I have the second overall selection in a standard scoring league. Assuming that Adrian Peterson will be taken first, I will have to choose between Matt Forte and Maurice Jones-Drew. I know you have Forte ranked second, but I think Jones-Drew has more upside. Any thoughts? -- J. Briane, Oklahoma City.
Michael Fabiano: I think it's well-documented that I prefer Forte ahead of Jones-Drew in both standard and PPR leagues, but these backs are very close in value. In fact, I've seen Forte and Jones-Drew come off the board first overall (ahead of Peterson) in PPR expert leagues. I honestly don't think you can go wrong with either runner. Since this will be your fantasy team, it should have your staple on it. So if you like Jones-Drew and think he has more upside, the difference between the two players is so small that I think you should take him. Again, if it were me I'd be taking Forte -- I see him as the better overall option now that Jay Cutler is under center for the Bears.
I'm in a keeper league and need to retain three players from Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Larry Fitzgerald. I'm thinking of keeping two backs and Fitzgerald, but which two backs should I choose? Thanks Mike. -- D. Grigoletti Jr., Fulton, Ill.
M.F.: I agree that keeping Fitzgerald and two backs is the right decision. I think Jones-Drew is the best option among the trio of runners, but the second depends on the scoring system. If you're in a standard league or one that is based on touchdowns, Turner should be retained. However, I'd prefer Johnson if the league rewards points for receptions. The Titans running back has had a good offseason and is expected to see more work, both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.
I have a dilemma that needs to be addressed in my keeper league. I can retain five players from Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, LaDainian Tomlinson, Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson. I like Cutler and seeing as this is a 10-team league I think dropping a quarterback would leave me stranded at the position. I was thinking of dropping either Slaton or Tomlinson, but we also use a flex position so I would lose a key player. Help! -- S. Lemay, Canada
M.F.: I realize you don't want to part ways with Cutler, but I think you have to in his case. You don't want to lose the great depth you have at the running back position with Forte, Slaton and Tomlinson, and Boldin and Johnson are an impressive one-two punch at wide receiver. Depending on your draft position, you should be able to re-acquire Cutler or a quarterback of similar value in the first or second round of the re-draft. If you think most teams will retain a quarterback, then the position won't be targeted as much in those rounds.
I'm in a PPR league with the same guys every year. I've noticed now for the last three years that my buddies all seem to be enamored with quarterbacks. Basically, they're drafting one in the first three rounds even though our scoring system doesn't really justify such a move. I always land an additional stud running back or wide receiver, but it also means that I'm stuck with a mediocre quarterback at best since there's no good ones left in the fifth or sixth rounds. So far I've been faithful to my own strategy, but I'm wondering what your take on this is? Should I do as the rest of my buddies do and draft a quarterback in the early rounds, or should I stick to my own logic? -- T. Vedel, Hungary
M.F.: The question I have for you is, how have you done in the past with your own personal strategy? Is that lack of a superstar quarterback hurting your chances of being competitive? If you're landing an additional stud running back or wide receiver, I doubt that your teams have been unable to compete in a league where the scoring system doesn't heavily favor quarterbacks. Keep in mind that there are only a handful of "elite" quarterbacks heading into this season, so most fantasy owners will have to start a second-tier quarterback such as Tony Romo or Matt Ryan. If these players are going in the first three rounds (that's far too soon), I'd still sit back and wait until the fourth or fifth round before I targeted the position. There's no reason to believe you can't land someone like Jay Cutler or Donovan McNabb.
Michael, what is your opinion on drafting the backups for your starting running backs? I'm in a PPR league and hold the top overall pick. Conventional wisdom says I should take Adrian Peterson, but then I'll have to use another pick in Rounds 9-11 to take Chester Taylor. If I took Matt Forte or Maurice Jones-Drew, I wouldn't have to take their backup until the final round. What do you think? -- C. Fiore, New York.
M.F.: I don't think you should base your first-round choice on the value of their backup. Peterson is the top pick in all drafts to me, regardless of whether it's a standard or PPR format. What's more, you shouldn't see the Peterson-Taylor situation as a negative. The fact that A.P. has such a talented and experienced backup like Taylor should just add to his value. I was actually in an experts league this week with the first pick and took Peterson. I was able to land Taylor with the last pick in the 10th round. I think that's pretty good value for the veteran back. If Peterson sustains some long-term ailment, you would lose less statistically by inserting Taylor into your starting lineup compared to replacing Forte with Kevin Smith or Jones-Drew with Greg Jones, Chauncey Washington or Rashard Jennings.
