TDs a season over 10 years. Plus, don't be surprised if the Patriots feature a more balanced offense this year as defenses focus more on stopping Brady.

2007: 34 TDs


Carson Palmer Has Roethlisberger passed Palmer after a breakout 2007 season? Ben Roethlisberger

2007: 26 TDs
Ellenport: Even in a relative "down" year, Palmer still threw for 1,000 more yards than Big Ben last season. The Steelers could run the ball more with Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall, while Palmer benefits from the addition of Ben Utecht, the best pass-catching tight end Cincinnati has had in years.

Rank: Roethlisberger had an amazing comeback season in 2007, throwing for 3,154 yards and an impressive 32 touchdown passes. Now imagine what he will do with a tall receiver like rookie Limas Sweed involved in the offense. Unlike Palmer, Big Ben doesn't have to deal with a problematic wide receiver.

2007: 34 TDs


Running backs

LaDainian Tomlinson Has Peterson passed Tomlinson in overall fantasy value for 2008? Adrian Peterson

2007: 18 TDs
Fabiano: Tomlinson has been the best running back in fantasy football over the past two seasons, and there's no reason to believe he won't continue to thrive in 2008. I think Peterson's time is coming, but L.T. has one more monster season ahead of him as the centerpiece of San Diego's offensive attack.

Rank: Peterson is eyeing 2,000 rushing yards this season, but injuries and the lack of a passing game will be a concern. But what running back doesn’t have injury concerns? Even the reliable Tomlinson was injured during last year’s playoffs. The A.P. era is starting, and it’s time for owners to jump aboard.

2007: 13 TDs


Steven Jackson Which running back has more draft value: Jackson or Westbrook? Brian Westbrook

2007: 6 TDs
Ellenport: It was only two seasons ago that Jackson amassed 2,334 total yards and 16 scores. Injuries wrecked the first half of last season, but even on a 3-13 team, Jackson averaged 4.7 yards per carry over the last seven weeks and had three touchdown runs of 46-plus yards.

Fabiano: It's hard to argue with either of these backs, but Westbrook has more value because of his skills as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. With no true No. 1 wideout in Philadelphia, Westbrook should record 70-plus receptions, around 2,000 total yards and double-digit touchdowns.

2007: 12 TDs


Larry Johnson Which running back has more first-round value: Johnson or Gore? Frank Gore

2007: 4 TDs
Fabiano: Johnson will be a risk-reward selection, but I still think he's worth the gamble in Round 1. The addition of rookie OG Branden Albert should improve the offensive line, and I don't think a solid quarterback is required for Johnson to produce. He'll post 1,200-plus rushing yards and solid touchdown totals.

Rank: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz has long been criticized for abandoning the run. While that might be true, Alex Smith is not Kurt Warner. Besides, Marshall Faulk had some of his best years under Martz. Gore is going to be a threat as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield this season.

2007: 6 TDs


Wide receivers

Randy Moss Does Owens warrant consideration as the No. 1 fantasy wideout? Terrell Owens

2007: 23 TDs
Ellenport: If you ignore the two seasons Randy Moss was dogging it in Oakland, then he is perhaps the most consistently dangerous wideout ever. Moss, 31, could easily post the same kind of numbers the immortal Jerry Rice had at the same age: 98 catches, 1,503 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Rank: Owens and Moss have both had off-the-field issues in the past, but only T.O. has recorded consistently solid numbers for every team he has played for at the NFL level. There is no reason to believe that Owens, who is just as talented as Moss, won’t put up similar numbers in a loaded Dallas offense.

2007: 15 TDs


Reggie Wayne Did Edwards pass Wayne in value after a breakout 2007 season? Braylon Edwards

2007: 10 TDs
Rank: The torch has been passed from Marvin Harrison to Wayne, who had career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns in 2008. Look for Wayne to find continued success in his new role, even with a healthy Harrison lined up on the other side of the field. Wayne should be the third receiver drafted.

Fabiano: Edwards was a full-time resident of the end zone in a breakout 2007 season, totaling 16 touchdowns with his 80 catches and 1,289 yards. With Derek Anderson under center in what promises to be a solid Cleveland offense, Edwards should remain a statistical beast for owners.

2007: 16 TDs


Chad Johnson Which Cincinnati wide receiver has more value in fantasy drafts? T.J. Houshmandzadeh

2007: 8 TDs
Ellenport: If not for Johnson's higher expectations and negative image, this wouldn't be a comparison. Sure, Houshmandzadeh is coming off a career year in which he had 12 scores, but Johnson still had 300 more receiving yards, and he's got more touchdowns and yards over the last four seasons.

Rank: When it comes to Cincinnati wide receivers, I'd side with the healthier player, not to mention the one entering a contract year. Houshmandzadeh is just as dangerous a receiving threat as Johnson in any offensive attack, and again, he has the extra motivation of playing for a lucrative contract.

2007: 12 TDs


Tight ends

Antonio Gates Did Witten pass Gates in value after a breakout 2007 season? Jason Witten

2007: 9 TDs
Fabiano: Witten did have a tremendous season in 2007, but Gates has long been the top tight end in fantasy football. He's averaged 79 receptions, 993 yards and 10 touchdowns over the past four seasons and shows no signs of slowing down. Barring setbacks from foot surgery, Gates is the best option.

Ellenport: Gates has reigned as fantasy's top tight end in recent years, but Witten will overtake him in 2008. Witten has emerged as a go-to receiver for Tony Romo and he's capable of taking over a game. Gates, meanwhile, will see his numbers decline with Chris Chambers on the squad for a full season.

2007: 7 TDs


Kellen Winslow Which tight end has more draft value: Winslow or Gonzalez? Tony Gonzalez

2007: 5 TDs
Ellenport: Gonzalez had 17 more receptions than Winslow in 2007, but their yardage and touchdown totals were nearly identical. The difference is that Winslow is far younger, more explosive and a key member of a high-octane offense. Gonzalez could also lose chances with a healthy Larry Johnson.

Rank: Some fantasy football owners might hesitate in drafting Gonzalez because of the Chiefs quarterback situation, but it wasn't exactly stellar last season and he still posted great numbers. With new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey now in the mix, Gonzalez could have an even better year in 2008.

2007: 5 TDs