That's why I helped create a system that predicts player performance and provides the actual strength of an opponent and actual player production values. When used, this sytem has proven to be up to 37 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.
The system gives you a "Player Rating," "Defense Rating," and a "Matchup Rating." The ratings are based on the most advanced and accurate mathematical algorithm in fantasy football, and take into account the following factors:
» Adjusted Player scoring based on strength of their previous opponents *
*» Adjusted Defense scoring based on the strength of the players they have faced at each position *
*» Whether the player and/or defense plays better at home or away *
*» How the player compares against other players within their same position *
*» How defenses compare against other defenses against the same positions *
*» ... and many more!
Sound complicated? Don't worry -- it's simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player, defense or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. That's it. Leave the number crunching to the geeks.
Use this system as the basis for your fantasy decisions to take the guesswork out of winning in fantasy football and get the edge on the competition.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The defense ratings for this week are based on numbers from the first six weeks of the 2014 regular season. "Statistically" a three week data sample out of a 16 week fantasy season is enough to draw valuable conclusions. The data continues to become more accurate each week. Plan on coming back for fresh algorithm-based ratings that you cannot get anywhere else!
Weekly Matchup Ranges
This chart shows the BEST and WORST defensive ratings against each position as of Week 7. The higher the number, the better the matchup:
Legend
Here's an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. "best") they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:
Expect More:
Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent compared to their inability to overcome a strong opponent.
QB
Who could have thought that Brian Hoyer would be a top-20 fantasy quarterback at the half way point of the fantasy season? Well, Hoyer is fourth in yards per pass attempt, has the fourth-lowest interception percentage and leads the NFL in completions of passes thrown 10 or more yards downfield. Much of that credit can go to Hoyer's offensive line, which leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency. Hoyer has faced his two toughest matchups of the season already and didn't do too poorly against them. This week he faces his second-easiest matchup of the season against the Jaguars defense which is the sixth-easiest rated matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. Opposing passers are completing 68.7 percent of their passes against the Jags (fourth in NFL) and 69.72 percent of them over the last three games (second in NFL). Four quarterbacks rated lower than Hoyer have scored more than 15 fantasy points against Jacksonville this season. Since Hoyer's fantasy point average is 15 a game, owners can "expect more" from him this week. Forecast:Hoyer finishes the season with eight out of 10 easy matchups and no more "worst" rated matchups. He makes for a good backup stash after this week or even a great spot-start against the Buccaneers in Week 9. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
Alex Smith has served as a quality quarterback streamer and a good QB2 in two-quarterback leagues. He is the 16th-rated fantasy quarterback so far this season and can be considered one of the "safest" quarterbacks in the NFL. If you factor out dropped passes and throwaways, Smith actually leads the NFL in passing accuracy. Smith has already faced his two most difficult matchups of the season and happened to perform well against one of them. He has yet to face a single easy matchup and still averages over 16 fantasy points a game. This week he faces the Chargers who appear to be the fantasy points against (FPA) 11th-toughest ranked defense for opposing quarterbacks, but the algorithm adjusts them to actually be the eighth-EASIEST matchup. This is a result of the poor ratings of the quarterbacks that have already produced fantasy points against them. If you add Smith to a list of the six quarterbacks that have already faced the Chargers, his player rating would be the third-highest of the group and the player rated fourth (Blake Bortles) already scored 12 fantasy points against them in Week 4. Considering Smith has only scored fewer than 12 fantasy points once this season, he's a good bet to exceed his usual production in this matchup. Forecast: The worst of the season is behind Smith. His bye week marked the point of the season where he finally begins to see some easy matchups. He has four straight easy matchups against top-12 easy rated defenses through Week 10. If you want a safe quarterback as your backup after this week or if you are in two-quarterback leagues, Smith is a smart stash moving forward. [Recommended Usage: QB2]
