The winning formula in fantasy football is simple: Acquire the most productive players with the least resistance to points production as you can.
That's why I helped create a system that predicts player performance and provides the actual strength of an opponent and actual player production values. When used, this sytem has proven to be up to 37 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.
The system gives you a "Player Rating," "Defense Rating," and a third "Matchup Rating." The ratings are based on the most advanced and accurate mathematical algorithm in fantasy football, and take into account the following factors:
» Adjusted Player scoring based on strength of their previous opponents *
*» Adjusted Defense scoring based on the strength of the players they have faced at each position *
*» Whether the player and/or defense plays better at home or away *
*» How the player compares against other players within their same position *
*» How defenses compare against other defenses against the same positions *
*» ... and many more!
Sound complicated? Don't worry -- it's simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player, defense or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. That's it. Leave the number crunching to the geeks.
Use this system as the basis for your fantasy decisions to take the guesswork out of winning in fantasy football and get the edge on the competition.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The defense ratings for this week are based on numbers from the first two weeks of the 2014 regular season. "Statistically" a two week data sample out of a 16 week fantasy season is enough to draw valuable conclusions, but it is only the minimum data sample. The data will continue to become more accurate each week. Plan on coming back for fresh algorithm-based ratings that you cannot get anywhere else!
Weekly Matchup Ranges
Below are the BEST and WORST defensive ratings against each position. The higher the number, the better the matchup:
Legend
Here's an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. "best") they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:
Expect More:
Players who could exceed expectations this week based on the weakness of their opponent.
QB
Russell Wilson's four-to-none TD-INT ratio through the first two games of 2014 has helped make him a top-10 fantasy quarterback who currently leads the league in passing accuracy (84.8 percent) and accuracy when throwing under pressure (90 percent). He is not going to get much pressure this week against a Broncos defense that, despite all their veteran additions this offseason, has started out the season as the fourth-easiest matchup for opposing fantasy quarterbacks. The Broncos are the second-easiest matchup that Wilson has faced this year, making it very likely that he exceeds his 17 fantasy point per game average against them. Start him this week over any quarterback who averages less than 20 fantasy points a game. Forecast:After Wilson's Week 4 bye, he faces mostly "bad" matchups until Weeks 10 and 11. So after this week, he'll make a better backup fantasy quarterback until Week 10. [Recommended Usage: QB1]
There is one very interesting number that could lead to an increase in Ryan Tannehill's fantasy production: seven. That is how many of his passes that have been dropped (second only to Joe Flacco), which have led to a loss of 113 yards -- more than any other quarterback. Considering Tannehill is seventh in pass attempts so far this season you can see that with a small decrease in drops he could become a lot more productive. This week he faces the Chiefs who are the fifth-easiest defense for opposing fantasy quarterbacks. His last two opponents have been either "bad" or "worst" rated and this is his first "best" rated matchup of the season. Tannehill has performed at or below the level of his opponents so far this year. This week that level is about eight fantasy points higher than his average. If you are looking for an injury fill-in or a streaming quarterback in Week 3, expect Tannehill to exceed his 12 fantasy points per game average this week against a soft Chiefs defense. Forecast: It may look like you could milk another week of production out of Tannehill in Week 4 against the Raiders, but they have actually been one of the top-10 toughest matchups for fantasy quarterbacks in the first two weeks. Consider Tannehill a one-week buy. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1/HIGH QB2]
RB
Shane Vereen will face his first "best" rated matchup of the season in Week 3 against the Raiders, a top-five easy matchup for opposing fantasy running backs. But, there are other reasons to "expect more" out of Vereen than just his average eight fantasy points per game, such as his role in the Patriots' short-range passing game. Vereen is the11th algorithm-rated running back, despite being ranked 24th in "Fantasy Points Per Game". This tells us that he can out-produce his opponent's strength. The Raiders are the fifth weakest defense against fantasy backs, so Vereen should have no problem exceeding his average scoring production this week and could possibly even post his best score of this short season. Forecast: The Raiders are Vereen's second-best matchup of the season. After Week 3, he gets two "bad" rated matchups until he starts a stretch from Week 6 to Week 13 where he faces only one defense rated tougher than "better". [Recommended Usage: RB2]