Hey Mike, I just started putting together my draft board for our 10-team league and I'm thinking Trent Edwards will be the most valuable sleeper. What round do you think he'll be drafted? I plan to target Drew Brees (Round 1), Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers (Round 2 or 3) as my starter and then look to add Edwards in the later rounds. What do you think? -- J. Gillespie, Orlando, Fla.
M.F.: Edwards came off the board in the 12th round in the aforementioned experts league draft I was in this week. He was taken in the 10th round of NFL.com's standard mock draft and in the 12th round of our PPR mock draft. The Bills quarterback certainly does have some serious sleeper appeal with the combination of Terrell Owens and Lee Evans at his disposal. He could turn out to be a nice low-end starter or matchup-based option in larger leagues.
Hi Mike, I love your columns and advice and feel we see eye to eye on a lot of things in the wonderful world of fantasy football. I'm in a 10-team PPR league and hold the fifth overall pick. I think Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew and Michael Turner will be taken with the top four picks. Do I take a stud wide receiver or a running back? I'm leaning towards Frank Gore or Chris Johnson. Any advice? -- E. Campbell, Vannest, Ohio
M.F.: As I mentioned earlier in this edition of the mailbag, I expect Johnson to make a greater impact in Tennessee next season. He's been working on improving his already-incredible speed during the offseason and figures to see an even more prominent role for coach Jeff Fisher, who admitted that he didn't completely unleash Johnson as a rookie. With that said, I'd take Johnson ahead of Gore with the fifth pick. Because this is a smaller league, I'd target a stud wide receiver in the second round and a second running back and wide receiver in the third and fourth rounds. You should be able to wait on a quarterback until the fifth or sixth round.
I currently have Correll Buckhalter as a reserve running back, but both Shonn Greene and LeSean McCoy are available. I don't think Buckhalter receives enough credit for his skills, but Knowshon Moreno seems likely to start. Who would you prefer, the veteran or the rookies? Thanks. -- B. Sheridan, Wayne, Pa.
M.F.: I tend to go with a younger player over a veteran in most cases, and this one is no different. While I do think Buckhalter is a talented back, he'll turn 31 next season and will be no better than a committee back with Moreno and LaMont Jordan in the mix. I think Moreno will top the depth chart sooner rather than later and become a viable No. 2 fantasy runner during his rookie season, a sentiment that our Adam Rank also shares. McCoy, one of the most talented rookies in the 2009 class, is a better reserve option. He's one Brian Westbrook injury away from being a viable fantasy starter, and Westbrook will be 30 at the start of the season and is coming off ankle and knee surgeries.
Hey Michael, I think Earl Bennett could be an amazing sleeper pick this year. With Bennett and Jay Cutler having already played on the same team at Vanderbilt, do you think that Bennett could become the go-to guy over Devin Hester? -- L. McNaule, Canada
M.F.: I definitely see Bennett as a super sleeper and well worth a late-round flier in all drafts. However, I don't think he'll overtake Hester as the No. 1 wide receiver in Chicago. While he still has to polish his route running, Hester continues to make progress in his transition from defensive back to wideout. In fact, Bears coaches think he's turned the corner as a receiver. Remember, he hauled in 25 passes in the final six games of last season, and now he has Jay Cutler under center. While there's no guarantee he'll emerge into a 1,000-yard receiver, Hester is still a more valuable choice than Bennett.
I have been offered Marshawn Lynch for Reggie Bush in a standard scoring league. I'd choose Lynch hands down if it weren't for the suspension, but is Bush too inconsistent to make this deal work? I also have Matt Forte, Jamal Lewis, Kevin Smith and Derrick Ward. Thanks! -- K. Scoble, Australia
M.F.: Lynch has appealed his three-game suspension and could see a reduction, though there are no guarantees because he's a repeat offender of the NFL's personal conduct code. Regardless, I would make this trade. Bush has less value in a standard league with no points for receptions, and his proneness to injury makes him a risk/reward back. Bush hasn't played in more than 12 games since his rookie season and he is coming off microfracture knee surgery, so there's a chance he could play fewer games than Lynch despite the suspension. If you do make the deal before the draft, be sure to target Fred Jackson in the middle to late rounds. You already have backfield depth, but adding Jackson as insurance can't hurt.
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