Broncos at Bills (at 1pm ET)
Start: RB Phillip Lindsay; WR Courtland Sutton; QB Josh Allen; WR John Brown
FLEX: RB Devin Singletary
Sleeper: WR Tim Patrick
Stream: TE Noah Fant
Sit: RB Royce Freeman
Key Game Facts
-- Phillip Lindsay played on a season-high 63 percent of Broncos snaps last week
-- Buffalo has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs over the last five weeks
-- The Bills have allowed a top-21 (RB2 or better) fantasy performance in every game this season
When the Broncos have the ball: Denver made a change in their backfield last week, letting Phillip Lindsay ride as their top option over Royce Freeman. In a newly featured role, Lindsay is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside against this weak Bills run defense. Royce Freeman only has 15 touches in his last two games and Lindsay's emergence as the starter makes Freeman a TD-dependent FLEX option. This is Denver's target distribution in three games since Emmanuel Sanders was traded: Noah Fant (24), Courtland Sutton (22), Tim Patrick (8), Phillip Lindsay (7), and Royce Freeman (4). All of Patrick's targets came last week when he went 4/77 in his return off of injured reserve. Buffalo is obviously a stingy matchup for opposing pass offenses -- they're allowing the 9th-fewest fantasy points to WRs and 2nd-fewest to TEs -- so you're betting on volume and talent alone if you start Sutton or Fant in fantasy this weekend. In their last 12 home games over the last two years, the Bills have held opposing passers to a 7:11 TD-INT ratio. Tre'Davious White will undoubtedly shadow Sutton on Sunday and he can certainly get open for a big play or two, but Buffalo will likely sell out to stop Sutton.
When the Bills have the ball: Fresh off posting 30-burgers in fantasy against Miami last week, Buffalo's matchup is obviously significantly worse in Week 12. It's certainly hard to bench Josh Allen and John Brown when they just hit their ceiling this past week and four solid offenses (Chargers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Cardinals) are out on bye, but we have to temper expectations a bit here. Denver is allowing the 6th-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt this season and Brown will certainly see shadow coverage from Chris Harris Jr. this weekend. Allen is a low-end QB1 start for Week 12 while Brown is a low-end WR2. Devin Singletary has played on two-thirds of Bills snaps in four-straight games, but only has RB17, RB6, RB30, and RB36 weekly fantasy finishes to show for it. Singletary is once again in the RB2 mix but Josh Allen's continued high volume red-zone usage lowers the talented rookie's ceiling.
Giants at Bears (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: RB Saquon Barkley
Start: WR Allen Robinson; WR Golden Tate
FLEX: RB David Montgomery
Injuries to monitor: QB Mitch Trubisky (hip); TE Evan Engram (foot); WR Sterling Shepard (concussion); TE Rhett Ellison (concussion)
Key Game Facts
-- Golden Tate has averaged 8.8 targets per game without Sterling Shepard active this season
-- Tate's fantasy finishes in this span: WR8, WR21, WR18, WR30, and WR7
When the Giants have the ball: It looks like the Giants are going to have Sterling Shepard for the first time since Week 5 but, unfortunately, Evan Engram is set to miss his second consecutive game. The Giants can't seem to get all of their best players healthy at the same time, but Shepard's return will kick Darius Slayton back into the No. 3 slot in the Giants receiver corps. Rhett Ellison also did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and is likely to miss, which will force Kaden Smith and Scott Simonson into some sort of split as the Giants TEs. Golden Tate remains on the WR2/3 radar on volume alone but it's wise to temper expectations for Giants' receivers this week. Chicago's defense is not as dominant as it was last year, but they have limited opposing wideouts to the 4th-fewest yards over the full season and the 3rd-fewest yards over the last five weeks. On that note, there are plenty of better streaming options than Daniel Jones this week.
When the Bears have the ball: At this point, Allen Robinson fantasy owners should hope that Chase Daniel starts over Mitchell Trubisky. Robinson has busted in 2 of his last 3 games as Trubisky continues to meltdown but we have to go back to A-Rob as a WR2 start in this green-light matchup, regardless of who is starting at quarterback. New York is allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points and 2nd-most yards per game to opposing wideouts this season. David Montgomery has scored double-digit fantasy points just five times this season and has needed a touchdown to get there in four of those games. Montgomery's floor remains incredibly low in this brutal offense -- he's been unusable when he hasn't scored -- so the matchup is the only thing that keeps Montgomery on the RB2/FLEX radar for Week 12. The Giants have allowed a top-24 (RB2 or better) fantasy performance in 8-of-10 games this year.
