Every season, we do our best to predict who the big sleepers and breakout candidates are going to be. Every season, we get a few of them wrong -- very wrong. But just because a certain player goes bust one year doesn't mean they'll be a bust forever. Welcome to "Bust-a-Move", where we're breaking down some of 2015's biggest fantasy football disappointments to determine if you can expect some stat sheet salvation in 2016.
Teddy Bridgewater was no one's elite fantasy quarterback after his rookie season in 2014. But it seemed that there was a gleam of something there. Plenty of people -- including yours truly -- thought that bigger and better things were coming for the young Vikings quarterback in his second season. One year later and we're still waiting.
Bridgewater didn't show much improvement from the previous season. In fact, he regressed in some categories. Anyone who spent a late round sleeper pick on Teddy B knows that he didn't exactly deliver on that promise.
So is Teddy Bridgewater who we thought he was ... in either direction? This is Bust-a-Move, so you probably know the drill by now. I dug into some of Bridgewater's game tape to see what we can expect from the young signal-caller in 2016.
What went wrong
As I was loading up video from last season, I was trying to find some appropriate music as background. After watching a few minutes of Bridgewater from last season, the answer was clear...
I then spent the next several minutes pulling myself out of a Cowboy Bebop rabbit hole. But back to Bridgewater. When you watch him, everything looks so solid -- from his command at the line of scrimmage to his presence in the pocket. Then he lets the ball go ... and you're never sure what will happen next.
Coming out of Louisville, accuracy was arguably Bridgewater's greatest asset. So far in the NFL, it's been one of his bigger liabilities. Actually, that's not totally true. Bridgewater is excellent in short and intermediate ranges, completing better than 69 percent of his throws under 20 yards. It's when the Vikings quarterback looked deeper that things started to go awry.
Bridgewater was accurate on just 33 percent of throws over 20 yards during his first two NFL seasons, which actually is at the league average for that period. Yet for Teddy, that seems to have him a little hesitant about trying to push the ball down the field. Last year, Bridgewater looked deep just 39 times in 16 games. The year before, he took 37 shots downfield in two fewer games.
Instead Bridgewater seemed content to work underneath and finished the season with an Alex Smithian average of just 7.2 air yards per attempt, tied for 28th in the NFL last year. To be fair, Smith posted just 6.8 air yards per attempt. The difference between the two is that Smith can be counted on to add a respectable rushing total. Bridgewater? Not so much. That explains why the Chiefs quarterback finished in the top 15 last season while the Vikings signal-caller barely crept into the top 25.
It also partially solves the mystery of how a staring quarterback in today's pass-friendly NFL can throw just 14 touchdowns in a 16-game season. The other solution includes what comes next.
What must improve
It would be wonderful if Teddy Bridgewater woke up one day in the next few weeks, had a sip of some Matthew Stafford Moxie Juice and decided that he was going to cut it loose down the field this season. It would be equally wonderful if the Vikings could find a wideout or two that could make some plays down the field. Mike Wallace never materialized as a consistent deep threat (continuing a theme that began during his Dolphins tenure), Stefon Diggs was most effective as an underneath receiver and Charles Johnson mostly disappeared.
This is where there could be pressure on Laquon Treadwell to quickly get in gear. While the rookie isn't known for his long speed (lest we forget the turmoil that erupted over his 40 time at the combine), he did show the ability to be a downfield threat during his college career. Treadwell might not need to take the top off of defenses as long as he can consistently win jump balls. If that's the case, hopefully it gives Bridgewater the confidence to go down the field a little more often.
What we expect
In the words of Jay-Z, "you was who you was 'fore you got here." At this point, it's hard to imagine Bridgewater is going to completely change who he has been in his first two seasons. Guys like Stafford, Jay Cutler and Jameis Winston (among others) have never had qualms about chucking it deep. At some point we might need to just expect that Bridgewater isn't going to be that guy. We've already settled into the realization that he isn't going to run a lot, even going back to his days in college. That just means he'll need to have some playmaking receivers to make up for what the quarterback isn't doing through the air. Maybe it happens in a big way this year, but I wouldn't count on it.
Verdict: Last year, there was reason to think Bridgewater was ready to take the next step as a fantasy quarterback. This year, I have no such illusions. With the depth at the position, there's no real reason to think about drafting Bridgewater until he shows some inkling of being a fantasy relevant signal-caller. By all means take a chance on players like Treadwell and Diggs. But until Bridgewater has shown more of an inclination to the pass, you should pass on him.
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Marcas Grant is a fantasy editor for NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter @MarcasG.