Jake Locker has put together another disappointing fantasy season as he continues to have trouble staying on the field. The Titans expect Locker back this week and he could actually serve as a good QB2 or daily fantasy option against an extremely poor Redskins defense. Opposing offenses are completing 65.3 percent of their passes over the last three games against Washington, making them the No. 1 easiest-rated defense for opposing fantasy quarterbacks. It should also be noted that the gap between the No.1 and No. 2 rated defense is huge. The Redskins get such a poor rating because they give up tons of fantasy production to low-rated opposing quarterbacks. If you add Locker to a list of the six quarterbacks that have already faced the Redskins, his player rating would be the second-highest of the group and the player rated third (Eli Manning) already scored 32 fantasy points against them in Week 4. Forecast: This week represents the best matchup of the season for Locker. He does enjoy five more "better" matchups between now and Week 16, but competitive fantasy teams will not be relying on Locker in the playoff weeks. If you want to take a chance on him again next week, he gets another top-10 matchup against the Texans. However, this is likely a one-week start. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
RB
Frank Gore owners were likely a bit frustrated last week when they expected Gore to produce against the Rams. Yet, if you look inside the real numbers you find that the Rams were a top-eight defense against fantasy running backs and were actually the second-toughest matchup of the season for Gore. Gore has faced five straight "bad" rated defenses this season and has averaged over 10 fantasy points per game against them. This is good fantasy production and would normally give him a higher player rating, but he had his third-lowest point total against his only easy matchup of the year in Week 1. This week he has a sneaky good matchup against the Broncos. Those that errantly follow FPA rankings will see the Broncos ranked as the 12th-easiest opposing defense for fantasy running backs, but the algorithm shows us that they are actually the No. 1 easiest matchup. Three straight running backs have produced 20-plus fantasy points against the Broncos and the worst point total for a lead running back has been nine fantasy points, which is Gore's per game average. Forecast:If you get good production from Gore this week, then consider trying to trade him. After his bye next week, he has five tough matchups left including a brutal stretch of four of five "worst" rated matchups between Week 12 and Week 16. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
Justin Forsett appears to have risen to the top of a Ravens running back depth chart which has three backs with 30 or more rushing attempts. It is a tricky situation to predict, but Forsett has clearly been the most productive in recent weeks. The algorithm can be helpful here as it gives the highest player rating of the group to Forsett. This means he has made the most of his touches and performed well against good matchups. This is an important situation to watch since this week the Ravens face the Falcons defense which is the second-easiest matchup for opposing running backs. Granted, Forsett only scored one fantasy point against the third-rated Colts in Week 5, but he only played five snaps in that game. The algorithm accounts for all of this. The Falcons give up the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing rushers and 63 percent of their opponents' touchdowns have been on the ground, the highest percentage in the NFL. This matchup alone should help Forsett easily exceed his eight fantasy points per game average. Forecast: After this week's epic matchup, Forsett faces four straight easy matchups with a BYE week mixed in on Week 11. His fantasy playoff schedule is ugly with three straight bad matchups starting in Week 13. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
Jeremy Hill has been one of the most consistent "backups" in fantasy football, so much so that he should really not even be considered a backup. Hill is a top-20 rated fantasy running back according to the algorithm and has produced well with minimal opportunities, which is reflected by his .473 fantasy points per snap (FPPS) number (fourth-highest of any running back). When inside the opponent's 5-yard line, Hill leads the league in rushing yards and is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns. This red-zone effectiveness gives Hill consistent scoring potential regardless of his touches. This week he faces the Colts defense, which is the third-easiest rated matchup for fantasy rushers. The Colts give up the third-most rushing touchdowns per game, and Hill is a touchdown-scoring back. He has averaged over 10 fantasy points per game against "best" rated defenses and this is the fourth "best" rated defense he will face this year. Forecast: Hill's best matchups were all in the first half of the season. The Colts are his last "best" rated matchup until Week 16. He has three straight "bad" matchups coming up Weeks 8 through 10. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