Steelers at Bengals (at 1pm ET)
Start: RB Joe Mixon
PPR FLEX: RB Jaylen Samuels (if Conner DNP)
Sit: WR Tyler Boyd; TE Vance McDonald
Injuries to monitor: RB James Conner (shoulder); WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion, knee); WR Diontae Johnson (concussion); WR Auden Tate (concussion)
Key Game Facts
-- This game has the second-lowest over/under of the week (39 points)
-- The Bengals are implied to score just 16 points, the lowest projection on the slate
When the Steelers have the ball: Pittsburgh is all sorts of banged up this week and will be without both JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner on the road in Cincinnati. Diontae Johnson returned to practice which puts him on track for Week 12, so it'll be James Washington and Johnson as the Steelers top two wideouts on Sunday. The matchup is great, but Washington and Johnson are boom-or-bust WR4 options with Mason Rudolph under center. The same boom-or-bust logic applies to Vance McDonald, who has been far more bust than boom. Without Conner, the Steelers will turn back to their Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and Trey Edmunds backfield committee. Edmunds played 33 snaps and Samuels played 25 after Conner went down last week while Snell is set to return from a knee injury. Samuels has target counts of 13, 7, and 6 over the last three weeks and he's a fantastic FLEX play in PPR season-long leagues for his pass-catching prowess.
When the Bengals have the ball: I'd love to fire up Tyler Boyd in fantasy this week after he complained about his 3 target, 1 catch performance in Oakland last week -- but the film and numbers on Ryan Finley leaves a lot to be desired. Pittsburgh is giving up a league-high 27.5 fantasy points per game to opposing slot wideouts, but it's hard to have faith that Finley is talented enough to exploit this matchup. Finley has taken 7 sacks and completed 29 of 61 passes (47.5 percent) for 4.6 yards per attempt on his 136 snaps over the last two weeks. Joe Mixon has come alive with RB13, RB9, and RB9 fantasy finishes over his last three games and is the only Bengal fantasy managers can confidently start in Week 12. After getting just 10 touches in Week 6 and 11 touches in Week 7, Mixon has been shoveled 21, 32, and 16 touches over his last three contests.
Dolphins at Browns (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: RB Nick Chubb
Start: QB Baker Mayfield; WR Odell Beckham; WR Jarvis Landry; WR DeVante Parker
PPR FLEX: RB Kareem Hunt
Sit: RB Kalen Ballage; TE Mike Gesicki
Injuries to monitor: TE David Njoku (wrist)
Key Game Facts
-- DeVante Parker has finished as the WR32 or better in weekly PPR fantasy points in seven-straight games
-- Parker has scored 124.4 fantasy points this season
-- Odell Beckham: 124.2 fantasy points this season
When the Dolphins have the ball:DeVante Parker has broken out when we all least expected it and is now operating as Miami's clear No. 1 target with Preston Williams (ACL) on injured reserve. Without Williams in the Dolphins last two games, Parker has hit 5/69 and 7/135 receiving lines with 10 targets in each game. Parker is once again a high-end WR3 start for Week 12. For what it's worth, Allen Hurns (118 snaps, 10 targets over the last two weeks) and Albert Wilson (71 snaps, 9 targets) are splitting reps behind Parker in place of Williams. Marcas Grant has been white-hot in his Slots O' Fun segment and named Hurns his sleeper for Week 12. Kalen Ballage has played on a workhorse-level of snaps in his two starts without Mark Walton... but you are on your own if you want to put him in your lineup. Ballage's longest gain on his 64 carries this season has gone 8 yards. He's now averaging 1.9 yards per carry and 3.9 yards per catch.
When the Browns have the ball: Start all of your Browns in fantasy this week! Odell Beckham has double-digit targets in back-to-back games while Jarvis Landry is a great bet to score in his fourth-straight contest in this revenge game. Miami's corners have no chance at slowing down OBJ and Landry. The Browns are going to get a boost with David Njoku eligible to return off of injured reserve this week but I wouldn't feel comfortable inserting him into lineups after he missed over two months of action. It's unclear if Njoku will be able to play close to his full complement of snaps after having surgery on his wrist. Baker Mayfield has put up 17 or more fantasy points in four of his last 5 contests and this matchup clearly makes him this week's top streaming candidate as the Dolphins have given up 20 or more fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks in 7-of-10 games. Kareem Hunt's emergence has lowered Nick Chubb's floor a bit in fantasy, but both RBs are capable of co-existing in this backfield. Chubb has 47 carries to Hunt's 10 over the last two weeks while Hunt has out-targeted Chubb 17 to 5. With Chubb still handling the vast majority of carries, he has explosive upside in this matchup while Hunt's receiving chops make him a PPR FLEX option.