Eddie Lacy has made his fantasy owners nervous with two single-digit fantasy point games in the first two weeks. However, in those two matchups Lacy has faced two of the top three algorithm-rated toughest opposing defenses for fantasy running backs. The good news is that he has only one more "worst" rated matchup left out of his 14 remaining games. This makes him an excellent "buy low" candidate. His owners will be breathing easy after this week when he faces the Lions. The "Fantasy Points Against" show the Lions as only the 18th best matchup. Yet, if you let the algorithm adjust the defenses to their opponent strength, then you see that the Lions are actually the seventh-easiest matchup for fantasy running backs. You can expect Lacy to exceed his five fantasy points per game average and likely do no less than double it against the easier-than-you-think Lions defense. Forecast: The "buy low" time will end abruptly once Lacy gets back on track against the Lions. Then in Week 4 he faces another "better" matchup in the Bears before a stretch of "bad" matchups. After his bye in Week 9, he faces five of seven easy matchups to finish the season. [Recommended Usage: RB1]
WR
Cordarrelle Patterson gave fantasy owners high hopes for a breakout season in Week 1, but appeared to fall back down to earth in Week 2 with a single-digit fantasy performance. This was Patterson's first game since Week 12 of 2013 where he didn't score a touchdown. The algorithm tells us that this was to be expected, since in Week 1 Patterson faced a top-five easy matchup and in Week 2 he faced the third-toughest. The good news is that in Week 3 Patterson faces a "better" rated matchup when he faces the Saints. The Saints are the 11th-easiest matchup for fantasy wide receivers, even though their Fantasy Points Against make them appear even easier. Regardless, Patterson will have a very good chance to exceed his 12 fantasy points per game average since three lower-rated wide receivers have already done so against the Saints. Patterson ranks fourth in the league in "Fantasy Points Per Touch" and his touches will be plentiful in this matchup. Forecast: Next week Patterson faces the third-easiest matchup for wide receivers in the Atlanta Falcons before he hits a stretch of 10 "bad" or "worst" matchups between Week 4 and the fantasy playoffs. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
Alshon Jeffery owners likely had him on their bench in Week 2 due to his hamstring injury. Yet, Jeffery played 92 percent of the team's snaps but scored a very low four fantasy points. He was twice as productive in Week 1 when he produced .20 "Fantasy Points Per Snap" (FPPS) on a total of 36 snaps in that game. He escaped Sunday's game without injury setbacks and will hopefully be good to go for Week 3 with an extra day of rest. He should get back to his normal production against a Jets secondary that is currently the algorithm's No. 1 easiest matchup for fantasy wide receivers. This easy matchup should help him get closer to his .20 FPPS number as he once again plays over 90 percent of the team's snaps. This makes him a near lock to exceed his five fantasy points per game average and likely double it for this week. Forecast:Jeffery should get back on track after this week as he faces two more "best" rated opponents in his next four games. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
TE
There has been a lot of talk about Gronk's "pitch count" and how it could be tied to his low six fantasy points per game output. What is more likely the reason for his low fantasy production is the fact that he has faced two tough opponents against fantasy tight ends in his first two weeks. In Week 3, he faces a Raiders defense that you would expect to be an easy matchup, but their "Fantasy Points Against" ranking says they are the eighth toughest matchup for fantasy tight ends, making them even tougher than Gronk's previous two opponents. Yet, the algorithm shows that the Raiders are actually the eighth-easiest defense against tight ends. Based on how much easier this matchup is than his previous two, Gronk's snaps could remain the same as last week and he could still outscore his average. Expect his snaps to increase and for him to double his fantasy point average in this matchup. Forecast:Gronk has a couple more "bad" matchups in Week 4 and 5, but should be hitting his stride from Week 6 on when he faces six "better" or "best" matchups. [Recommended Usage: TE1]
D/ST
Expect Less:
Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.
