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Fantasy Points Allowed: 2019 Lookahead

Published: Apr 17, 2019 at 08:38 AM
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Michael Fabiano

The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's simple to understand ... take the opponents' records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage for all 16 opponents. In fantasy football, there's a different method. Instead of using team records, we use the number of fantasy points allowed by defenses the previous season against a single position (both at home and on the road) and rank the teams/players according to the average.

For example, the Kansas City Chiefs allowed 19.92 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks overall last season. However, their defense was much tougher at home (14.38 PPG allowed) than on the road (23.35 PPG allowed). As a result, any home quarterback who faces the Chiefs in 2019 receives 23.35 points, while opposing signal-callers in road games receive 14.38 points. This goes one step deeper than typical FPA analysis, which is based on a total average of the home and road numbers. Obviously, the bigger the overall point total per team, the easier the schedule.

While these ratings are not the be-all, end-all in determining a player's stock, owners can use them when picking between players with similar value and projecting potential sleepers or busts.

Quarterbacks

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18.79
  1. Seattle Seahawks: 18.49
  1. New Orleans Saints: 18.35
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 18.30
  1. Los Angeles Rams: 18.03
  1. Baltimore Ravens: 17.94
  1. Arizona Cardinals: 17.88
  1. Tennessee Titans: 17.84
  1. Chicago Bears: 17.74
  1. San Francisco 49ers: 17.68
  1. Dallas Cowboys: 17.64
  1. Carolina Panthers: 17.53
  1. Buffalo Bills: 17.52
  1. New England Patriots: 17.46
  1. New York Giants: 17.43
  1. Cincinnati Bengals: 17.36
  1. Indianapolis Colts: 17.34
  1. Atlanta Falcons: 17.17
  1. Los Angeles Chargers: 17.13
  1. Detroit Lions: 16.96
  1. Houston Texans: 16.83
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 16.80

T-23. Cleveland Browns: 16.76

T-23. Miami Dolphins: 16.76

  1. New York Jets: 16.74
  1. Oakland Raiders: 16.43
  1. Kansas City Chiefs: 16.42
  1. Washington Redskins: 16.42
  1. Minnesota Vikings: 16.31
  1. Philadelphia Eagles: 16.24
  1. Green Bay Packers: 16.18
  1. Denver Broncos: 16.07

Running backs

  1. Baltimore Ravens: 25.83
  1. Seattle Seahawks: 25.36
  1. Los Angeles Rams: 25.28
  1. Tennessee Titans: 25.21
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 25.11
  1. Miami Dolphins: 25.04
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 24.94
  1. Detroit Lions: 24.85
  1. New England Patriots: 24.76
  1. New York Giants: 24.69
  1. San Francisco 49ers: 24.67
  1. Chicago Bears: 24.63
  1. Buffalo Bills: 24.60
  1. Cincinnati Bengals: 24.47
  1. Philadelphia Eagles: 24.36

T-16. Dallas Cowboys: 24.27

T-16. Minnesota Vikings: 24.27

  1. Arizona Cardinals: 24.22
  1. New Orleans Saints: 24.17

T-20. Cleveland Browns: 24.10

T-20. Oakland Raiders: 24.10

  1. Carolina Panthers: 24.04
  1. Denver Broncos: 24.02
  1. New York Jets: 23.98
  1. Washington Redskins: 23.95
  1. Los Angeles Chargers: 23.92
  1. Green Bay Packers: 23.76
  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 23.62
  1. Atlanta Falcons: 23.39
  1. Kansas City Chiefs: 22.98
  1. Houston Texans: 22.67
  1. Indianapolis Colts: 22.59

Wide receivers

  1. Carolina Panthers: 37.76
  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 37.64
  1. Dallas Cowboys: 37.10
  1. New York Giants: 36.91
  1. Seattle Seahawks: 36.90
  1. San Francisco 49ers: 36.81
  1. New Orleans Saints: 36.69
  1. Los Angeles Rams: 36.59
  1. Baltimore Ravens: 36.31
  1. Arizona Cardinals: 36.24
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 36.20
  1. Buffalo Bills: 36.11
  1. Chicago Bears: 35.80
  1. New England Patriots: 35.75
  1. Cincinnati Bengals: 35.26
  1. Detroit Lions: 35.23
  1. Atlanta Falcons: 35.13
  1. Indianapolis Colts: 34.97
  1. Minnesota Vikings: 34.96
  1. Miami Dolphins: 34.79
  1. Washington Redskins: 34.74
  1. Cleveland Browns: 34.69
  1. Los Angeles Chargers: 34.50
  1. Tennessee Titans: 34.38
  1. Oakland Raiders: 34.04
  1. New York Jets: 33.85
  1. Philadelphia Eagles: 33.84
  1. Houston Texans: 33.79
  1. Green Bay Packers: 33.37
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 33.36
  1. Kansas City Chiefs: 33.24
  1. Denver Broncos: 32.71

Tight ends

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on **Twitter**, **Facebook**, **YouTube** and **Instagram** for all of the latest fantasy football news, notes and in-depth analysis!

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