Buccaneers at Falcons (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: QB Matt Ryan; WR Julio Jones; WR Calvin Ridley; WR Mike Evans; WR Chris Godwin
Start: QB Jameis Winston
Beware: RB Ronald Jones
Sit: RB Brian Hill; TE O.J. Howard
Injuries to monitor: RB Devonta Freeman (foot); TE Austin Hooper (knee)
Key Game Facts
-- Ronald Jones' snap rate over the last three weeks: 55 percent; 46 percent; 31 percent
-- Dare Ogunbowale ran more routes than Jones last week after Ronald Jones led TB in routes run in their two previous games
-- Atlanta is the most pass-heavy team in the NFL while Tampa Bay is the 6th-most pass-heavy offense
When the Buccaneers have the ball: After shutting down the Saints and Panthers on the road in back-to-back weeks we'll find out just how legitimate the Falcons defensive turnaround is when they take on turnover-prone Jameis Winston this week. Look, no quarterback throws more YOLO balls than Winston but Winston possesses his usual boom-or-bust QB1 outlook in this likely shootout. Bucs-Falcons has the highest over/under of the slate (51 points). Even though Atlanta's front seven has turned up the heat, their secondary has been ripped up by Michael Thomas (13/152) and D.J. Moore (8/95) in Week 10-11. For what it's worth, both Chris Godwin (12/170/3 combined) and Mike Evans (10/164/2) went off in their two games against Atlanta last year. HC Bruce Arians said that Ronald Jones was their "starter" after he went for 93 scrimmage yards and a score in Week 9, but Jones has seen his snaps cut down in back-to-back games. Jones is still the lead back, but Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale remaining heavily involved severely harms Jones' outlook. After showing signs of life in the flow chart matchup (vs. Arizona) in Week 10, Howard gave away an INT, got benched, and was called out by HC Bruce Arians over the last week.
When the Falcons have the ball: Unfortunately, it looks like Atlanta will be without both Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper for the second straight game. While Brian Hill busted (15 carries, 30 yards) in Freeman's absence in Week 11, Calvin Ridley ripped the Panthers for 143 yards and a score while catching all 8 of his targets against. Both Ridley and Julio Jones are both fantasy WR1's against a Bucs' secondary that is yielding a league-high 46.5 PPR points per game to wideouts. The Bucs run defense was exposed last week but Brian Hill is no Alvin Kamara, so the Falcons likely continued inability to run the ball will lock in another high volume passing day from Matt Ryan. Over the past three seasons, Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards against the Bucs in 5-of-6 meetings and has 2+ TDs in 4-of-6.
Panthers at Saints (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: RB Christian McCaffrey; WR D.J. Moore; RB Alvin Kamara; WR Michael Thomas
Start: QB Drew Brees; TE Jared Cook; TE Greg Olsen; WR Curtis Samuel
Sit: RB Latavius Murray
Key Game Facts
-- Latavius Murray has played on just 31 percent of snaps and averaged 7.5 touches per game in the eight games Alvin Kamara has been active in
-- Murray has seen 10 or more touches just twice with Kamara healthy
-- Kamara has played on 70 percent of Saints snaps since returning from injury in Week 10
When the Panthers have the ball:Christian McCaffrey overcame a horrific 4 INT, 5 sack performance from Kyle Allen last week, posting over 30 PPR points all without scoring a touchdown and further proving that he's the best fantasy RB of this era. There is no way we can go back to Kyle Allen after last week, but D.J. Moore is a borderline must play option with Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) looking likely to suit up. Moore only has one touchdown this year but his target volume is as good as it gets. Only DeAndre Hopkins (35 percent), John Brown (32 percent), and Michael Thomas (32 percent) have seen a higher share of their team's targets over the last five weeks than Moore (30 percent). Curtis Samuel unfortunately flopped last week as a result of Allen's poor performance, but he remains a strong WR3/FLEX option. With Lattimore sidelined, Samuel will run the majority of his routes against CBs Eli Apple and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. After posting just 11/110 receiving in 5 games from Week 4-9, Greg Olsen has come back to the fantasy fold with 8/98 and 5/57 over the last two weeks. Olsen remains a start in this TE wasteland.