WR
Justin Hunter has seen exactly five targets a week since Week 4, while still playing over 90 percent of the snaps. Even in limited playing time, Hunter is the 10th-most targeted wide receiver in passes over 20 yards. Hunter is a big-play receiver that can take advantage of a good matchup. His best game of the season came against his only "best" rated matchup back in Week 5 against the Browns. With six catches and 176 receiving yards in his last two games, it hasn't mattered whether Jake Locker or Charlie Whitehurst is his quarterback. This week Hunter gets his chance against a Redskins defense that has been friendly to opposing wide receivers, especially playmakers like Hunter. The Redskins are the seventh-easiest matchup for opposing fantasy receivers and gave up double digit fantasy points to two different receivers last week. Hunter is a good flier or a daily fantasy play this week. Forecast: Hunter is purely a deep-league matchup play this week and can go back to benches as he faces three of four "bad" rated defenses Weeks 8 through 14. He has another great matchup in Week 12 against the Eagles, so he can serve as a good bye week fill-in for any teams with wide receivers on either the Panthers or the Steelers. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
Torrey Smith came back from the fantasy dead in Week 6 after coach John Harbaugh indicated the Ravens would focus on getting him more involved in the passing game. Smith actually played fewer snaps than normal last week and was even targeted less than he'd been in half his games this season, but he scored big. The Ravens took advantage of the easiest matchup for opposing fantasy passing attacks last week, and both Smith and Steve Smith Sr. had big games. This week, Torrey Smith faces the Falcons who are the fifth-easiest matchup for opposing fantasy receivers, despite their middle of the pack FPA ranking. Smith did have another similar matchup in Week 3 and only produced 2.5 fantasy points, but his increased focus in the Ravens' passing game should help him exceed his six fantasy point per game average and allow his owners to "expect more" from him this week. Forecast:Smith's mid-season resurgence will mostly be matchup-based. After facing two straight top-three easy matchups he gets the Bengals third-toughest defense in Week 8, followed by two more "bad" rated defenses. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
TE
If you are looking for a desperation tight end or a sneaky daily fantasy play this week, you should consider a one-week add of Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham. With A.J. Green out of the lineup, Gresham has become the No. 2 option in the Bengals passing game. He was targeted seven times in Week 6 and scored six fantasy points. This week he faces the Colts who are the second-easiest matchup for opposing tight ends. If you add Gresham to a list of the seven tight ends that have already faced the Colts, his player rating would be the third highest of the group and the player rated fourth (Delanie Walker) already scored 14 fantasy points against them in Week 4. Forecast:Gresham will not have long-term hold value as he faces six tough matchups out of his remaining eight games, including a "worst" rated matchup against the Ravens in Week 8. [Recommended Usage: TE2]
D/ST
BUF vs. MIN: The Bills' defense has mostly been off the fantasy radar despite only having two unproductive games so far this season, both of which came against high-powered offenses. This week, they are at home and face a struggling Vikings offense that gives up just under four sacks and 1.5 interceptions a game (most in the NFL) and average less than 18 points per contest.
CLE at JAC: The Browns are starting one of the best three game stretches for any fantasy defense this week as they travel to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that is desperately trying to put together some offense. Although the Browns have had issues forcing turnovers, they have been getting sacks and the Jaguars give up 4.5 sacks and 1.3 interceptions per game, the third-most in the NFL. The Jags also only score an average of 13.5 points per game. Start the Browns and stash them for two more upcoming matchups against the Raiders and the Buccaneers.
WAS vs. TEN: The Redskins have been getting lit up against opponent's passing games but have been one of the league's best against the run. The Titans bring a poor run game and either a backup or injured quarterback. The Titans offense scores less than 18 points per game and gives up just under three sacks and one interception to each opposing defense they face.
Expect Less:
Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.