QB
The algorithm rates Philip Rivers as the seventh-best quarterback in fantasy after two weeks. Much of that comes from his production against a weaker-than-expected Seahawks defense last week. In Week 3, Rivers faces Buffalo, who rate as middle-of-the pack against fantasy quarterbacks so far in 2014. The Bills faced one other fantasy quarterback this season with a similar rating to Rivers (Cutler) and held him to fewer fantasy points than Rivers averages weekly. Rivers is by no means a "sit" this week, but based on the production of the quarterbacks who have faced the Bills thus far this season, you can expect Rivers to have a game closer to his 13 point game in Week 1 than his 25 point game in Week 2. Forecast: Keep Rivers as your starting fantasy quarterback after this week as you can "expect more" from him as he faces three top-five easy algorithm-rated matchups in the next five games. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
You may be considering starting Alex Smith this week if you lost your starter to injury recently or are in a deep two-quarterback league. You may be thinking that the Chiefs will try to pas more without Jamaal Charles. But here is the stat that should keep you away: after two weeks, the Dolphins are the best pass rushing defense in the league and the Chiefs are the worst pass blocking team in the league. Smith has an algorithm-adjusted rating that makes him one of the least likely quarterbacks to out-perform his opponent's strength. The Dolphins are actually the algorithm-rated fourth toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. As a result, Smith should be ignored in Week 3 as he will likely regress below his 12 fantasy points per game average. Forecast:Things do not get much better in Week 4 as Smith faces the Patriots, who are the second-toughest defense for fantasy quarterbacks. Nothing to see here. [Recommended Usage: SIT
RB
Le'Veon Bell could easily be the fantasy running back MVP of the first two weeks. His 18 fantasy points per game places him in the top-five of all backs in standard scoring. So why should we "expect less" from him in Week 3? It simply boils down to his opponent, the Panthers. They appear to be middle-of-the-pack against running backs, but the algorithm actually adjusts them to the fourth-toughest matchup. No running back this year has scored more than seven fantasy points against the Panthers. Bell is easily the best-rated running back to face them so far, but expecting him to match or exceed his 18 fantasy points per game averaged might be a bit too bold. His matchup will likely cause him to produce similar or lower numbers than his Week 2 outing. The Panthers are shaping up to be one of the tougher matchups for running backs this year and this week will likely be no different. Forecast: Bell is still going to be a great starter in 2014. He only has one more "worst" rated matchup yet this year. He will face a string of four "better" or "best" matchups throughout the next six weeks. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
C.J. Spiller has been producing like a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes thus far in his first two games. His 12 fantasy points per game have been consistent each week. Yet, Spiller has not faced an opponent as tough against fantasy running backs as his Week 3 opponent, the Chargers. Fantasy Points Against rankings make the Chargers appear to be an easy top-10 matchup, but the algorithm actually adjusts them to be the No. 1 toughest defense to face for fantasy running backs. Marshawn Lynch, a much higher-rated running back, only scored 12 points on 24 snaps in Week 2. Spiller has only averaged about 23 snaps a game himself, but the numbers indicate Spiller will produce less with the same opportunities against the Chargers than Lynch had. Spiller is still start-able, but you can "expect less" production than his average due to his surprisingly tough opponent in Week 3. Forecast: Another "bad" matchup against the Texans next week might lower Spiller's average, but he then snaps back with two good matchups in Weeks 5 and 6. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
Darren Sproles, not LeSean McCoy, is the second-most productive fantasy running back so far in 2014. He scored huge points in Week 2 against the Colts after already producing a 14 point game in Week 1. Sproles has also produced an eye-popping .95 "Fantasy Points Per Snap" total that is almost double any other starting running back. These are strong RB1 numbers. So why should we expect some regression from him in Week 2? First, Sproles' Week 1 and 2 opponents rate as two of the top-10 easiest against fantasy running backs. In Week 3, he faces the Redskins, who are actually the algorithm-rated fourth-toughest defense against fantasy running backs. This is by far the most difficult matchup the Eagles' running back has faced in 2014. He will still get his 30 or so snaps a game, but his opponent's strength against his position should limit his production. You can expect a decent game from Sproles in Week 3, but just "expect less" than his nearly 20 fantasy point per game production you have seen thus far. Forecast: Dare we say that Sproles is an excellent "sell high" candidate right now? He has already faced two of his only four easy matchups so far this season and will likely not sustain his RB1 production throughout the next 14 weeks. If you can get a strong RB1 in a trade for him, take it. Â [Recommended Usage: RB3]