When the Saints have the ball: McCaffrey is the RB1 but, I wouldn't be surprised if Alvin Kamara finished Week 12 as the slate's top scorer. Kamara seems overdue for a multiple touchdown game and this is a perfect time for him to get right. Carolina has allowed a league-high 15 rushing scores along with 4.9 yards per carry (fourth-most). The matchup is obviously right, but Latavius Murray's role has been fairly pedestrian when Kamara is fully healthy. While Michael Thomas and Drew Brees should be locked into all lineups this week, Jared Cook quietly remains a quality TE1 start with 10+ fantasy points in four straight games.
Seahawks at Eagles (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: QB Russell Wilson; WR Tyler Lockett
Start: RB Chris Carson; WR D.K. Metcalf; QB Carson Wentz; RB Miles Sanders (if Howard DNP)
Stream: TE Jacob Hollister; TE Dallas Goedert
Injuries to monitor: WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle); RB Jordan Howard (shoulder); WR Nelson Agholor (knee)
Key Game Facts
-- Jacob Hollister ran a route on just 46 percent of Russell Wilson's dropbacks in Weeks 7-8
-- Hollister's usage ticked up significantly in Weeks 9-10, however, as he ran a route on 76 percent of Wilson's dropbacks
-- Miles Sanders' 85 percent snap rate last week was the highest single-game RB usage for HC Doug Pederson since he was hired in 2016
When the Seahawks have the ball: Seattle will always try to establish the run first, but Philadelphia's stout front seven should force Russell Wilson to the air early and often in this matchup. Both Wilson and Lockett are top-5 plays at their position against the Eagles' beatable secondary. D.K. Metcalf has now scored over 11 fantasy points in five of his last six games and he is a strong WR2 start this week. Philadelphia allows the second-most PPR points to opposing receivers alined out wide and that's where Metcalf runs 88 percent of his routes. Even though the Eagles are allowing just 3.4 YPC (second-lowest), Chris Carson is an RB1 start on volume alone for Week 12. Carson is a true bell-cow, averaging 24.5 touches on an 81 percent snap rate over his last seven games. Jacob Hollister remains a great TE1 streamer after his snaps ticked up dramatically in Weeks 9-10 before Seattle's bye.
When the Eagles have the ball: With QB25, QB8, QB25, QB19, QB17, and QB20 weekly results in fantasy over his last six games, Carson Wentz has been a pedestrian fantasy QB as he continues to deal with the Eagles banged up WR corps. The good news is that both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor appear likely to play on Sunday but all of the Eagles injuries have forced Dallas Goedert into a near full-time role as HC Doug Pederson continues to heavily rely on 2-TE sets as the base of their offense. Goedert has played over 70 percent of Colts snaps in four of his last five games and he's averaged 11.7 PPR points per contest in this span. Goedert is a fantastic streamer against a Seattle defense that is quietly coughing up the 9th-most fantasy points and 5th-most yards per game to opposing TEs. Predictably, Philadelphia's issues at receiver have Zach Ertz back into a high-volume role. Ertz has seen 11 targets in back-to-back games, putting up 9/103/1 and 9/94 stat lines along the way. I'm going back to Wentz as a QB1 this week in what should be an extremely TE-heavy game plan against Seattle. As for the frustrating Eagles run game... Jordan Howard returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday and he seems like a true game-time call. If Howard misses a second straight game, I'd be willing to go back to Sanders as a FLEX option this weekend but would try to avoid this backfield all together if Howard is active. The box score results weren't pretty, but Sanders played nearly every snap for the Eagles in Week 11.