QB
Drew Brees has had a tough start to 2014, but still remains an algorithm top-10 rated fantasy quarterback. Part of his slow start comes from facing four "bad" rated matchups in his first five games. However, he has also faced his easiest matchup of the year (the Buccaneers in Week 5) and he only scored 16 fantasy points. His inability to take advantage of his easy matchup is why the algorithm keeps him out of the elite fantasy quarterback territory. Granted, he is coming off a bye this week, but he is going up against the Lions who are the toughest-rated defense for fantasy quarterbacks and there is a large gap to even the second toughest defense. Detroit is giving up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL so far this season. That's a tough matchup for any quarterback. Owners need to start Brees but should "expect less" than his 17 fantasy points per game average. Forecast: Brees owners hoping for a second half recovery might want to temper expectations. This week is only one of three "worst" rated matchups between now and Week 13. This elite fantasy quarterback may not have the easiest road to helping you make your fantasy playoffs. He does have two "better" rated matchups in Weeks 9 and 11, though. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
Matt Ryan has been frustrating fantasy owners with his inconsistency this season. His algorithm player rating shows that he does a pretty steady job of playing to his good matchups. His two highest scoring weeks this season came against his two easiest matchups. This week he travels to Baltimore to face the Ravens, who are the eighth-toughest algorithm-rated defense for fantasy quarterbacks. In their three home games, the Ravens haven't allowed a quarterback to throw for more than one passing touchdown in a game. It has been well documented that Ryan prefers to play at home, and may be in for another down week on the road as the Ravens' pass-rushers are coming off their best game of the season. The Ravens hit Mike Glennon 15 times last week (sacking him five times as well) and now face the Falcons' tattered offensive line that ranks in the bottom third of the league in pass-blocking efficiency. Forecast: Ryan's poor production will continue until his bye week in Week 9 as he faces the Lions next week. After his bye he gets two easy matchups then four tough ones in a row after Week 11. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
RB
Branden Oliver has been a waiver-wire beast after his breakout 30 point game in Week 5 against a previously toughly-rated Jets defense. After that performance Oliver sky-rocketed up the rankings to become the algorithm's third-best running back in fantasy. Keep in mind, however, that he just barely meets the minimum snaps requirement so his rating may be deceiving. This week Oliver gets the Chiefs defense, which is a top-10 tough matchup for running backs. Even a highly-rated back like Oliver could have trouble keeping up his 13 fantasy point per game pace this week. Oliver's production has been touchdown driven and the Chiefs have given up ZERO rushing touchdowns to date, and only two backs have scored over 10 fantasy points against them. Oliver is still going to need to be in your lineups this week, but you should "expect less" than the RB1 production you have been getting from him in the last two weeks. Forecast: Local beat writers are speculating that Mathews could return after the Chargers' Week 10 bye. This would give Oliver one more "best" rated matchup next week against the Broncos and one "bad" rated matchup against the Dolphins in Week 9 before potentially splitting snaps with Mathews moving forward. Â [Recommended Usage: RB2]
Antone Smith is simply defying the numbers this year. He has scored in every one of his last four games but has yet to exceed six touches in a single game. That gives him a ridiculous 2.9 fantasy points per attempt number that has not been seen in over 10 years of fantasy player data. This also gives him a top-20 player rating. Just looking at the numbers you can assume that this is not a sustainable level of fantasy production. Consider his Week 7 opponent, the Ravens, who are top-10 in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed and are the seventh-toughest rated matchup for fantasy running backs. The most fantasy points the Ravens have given up to a running back all season was 12, and that is Smith's weekly average. Just remember that he only plays a fifth of the snaps of a typical running back, so his typical production might be hard to come by. Forecast: This week's tough matchup is the first of six to finish the season. He does have a great Week 12 matchup against the Panthers, though. Â [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
Matt Asiata appears to be losing his hold on the Vikings' starting running back job after getting out-touched by Jerick McKinnon (a higher-rated back by the algorithm) last week. Vikings head coach, Mike Zimmer, said he would like to get Asiata more touches but referenced his pass protection rather than his rushing skills. McKinnon has the algorithm's higher rating of the two backs although Asiata seems to have produced in goal-line scenarios where McKinnon produces more between the 20s. The bad news for Asiata this week is that he faces a Bills defense that is the fourth-toughest matchup for fantasy running backs. To make matters worse, he is a touchdown-dependent fantasy back since and the Bills have allowed ZERO rushing touchdowns so far this season. Asiata averages nine fantasy points per game, but the Bills have only let one running back exceed that total all year and that was the much more highly-rated Matt Forte back in Week 1. Forecast: The Vikings running backs will face seven tough matchups out of their final eight games. There is one "best" matchup in Week 13 against the Panthers, but "bad" and "worst" rated opponents waiting for him every other week. Â [Recommended Usage: SIT]
