Chris Johnson is coming off one of the best fantasy seasons for a running back in the history of the National Football League. Not only did he lead his position in rushing yards with an amazing 2,006, but Johnson also broke Marshall Faulk's single-season record for scrimmage yards (2,509) and finished with a solid 16 total touchdowns. He also led the world in fantasy points and is now considered the consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2010 drafts. And really, it's hard not to hand him that sort of status after having such a monster year.
He's young, explosive and one of the true featured running backs left in the National Football League.
But if the past is any indicator, Johnson isn't going to duplicate his impressive 2009 numbers. Let's jump aboard fantasy football's version of the DeLorean time machine from Back to the Future and head to 1973, when O.J. Simpson became the first running back to ever rush for 2,000-plus yards in a season. In 1974, Simpson barely reached the 1,100-yard rushing mark and scored eight fewer total touchdowns. Now let's fast forward to 1984, when Eric Dickerson made absolute mincemeat of opposing defenses.
The graceful superstar rushed for 2,105 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Los Angeles Rams. If fantasy football were thriving then like it is now, Dickerson would have been the consensus top pick in 1985 drafts. He went on to rush for 871 fewer yards that year. Moving ahead to 1997, Barry Sanders ran over, through and around defenders for an impressive 2,053 yards. Incredibly, he accomplished that feat at the age of 29. Sanders did rush for a solid 1,491 yards the following year (and what would be his final NFL season), but that was still over 550 fewer rushing yards then he recorded the previous year. The Hall of Famer also scored 10 fewer total touchdowns in 1998.
While Sanders' fantasy appeal was fading, the value of Terrell Davis was on the rise.
The Broncos running back was an absolute monster in the stat sheets, rushing for 2,008 yards and 21 touchdowns as the centerpiece of Mike Shanahan's offense. Unfortunately, Davis was an enormous bust the following year with 211 yards on the ground. The final runner to reach the 2,000-yard mark before Johnson was Jamal Lewis, who posted 2,006 and scored 14 touchdowns for the Ravens in 2003. The following year, he rushed for just 1,006 yards (12 games) and scored a mere seven times. Overall, the average drop in production after a 2,000-yard season is over 1,000 yards. (Not a misprint).
While it might not be a bold statement to predict a decrease in Johnson's yardage numbers in 2010, the fact that the previous five running backs to hit the 2,000-yard mark averaged such a huge decline is notable. It also needs to be mentioned that Johnson could be on the verge of a holdout over contractual issues. He's sitting out all pre-training camp activities and has reportedly not been contacted by the team about a new contract. He's currently entering the third year of his rookie deal and is scheduled to make a mere $550,000 in 2010. Johnson is also adamant that he is prepared to hold out for an extended period of time if his demands aren't met.
"I can't play for $550,000," Johnson told the *Nashville Tennessean*. "The money that I am playing for, I am getting paid less than the starting 11 (on offense) and I'm one of the lowest paid starting running backs in the league."
If Johnson decides to hold out, it's going to be a major cause for concern in fantasy circles. Not only does a decrease in statistical success seem imminent based on past running backs who've rushed for 2,000-plus yards, but owners would also have to worry about the negative trend of runners who sit out of camp over contractual issues. Outside of Emmitt Smith (1993), most backs that have protested a "financial difference of opinion" by not practicing with his team during training camp have been doomed to post less-than-stellar numbers.
The two most recent examples are Larry Johnson (2007) and Steven Jackson (2008).
Johnson held out training camp for a new deal after rushing for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns during the 2006 campaign. He would eventually agree on a new contract, but his numbers took a nose dive. Whether it was the "Curse of 370", the holdout or a combination of the two, Johnson missed eight games due to injury in 2007 and finished with a mere 559 yards on the ground and a combined four touchdowns.
Jackson, dissatisfied with his deal, was a no show for Rams training camp the following year. Like L.J., he would come to agreement on a deal but still missed valuable time during camp. The result was a 2008 campaign that saw him rush for a mediocre 1,042 yards while missing four games due to injuries.
Since it's only June, it's not time to push the panic button when it comes to Chris Johnson. There's still plenty of time for a contract to be done. But if this situation gets even more contentious in the weeks and months to come, it could be Adrian Peterson, not Johnson, who becomes the consensus No. 1 overall pick on draft day.
If you consider the fate of the previous 2,000-yard running backs, A.D. might be the better choice regardless.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com. Have a burning question for Michael on anything fantasy football related? Leave it in our comments section or send it to **AskFabiano@nfl.com**!