Lions at Redskins (at 1pm ET)
Start and pray: WR Kenny Golladay; WR Marvin Jones
Deep Streamer: QB Jeff Driskel
Sit: WR Terry McLaurin; TE T.J. Hockenson
Injuries to monitor: QB Matthew Stafford (back)
Key Game Facts
-- Terry McLaurin averaged 17.6 PPR points in Case Keenum's five full starts this season
-- In four other games with Keenum limited or Haskins starting, McLaurin has averaged just 8.5 PPG
-- Kenny Golladay has caught just 4 of his 14 targets from Jeff Driskel over the last two weeks (28.6 percent catch rate)
When the Lions have the ball: Detroit will be without Matthew Stafford for the third consecutive game, bringing Jeff Driskel back into the streaming fold in deeper leagues. However, with Driskel under center, both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones remain bet-on-talent WR2 options. Jones has been living off of touchdowns for his fantasy value this season and, at the very least, his usage remains consistent. Jones has seen at least one red-zone target in seven of his last 8 games. Detroit's backfield has been the opposite of consistent this season after Bo Scarbrough was randomly elevated to starter status in Week 11. Scarbrough led Detroit in carries (14) and snaps (50 percent) last week but Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic are going to mix in and play almost every single passing down, rendering Scarbrough a desperation RB3 option only.
When the Redskins have the ball: Not only has Terry McLaurin's production dipped significantly when Case Keenum does not start, he'll be shadowed by Lions top CB Darius Slay on Sunday. McLaurin is certainly talented enough to beat Slay a few times but the matchup combined with the Redskins QB situation makes McLaurin a Week 12 fade. Frankly, you'd be wise to fade this Redskins team for fantasy altogether this week outside of perhaps starting Derrius Guice in the FLEX spot. With Adrian Peterson (ankle, toe) banged up and Chris Thompson questionable, we'll likely see Guice's snaps and touches tick up in his second game back from knee injury.
Raiders at Jets (at 1pm ET)
Start: RB Le'Veon Bell; WR Jamison Crowder; RB Josh Jacobs; TE Darren Waller; WR Tyrell Williams
Stream: QB Derek Carr; QB Sam Darnold; TE Ryan Griffin
PPR Sleeper: WR Hunter Renfrow
Sit: WR Robby Anderson
Key Game Facts
-- Josh Jacobs has finished as the RB22 or better in six of his last 7 games
-- Jacobs is averaging 23.2 touches per game in this span
When the Raiders have the ball: Even though the Jets' run defense is tough (3.0 YPC allowed; lowest in NFL), we can safely bet on Josh Jacobs' volume in this matchup. Jacobs has 15 or more carries in seven straight games. The Jets secondary is far easier to exploit and the Raiders path to success in this game may come mostly through the air. Five of the last six QBs to face the Jets have logged QB13 or better fantasy results (including Dwayne Haskins) as four straight passers have tossed at least 2 TDs against them. Carr, Williams, and Waller are all start-able in fantasy this week in this soft matchup and even Hunter Renfrow has PPR sleeper appeal after tagging usable stat lines of 4/88, 6/54/1, 4/42, and 5/66 over the last month.
When the Jets have the ball: It certainly hasn't been pretty to watch at times, but volume alone is keeping Le'Veon Bell's fantasy outlook alive. Bell has seen at least 20 touches in each game over the last three weeks and has RB9, RB10, and RB10 fantasy finishes to show for it. Jamison Crowder has been Sam Darnold's go-to guy this season and he is a borderline must-play in PPR leagues this week. Crowder has gone over 70 yards in five of Darnold's seven starts this year and now gets one of the best matchups he'll see all season. The Raiders are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers and that's where Crowder runs the majority of his routes. Darnold has logged back-to-back QB7 finishes in fantasy and he remains on the streaming radar in this matchup along with Ryan Griffin. This year, Oakland has allowed the 7th-most passing yards per game and 5th-most fantasy points per game to TEs.
Jaguars at Titans (at 4:05pm ET)
Must Play: RB Derrick Henry
Start: RB Leonard Fournette; WR D.J. Chark
Deep Streamer: QB Nick Foles; QB Ryan Tannehill
Sit: WR Dede Westbrook; WR A.J. Brown
Injuries to monitor: WR Corey Davis (hip); TE Delanie Walker (ankle)
Key Game Facts
-- The Titans have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs over the last five weeks
-- D.J. Chark had 4/76/1 when these two teams met back in Week 3
-- Nick Foles' target distribution on 55 attempts so far this year is: Chark (17), Chris Conley (10), Leonard Fournette (9), Dede Westbrook (6)
When the Jaguars have the ball:Leonard Fournette had one of his worst games of the season last week and still came away with 12.7 points in PPR leagues. Fournette has now scored at least 12 fantasy points in all 10 of his games this season and he remains a strong (positive) TD regression candidate on his absurd volume. Fournette is 6th in the NFL in red-zone carries and is one of 10 RBs with at least 25 inside-20 totes, but he's the only back in this group with fewer than 4 touchdowns (Fournette has just one score). D.J. Chark is an awesome play in fantasy every week, but he has a mouth-watering ceiling in Week 12 against this Titans secondary that has really struggled as of late. There are only 5-6 receivers I'd start over Chark this weekend.