WR
T.Y. Hilton owners are feeling great since he finally found the end zone in Week 6 after leading all receivers in nearly every usage category to that point, except touchdowns. However, this matchup gets a lot tougher for Hilton as he faces the Bengals who are the algorithm's fifth-toughest rated matchup for fantasy receivers. The Bengals hold their opponents to the fewest pass attempts per game and the second lowest completion percentage per game. Last time Hilton went against a "worst" rated defense this season, he scored his season-low four fantasy points. Last week's performance shot Hilton's rating way up, but the matchup this week points to lower production. Forecast: After this week's tough matchup, Hilton has three more "bad" rated opponents in a row until his schedule clears up just in time for the fantasy playoff run in Week 12. Â [Recommended Usage: WR2]
Mohamed Sanu has been one of the most productive fantasy receivers all season. He is the algorithm's eighth-best receiver due to his ability to be productive even against tough matchups. All season he has capitalized on defenses guarding against the Bengals running game and has been even more productive since A.J. Green has been sidelined. Although he has been productive, Sanu's lowest point production of the year came against his toughest matchup. This week he faces his first "worst" matchup of the season as the Bengals travel to play the Colts. The Colts are the second-toughest rated defense for opposing fantasy receivers and have held their opponents to the lowest passing completion percentage of any defense in the NFL. Sanu has been averaging 12 fantasy points per game this season, but if you add Sanu to a list of the 20 wide receivers that have already faced the Colts this season, his player rating would be the fourth highest of the group and the player rated fifth (Emmanuel Sanders) only scored eight fantasy points against them in Week 1. Forecast: Sanu should continue to produce even when Green gets healthy. He has two very good matchups in Week 9 against the Jaguars and Week 15 against the Browns, with only three "bad" rated defenses mixed in for the rest of the season. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
TE
Travis Kelce has been a nice waiver pickup this season. The algorithm gives Kelce a decent player rating because of his ability to take advantage of his good matchups. His best three games have come against his three easiest matchups, averaging eight fantasy points against them. But when facing his two "bad" rated opponents, he only averaged six fantasy points per game. Many owners figured his breakout game in Week 4 would get him more usage in the Chiefs' game plan. Unfortunately he still only played 59 percent of the snaps in Week 5, his second-lowest snap count of the year. His fantasy points per snap number stayed the same, however, due in large part to scoring a touchdown. This week he faces the Chargers, his first "worst" rated defense against opposing fantasy tight ends. Although the Chargers have the third-toughest FPA, the algorithm rates them even tougher. No opposing tight end has scored more than seven fantasy points against the Chargers, so owners can "expect less" from Kelce this week. Forecast: Kelce gets one more "worst" rated matchup next week against the Rams and then should rebound with a "best" rated matchup against the Jets defense in Week 9. [Recommended Usage: LOW TE1]
D/ST
GB vs. CAR: The Packers fantasy defense has been on a nice two-week run of double digit scoring. This week they face a Panthers offense with a rejuvenated Cam Newton who give up less than .5 interceptions and two sacks per game. Dom Capers' scheme can be beat by a running quarterback and Cam Newton may be the best one the Packers face all year.
DET vs NO: The Lions defense is coming off its best fantasy production of the year in Week 6. This week they play host to a Saints offense that has not produced like they have in the past, but still average over 442 yards and 26 points a game. That is more than any team the Lions have faced this season.
SF at DEN: Do not let last week's big game from the 49ers lull you into playing them again this week. The numbers just do not add up. Before that Monday night game, the 49ers had only five sacks and the worst quarterback pressure percentage in the NFL. Against the Rams, they generated a lot more pressure by blitzing, but you do not blitz Peyton Manning. Manning has been pressured the second least amount of times of any NFL quarterback and his offensive line ranks fourth in pass blocking efficiency.
Week 8 Forecast:
Want to get the jump on bye weeks in Week 8? Don't wait until next week's waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty matchups before they are even on your opponents' radar:
QB:Carson Palmer vs. PHI, Ryan Tannehill at JAC, Brian Hoyer vs. OAK, Alex Smith vs. STL
RB:Isaiah Crowell vs. OAK, Bobby Rainey vs. MIN
WR:Eric Decker vs. BUF, Andre Holmes at CLE, Louis Murphy vs. MIN, Allen Robinson vs. MIN
TE:Dwayne Allen at PIT, Heath Miller vs. IND
DST:MIA at JAC, BUF at NYJ, CLE at OAK
-- Chris Anthony is a guest contributor to NFL.com, hailing from Fantasy Omatic. You can follow him on Twitter @FantasyOmatic. Be sure to check back each week for more analytics-based analysis as the algorithm will only get more accurate over time!