WR
Take a quick look at the top-scoring fantasy wide receiver list. See anything surprising? Yep, Steve Smith is among the top 10 and appears to have found new life as a Raven. He is currently the algorithm's No. 11 fantasy wide receiver despite his eighth overall fantasy points per game ranking. This is due to his weak opponent strength in his first two games this season. He has been heavily involved in the Ravens' offense so far this year, and is second in the league in targets, which is encouraging. However, you should expect less production from Smith this week as he faces the Browns. The Browns are still a decent matchup, just not as good as his previous two matchups. He may even get a little attention from Joe Haden or see defensive fronts with five or more defensive backs. All of these factors point to a regression in Week 3. He can still be started in front of any receiver that averages less than 10 fantasy points a game. Just do not expect WR1 production from him this week. Forecast: Smith's stock is going to drop a bit. After the Browns, he faces two of the top-five toughest defenses in the league. Â [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
Emmanuel Sanders has provided owners with just less than 10 fantasy points per game as a member of the high-powered Broncos offense. Sanders has played over 92 percent of the offensive snaps in each of the first two weeks and averages around .16 "Fantasy Points Per Snap". This week will be the first drop in production for him as he faces the Seahawks. The "Legion of Boom" actually adjusts to just the 13th-toughest matchup for opposing fantasy receivers. The numbers do not indicate that Sanders will be completely shut out this week, just that he will likely score closer to his Week 1 totals than his Week 2 totals. This puts him below his average production. If you also add in Welker's return you can find plenty of reasons to "expect less" from Sanders in Week 3. Forecast: Welker's return could limit Sanders' value because of fewer targets, but he and the other Broncos receivers still have their easiest matchups of the year yet to come after their Week 4 bye. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
TE
Stop, do not bench Jimmy Graham. As long as he is breathing he should be in your fantasy lineups. He is listed here simply because he faces a surprisingly tough matchup in the Vikings in Week 3. This is not to say he will be unproductive by any means, but you can likely expect less than his 16 fantasy points per game average this week. The Vikings held fellow fantasy stud Rob Gronkowski to just three fantasy points last week and have not allowed any fantasy tight end to score more than six points against them yet this year. This drives their algorithm-adjusted rating into the top-five toughest range. Graham is still a beast and should be started at all costs. But if you are going up against him this week, you might actually get out of the week without Graham single-handedly destroying you. Double digits are still likely, just not anything like his 23 fantasy points from Week 2. Forecast: Graham will only face two more tough matchups this season after Week 3. He should be the centerpiece of your fantasy team every week after this one . [Recommended Usage: TE1]
D/ST
BAL vs CLE: The Browns' offense may be a good matchup for your fantasy defense in name only. In reality, the numbers show that they have only allowed two sacks a week, zero interceptions and score more than 26 points a game while racking up an average of over 350 yards. In addition, the Ravens D/ST is a little banged up. Avoid this matchup for the Ravens' defense.
Week Four Forecast:
Want to get the jump on bye weeks in Week 4? Don't wait until next week's waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty match ups before they are even on your opponents' radar:
QB:Kirk Cousins vs. NYG
RB:Lamar Miller at OAK, Shonn Greene at IND
WR:Golden Tate at NYJ, James Jones vs. MIA
TE:Delanie Walker at IND, Clay Harbor at SD
DST: WAS at NYG, SD at JAX
-- Chris Anthony is a guest contributor to NFL.com, hailing from Fantasy Omatic. You can follow him on Twitter @FantasyOmatic. Be sure to check back each week for more analytics-based analysis as the algorithm will only get more accurate over time!