When the Titans have the ball: With Corey Davis set to return after Tennessee's bye, the Titans will have all of their pass catchers back healthy. Unfortunately, there is no way you can plug in a Titans receiver into your lineup this weekend and feel great about it. I'm fully expecting Ryan Tannehill to spread the ball around between Brown, Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries this week. We can, however, feel great about Derrick Henry in this matchup. Jacksonville's run defense has fallen apart over their last two games, giving up a whopping 409 yards and three TDs on just 56 carries (7.3 YPC) to Texans and Colts back in Week 9 and 11. The Jags' are now giving up a league-high 5.4 yards per carry to RBs this season and rank 30th in FootballOutsiders run defense DVOA metrics. Derrick Henry is a top-5 RB play on this slate.
Cowboys at Patriots (at 4:30pm ET)
Start: QB Dak Prescott; RB Ezekiel Elliott; WR Amari Cooper; WR Michael Gallup; WR Julian Edelman
PPR FLEX: RB James White
Beware: QB Tom Brady
Sit: RB Sony Michel; TE Jason Witten; WR Randall Cobb
Injuries to monitor: WR Phillip Dorsett (concussion); WR Mohamed Sanu (ankle)
Key Game Facts
-- Tom Brady's last four fantasy finishes are QB19, QB13, QB20, and QB23
-- Brady is on pace to attempt 643 passes this season, which would be most of his career
-- Brady's 6.85 yards per pass attempt is the second-lowest figure of his career
When the Cowboys have the ball: Going into Foxboro to face this fantastic Patriots defense is a tall task, but Dallas is one of a few teams that have the talent to match up with New England. With Amari Cooper getting closer to 100 percent after dealing with a midseason knee injury and Michael Gallup continuing to develop into a star in his own right, Dak Prescott and Co. certainly present the Pats with their toughest task of the season. I'm riding with Prescott as a QB1 and trusting both Cooper and Gallup as WR2 starts in fantasy this week. Randall Cobb has come alive with 6/35, 6/101/1, and 4/115/1 over his last three games -- but he has a brutal individual draw this week. Pats' slot CB Jonathan Jones has allowed the fewest fantasy points per route (0.15) among qualified cornerbacks this season, per PFF.
When the Patriots have the ball: With Mohamed Sanu dealing with a balky ankle and Phillip Dorsett still in concussion protocol, New England's pass-catching corps is one to avoid outside of slot man Julian Edelman. Even though this Pats' offense is more pass-heavy than ever, we have to beware of Tom Brady in this matchup. Dallas has done a great job at limiting opposing wideouts all year -- they're allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position -- and Brady may have to rely on rookies N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers if Sanu and Dorsett can't suit up. The Patriots backfield is equally messy this week and outside of putting James White in his usual spot in the FLEX, Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead both remain fantasy fades. Since Burkhead returned three games ago, the Patriots have split snaps fairly evenly (White - 88; Michel - 65; Burkhead - 58).
Packers at 49ers (at 8:20pm ET)
Start: QB Aaron Rodgers; RB Aaron Jones; WR Davante Adams; RB Tevin Coleman
Sneaky FLEX: RB Raheem Mostert; RB Jamaal Williams
Sit: QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Injuries to monitor: RB Matt Breida (ankle); WR Emmanuel Sanders (rib); TE George Kittle (knee, ankle); WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder)
Key Game Facts
-- Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert split snaps (37 to 35) and routes run (19 to 19) right down the middle without Matt Breida in Week 11
-- However, Coleman had 15 touches to Mostert's 8 last week
-- Deebo Samuel ranks fifth among wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception as 57 percent of his yardage has come after the catch (third-most)
When the Packers have the ball:Aaron Rodgers hasn't been an elite fantasy quarterback for multiple years now, but he's nearly impossible to bench with four good offenses out on a bye. I'd stream Baker Mayfield over Rodgers, but it's very difficult to make a case for the likes of Derek Carr or Nick Foles over Rodgers. The matchup is equally tough for Davante Adams, but you must ride with him in your lineups this week. Adams saw double-digit targets in both Week 9 and 10 and Green Bay will undoubtedly move him all over its formation to get Adams the best looks possible. You can continue to ignore all of the Packers other pass-catchers in fantasy. Passing against the 'Niners is extremely difficult, yet their run defense has cracked a bit over the last month after giving up 14/117/1 on the ground to Christian McCaffrey, 15/110/1 and 16/67 to Kenyan Drake, and 25/89/1 to Chris Carson. Aaron Jones is a confident RB1 start this week while Jamaal Williams has averaged 11.3 touches per game over his last five games, giving him low-end FLEX appeal.
When the 49ers have the ball: Barring a surprise, it looks like San Francisco will have both Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel active for Sunday Night while George Kittle is finally trending in the right direction after missing two games. Kittle sounded optimistic about his game status earlier this week saying that his return to practice "went really well." Hopefully, we'll have some definitive news on Kittle's status this weekend so we can confidently lock him into lineups. Even though Sanders and Samuel are both likely less than 100 percent, both have WR3 appeal in this matchup. The Packers secondary quietly showed signs of cracking before their Week 11 bye, allowing a monster 35 catches for 509 yards to Chiefs, Chargers, and Panthers wideouts in Week 8-10. On a run-first team against a weak run defense, I'm not confident the volume and subsequent production will be there for Jimmy Garoppolo this week. Green Bay is allowing the sixth-most yards per carry and rank fifth-worst in FootballOutsiders run defense DVOA metrics this season -- giving Tevin Coleman a sky-high ceiling on Sunday night. Even with Matt Breida likely out this week, I'm expecting HC Kyle Shanahan to rely heavily on his rush attack against one of the league's worst run defenses. Coleman is an RB2 start with RB1 upside this week while Raheem Mostert is a sneaky FLEX choice if you're desperate.
Ravens at Rams (at 8:15pm ET; on Monday Night)
Must Play: QB Lamar Jackson
Start: RB Todd Gurley; WR Cooper Kupp; RB Mark Ingram; TE Mark Andrews
Beware: TE Gerald Everett
Sit: WR Marquise Brown; QB Jared Goff; WR Brandin Cooks; WR Robert Woods
Key Game Facts
-- Gerald Everett's game log over the last six weeks is the definition of roller coaster: 7/136, 2/9, 4/50/1, 2/15, 8/68, 1/20
-- The Ravens have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs this year
-- Over the last five weeks, Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs
When the Ravens have the ball: Matchups do not matter when you're Lamar Jackson and the betting markets are showing their respect this week. Outside of a meaningless Week 17 game against the 49ers in 2017, this is the first time the Rams have been home underdogs in the Sean McVay era. The Rams have been tough against the run all year long, but there is simply no easy way to prepare for what Lamar Jackson throws at you. Jackson should crush again this week and his explosive ability will always set Mark Ingram up for red-zone scores. Ingram is a rock-solid RB2 start this week while Mark Andrews needs to be locked into all fantasy lineups this weekend. The Rams have quietly allowed six top-10 fantasy finishes to tight ends this year and have given up the eighth-most yards per game to the position over their last six games. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown is clearly less than 100 percent healthy and now has to do battle with Jalen Ramsey. No thank you. Seth Roberts, Willie Snead, and Miles Boykin will operate as the Ravens top wideouts if Brown is limited once again.
When the Rams have the ball:Jared Goff is going to get Brandin Cooks back, and Robert Woods is set to return after missing a game, but fantasy managers can't be confident that Goff can beat this white-hot Ravens defense. Baltimore has allowed a lowly 5.9 yards per pass attempt and forced 10 sacks against Tom Brady, Ryan Finley, and Deshaun Watson since returning from their Week 8 bye. We know that Jared Goff tends to meltdown when he's pressured and Baltimore is one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the league, sending five or more pass rushers on 47 percent of pass plays this season (second-most). Outside of betting on Todd Gurley's volume and Cooper Kupp's talent, this entire Rams team is a full-on fantasy fade in Week 12.
- -- Graham Barfield is a fantasy editor and analyst for NFL.com. Catch him on the NFL Fantasy Football podcast with Marcas Grant and Michael Fabiano, Fantasy LIVE on NFL Network, watch him on Fantasy League One, and follow him on Twitter @GrahamBarfield. *
